Spiral Knights - Benefits of buying CE, during a promotion! Calculations Included - 752 CE/$ VS 400 CE/$ *Final Total Includes Promotion Values*

Benefits of buying CE, during a promotion! Calculations Included - 752 CE/$ VS 400 CE/$ Final Total Includes Promotion Values

17 replies [Last post]

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 22:38

Hungran

Notice how OOO has set the official rate at 400 CE/$ on the wiki page (found in a later link). However these values can change during a promotion where you can get more "Bang for your buck", assuming you sell the promotion item(s), and at the rate given through averages in the recent past.

Disputes over how much CE is in dollars (american) have been brought up over time, such as July-Zerg's mega sale as well as (I believe) Rhip's, where some accused the rates of CE per dollar absurd (where I stand neutral). Further CE to dollar uncertianties have been brought up through Steam Trading, where it may be difficult to calculate their actual values. However, this post is not endorsed by OOO and is ultimately MY OPINION. Others may dispute their reasonings and calculations as posts.

Current CE/CR rate is about 100 CE/ 9000 CR

What we have in the begining is OOO's rate of 20,000 CE per 50.00 $ American: http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Billing_FAQ
20,000/50 = 400 CE/$

However, it is open to speculation, because NOT all CE sales are at a rate of 20,000 CE per 50.00$, where other prices include different amounts of CE. Again found at: http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Billing_FAQ.

And still, we haven't calculated the values of the items included in a promo (e.g. mist tanks, heat amps, etc.). So in order to calculate the value of a Starter Pack, we must evaluate the items:

5 Mist Tanks - 95 CE each (mist isn't of the same value of CE, because of its lack of versatility)
1 Heat Amp - Assumed 7 days (unspecified duration by the wiki: http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Starter_pack) - 25,000 CR - 278 CE
2 Trinket Slot Upgrade - 6,000 CR (VIA auction house) - 70 CE (Both Trinket and Weapon Slots have different values than of Kozma's due to mist usage)
2 Weapon Slot Upgrade - 14,000 CR (VIA auction house) - 156 CE
1 Static Flash (Value Cannot Be Determined)
1 Green Ward (Vale Cannot Be Determined)

In addition to the above - 7500 CE is included: Static Flash and Green Ward not included
X - Variable that represents the number of each item included

(Mist Tank)(X) + (Heat Amp)(X) + (Trinket Slot)(X) + (Weapon Slot)(X) + (CE Included)
(95)(5) + (278) + (70)(2) + (156)(2) + (7500)
475 + 278 + 140 + 312 + 7500
8705 CE

Now we conert CE to dollars:
8705/20 = 435 CE/$ *Evaluation was subject to buyer selling at prices evaluated*

Look! The value is different from OOO's. So we have determined for sure that the real rate IS different from OOO's, but are we done?

With Promotions: Subject to MY OPINION, as some reasonably dispute that promotion values are incalculable

Remember, that OOO does release promos from time to time... Looking Back at the past three: Nemesis, Hunter, and Surge promotions, each item included (Promotion Prize Box), went for approximiately 250,000 CR - 320,000 CR (This Value is open to discussion). From these values we take an average of about 285,000 CR/Box. So we convert CE - CR using the current rate, each box comes out to about 3167 CE/Box.

And with these promos, one box was included for every 10$ spent.

Therefore (in the starter pack promo's) the total CE given is as follows:
8705 CE (default) + (3167)(2 Boxes)
8705 + 6334
15,039 CE

Now Calculate again
CE/Dollar = 15,039 CE/20 $
752 CE/$

So the official total comes to 752 CE per DOLLAR! *During a promotion event with CE values as seen recently*

Have any opnions, comments, or suggestions (grammatical or evaluational)? Feel free to comment or make your own calculations. Thanks for reading ~

Maybe Ill add a guardians armor pack promotion CE/$ Calculation Later

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 07:55

Hungran

Reserved

Reserved for future use

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 08:32

Asukalan

Reserved

Reserved for things that never come

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 08:56

Eltia

Cooperstown, ND

If I recall correctly, starter pack doesn't count towards energy package and so you won't be getting any boxes with it.

