Spiral Knights - Thought experiment for the crazies

Thought experiment for the crazies

15 replies [Last post]

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 04:55

Skold-The-Drac

20kce = 49.95 if you buy it all.

Many people are willing to buy an ASI VH Gran Faust (Just one UV ticket from Punch could bless you with this no-less, 26kcr + 1200ce + 20 Jelly Gems + unbind of 3600ce) for 25kce

Let's review this for those of you that think the price of CE is too dang high.

I could farm JK for a single token item, Get lucky and roll ASI Very High on Punch ONCE, then go to unbind a GF (less valuable than DA supposedly), and in essence be equipped with an over $50 sword.

Let's run this in another different light.

Elder scrolls: Skyrim < ASI VH GF in monetary value and is thereby theoretically tradeable under the conditions set by the SK economy.

And you believe you get paid too little by OOO for your hard work?

heheheheh chure you do.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 05:57

Brychan

I agree: I have a suspicion

I agree: I have a suspicion that most of the people who want the price of CE lowered are people who do not support the game with $.

F2P does not mean, never support the developers of games you play and love. OOO reward people very well with promos and the game is still great if you are low on $.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 07:11

Canine-Vladmir

^Brychan?

whaaaa? your theory is off my friend. I want CE lowered and Im a P2P.

anyway. if a Super Duper Gran Faust in USD is 50bucks, plus if you wasted money in the past, its like buying a retail game plus a few DLCs. If i had 50bucks to spare, i would leave this h***hole and go buy me a real game :) (there gonna make DOOM 3 Remastered!!!!! Whooooo!)

lol, OOOs business model is insanely perfect. make a F2P game and make the buyers buy doubles of what the game is worth. plus you get a huge free population to attract ppl in. Coolio to you Three Rings.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 07:44

Bopp

but expected payoff is still bad

Skold-The-Drac, by your reasoning I would be nuts not to buy a $1 ticket for a $1,000,000 lottery. I mean, think of the payoff that I might get!

What you're omitting is the chances of getting that payoff. In probability theory, the *value* of an event and the *probability* of that event happening combine into a single concept called *expected value*. It basically gets at: If I try this many, many times, then how much do I earn, on average? (Occasionally I will earn a lot, but usually I will earn very little.)

When you craft, you have about a 1/10 chance of getting a UV. On a weapon, you have a 1/8 chance of that UV being ASI. You also have about a 1/20 chance of that UV being +4. Assuming that these events are independent, you have a 1/1,600 chance of getting ASI+4.

So suppose you proceed by farming RJP and crafting all of those Sealed Swords into Fausts. You expect to craft 1,600 times, for a total cost of 640,000 energy (plus crowns and materials). Of course, your costs are defrayed somewhat because you can sell all of the bad Fausts you make, and you're earning money while farming RJP. On the other hand, you're also spending gobs of time for the farming and heating. Purely economically, that time would be better spent farming FSC probably. Of course, there is also your enjoyment to think of.

In short, the details are hard to pin down, but the 25,000 CE figure sounds great only until you think about the the 640,000 CE figure. Three Rings has made money by engineering low-probability, high-reward features into the game. The conventional name for this business model is "gambling".

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:16

Brychan

@Canine-Vladmir - This is an

@Canine-Vladmir - This is an MMO, not a stand-alone game, servers do not host themselves, game updates do not magically happen from a one-off purchase - to play a game like this someone needs to support it financially and that should be its player base. You wouldn't want CE price lowered if you P2P.... and you just proved it by saying you would rather spend your money elsewhere if you had it (doom3? sure I bet you would get max 10 hrs playtime out of that terrible dead-horse of a franchise).

Either way OOO are clever enough to see through this and I hope for them, they have a good business model because they deserve it for making a great game. Stop crying about CE being expensive, drop $10 and be 'rich' in game... and if you squander your $ then its hardly the games fault? (however tempting rolling for UV is I would honestly avoid it until have a solid set of gear you can enjoy the game with!

