http://i1218.photobucket.com/albums/dd408/TheNewTeddy/banked.png
You'll note that I have a lot of CR and CE "banked" in the market. This is for two reasons.
1 - The primary reason for me is I have no impulse control. If I am in the auction house or the coliseum and I need or want some CR or CE, I will use it if I have it. By putting it safely in this 'bank' I don't have quick access to it in the "heat of the moment" and am thus less likely to spend it willy nilly.
2 - Profit. This is the big one. Firstly, take a look at this thread here:
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/67085
And note that when certain things change (like being able to buy stuff for CE and not USD) the market balance changes radically. Keep this in mind. Any sort of 'change' the the 'economics' of the game can have a large impact on the market. It is easy to think of Crowns as "money" and CE as "not-money", or worse, to think of CE as "money" and Crowns as "not-money" but in reality, both are "not-money". Exchange is like asking how many bottles of mustard you are willing to trade for how many bottles of ketchup. You need to ask some of the following questions:
A - Do people around here like Mustard or Ketchup more?
B - Are there any hot new foods that use Mustard or Ketchup?
C - How can one obtain Mustard and Ketchup?
CE is obtained from USD. Crowns are obtained from playing the game.
The current balance has not changed in some time. There is nothing 'new' to impact the balance in the market.
Everyone wants to get their hands on CE when they can.
What does this mean? Well, as I said earlier, keep an eye on anything that can change the balance. The market currently balances out around 9,000 CR per 100 CE. Should they make things purchasable with CE over USD, that will change, perhaps to 13,000, or perhaps to 18,000. I don't know, but I do know that CE will suddenly become more valuable (it can buy more things) so there will be less of it, while the number of CR remains the same, relatively speaking.
So what could drive down the cost of CE? Any kind of special deal in the exchange of USD for CE. Also, if there are less crowns floating around, there will be less to buy CE with and that will drive down the price. A change in game mechanics to distribute less CR, or, a loss of players will have this effect.
So what do you do with this information?
The most important thing is trying to figure out where, approximately, the market will balance out in two days.
Lets look at everything above, and, at the pic showing the current numbers. Where should the market balance in 2 days?
Just about where it is right now.
Maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower, but in general, where it is right now is where it should balance in two days.
Why is this important?
That's how you are going to make your money.
Note my "sell" offers. 15,000 is far above the current price, and that's my lowest offer. So why am I offering this?
There have been reports of both the balance going down a bit
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/67081
and up a large number
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/2726?page=5#comment-538065
so spikes and dips do and will occur. But, the important thing, is if you think the market will go back in a few days? Cash in.
Should my offer of 15,000 ever be taken, the idea is that by the next day, the market will be back at 9,000. I will then be able to turn my 10 units of 100 CE into 16 units of 100 CE. Or in other words, turn 1,000 CE into 1,300 CE and 21,000 CR without clicking a single button while offline.
TL;DR?
Buy low, sell high.