I can't wait for the promo, and to be rich in-game! No doubt the CE/CR price will drop tho :-(

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:26

Darkbrady

Actually, I'm p2p and think

Actually, I'm p2p and think CE should be lowered; what does that say about me?

Either way though, OOOs business model works well, compared to many other MMOs anyways. I'd much rather a static craft cost rather than a 80% chance the craft would fail and destroy the item, and requiring an expensive CS item to prevent the destruction when it fails...ten times. They always, always cost more than games such as this.

Back on topic, I have to agree with Bopp. Assuming you get lucky and grab something easily off-hand, then sure you can get a lot of money out of it, but there's no way you could reasonably "farm" that situation. That is literally a lottery-winning situation.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:34

Canine-Vladmir

What are you on?

"I want CE lowered and Im a P2P."
never did i mention, CE is expensive as crap. im gonna cry about it now and make a thread regarding all about it. epic facepalm over here.

note: in every f2p game, i always drop money into it. even though i would like to take back what i did with Cityville ._.
In SK, i already have enough weapons and gears. Technically i dont need anymore money. i now use CE just for a random weapon, promo or some runs. so yes i would like to see CE dropped for everyone. oh yea, saying Id's DOOM was terrible was a huge mistake you did. Now im pretty sure im talking to some 11yr old kid. actually i really dont have to explain myself to some guy who doesnt know anything.

"terrible dead-horse of a franchise"? wow.....just wow.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:35

Canozo

One does not simply roll ASI VH.
I think theres 1 chance in a million.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:58

Brychan

@Dark: I dont know, I am

@Dark: I dont know, I am confused - you want less for your money? Next promo you get come to me and I will buy your CE for less than the market value :-D

@Canine: I apologise, I must have been thinking of all the moaners about the price of CE whilst I wrote that last paragraph. Also I guess you would want the price of CE lowered because you feel its too expensive? Not too cheap? As for Doom, Doom was great, but that team is no longer with us and Doom 3 was a shadow of what was: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YreEwtV7D0 - I started playing PC games when Quake came out, enjoyed HL1, Q2, Q3, UT, yada yada, and Doom 3 was a shadow of what it was. Doom 3 < Doom 1

@Canozo: It's true its down to luck. I witnessed a friend of mine get Divine Valk Wings in his first lockbox - he has only played the game for 10hrs and hasn't been back since.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:02

Bopp

One does not simply roll ASI VH. I think theres 1 chance in a million.

I've already explained in post #3 that the chance is roughly 1 in 1,600 (by our current best data).

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:11

#10

Skold-The-Drac

@bopp

I know that the probability of it is low. This is why i posted this,as a thought experiment instead of "get rich quick".

And you have to admit, 50 bucks from a game for a single sword that's only a bit faster to swing is pretty dang genious /end sarcasm.

i don't think i'm promoting gambling just letting people know what is possible.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 20:41

#11

Skold-The-Drac

@bopp

I know that the probability of it is low. This is why i posted this,as a thought experiment instead of "get rich quick".

And you have to admit, 50 bucks from a game for a single sword that's only a bit faster to swing is pretty dang genious /end sarcasm.

i don't think i'm promoting gambling just letting people know what is possible.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 07:40

#12

Bopp

no problem here

And you have to admit, 50 bucks from a game for a single sword that's only a bit faster to swing is pretty dang genious /end sarcasm.

I definitely agree with you there.

I wasn't trying to flame you. You weren't trying to promote gambling. Cheers.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 08:13

#13

Fehzor

Why waste time grinding the jelly gems when you can just buy a lottery ticket? That's a far better payout, and under your logic, a perfectly plausible one.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 09:44

#14

Bopp

Apparently post #3 doesn't display in some browsers. ;)

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 18:27

#15

Skold-The-Drac

/agree bopp

Neither the posts #10 & 11 (Double post ftf)

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Thought experiment for the crazies