What you could do, however, is purchase a Party Pack (which consists of four starter packs), gift three starter packs to three of your friends and have them resell the CE back to you at a very friendly rate (they are your friends after all, right?). This would probably give you a much better bang for your buck (CE / $) without getting into trouble with the GMs.

From my recollection though, I think my best bang for buck experience was with the Dragon Wings promo. I think I managed somewhere around 735 CE / $ with a single purchase.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:35

Hemsy-Mule

Reserved to talk about the other close market's influence

The problem is that SK' steam accounts enable STEAM TRADE, and by the time I've learned that there is a lot of knights who trade their CE for :
-Team Fortress 2 Stuff
- Steam Games
These are two big markets making part of SK's one now, by the number of the trades between them & I think you can deduce a general $ price by the most expensive / best regulated market.

IN MY OPINION :
TF2 market is this one, because of websites like TF2 spreadsheet, etc
(i don't play this game so don't throw up your hate and please explain if i'm wrong)

And because of the LACK OF CONSTANCY of SK's CE market, wich fork can have a 1000cr difference in a day and maybe a 2000cr raise difference which stay every month due to "some naughty childish-trader's gameplay" & all the various CE promotions 000 make in different forms.
( to make like there is a story after farming the duke, like waiting to play sims mode ? sry ... hum this taste bitter isn't it ? I stop.)

So all in all here is my paper of the time I was selling things :
1 ref -> 300/350 CE -> 0,5$
1 key -> 700/900 CE ( 1 TF2 key : 2,66 ref )
( i sold TF2earbuds wich value didn't moved in quite a few months : 21,5k CE)

Talking about SteamTrade games, just go in the Bazaar section, check the prices and compare Steam'$ price/CE .
This could be very interesting to compare a median TF2/$ & SK-CE/SteamGames if someone have the bravery to make one for us gentlemen who want to know the exact price of a welfare ...

Let's compare to OOO price to see, but I think OP should'nt rest up on these because i think they are more expensive.

For me getting new games is the utility value of this CE market, indexed on TF2's one.
May I finally ask if there are some other games with steamtrade or any virtual (or not) market places where these currency apply with any profit, other than pure happiness to own these currency?

(Long post and I've maybe made many mistakes, please excuse me, i'm a french guy :p)

TLDR : CE/$ is influenced by TF2 ref price of 0,5$ and SteamTrade system a lot, just check the Bazaar forum.

PS : I never traded in the way to get real money, i find this unethical and risky even if i don't know what OOO politic is about this; and relatively to the steam trade system and his consequences, may a GM enlighten us ?

(>")> Hemsy.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:21

Vesperaldus

All right, JUST from looking

All right, JUST from looking at your end result of personal calculations from Starter Packs and Promos that come with prize boxes, I have calculated a new price of each of these to keep the "official" constant of 400 CE/$.
Starter Pack Without Prize Boxes: $54.38
Starter Pack With Prize Boxes: $94.00

Now considering that the market fluctuates (duh), are you suggesting that OOO fluctuates the price of CE packs so that the "standard" can remain "official" and "not" absurd? Uh... in my opinion THAT is more absurd.

Next, when a CE pack comes with promotional items, this is the same concept as a sale of "buy one get one free." Or, "buy this and get something else of equal or lesser value for free." So in other words, you are buying a CE pack and getting bonuses for free. It can be considered a gift for buying CE. And of course the gifts would be of some value, so as Eltia said, "better bang for your buck," but it's not something that can be used as a conversion rate.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:40

Eltia

Cooperstown, ND

Accessories are like "bets". If you manage to unlock the right ones (usually the ones that have a 1% chance to obtain), you can win big. But if you look at the probability that OOO has released, it's not difficult to infer that most of the times, people do not win big. So the prize boxes contribution to CE value should be pretty small to most people. I wouldn't even count on it into calculation.

And after one year of the arrival of accessories, people have lots of choices now. There are still a couple that are highly sought after (e.g. tabards and chaps) but as more accessories are being released, the actual value of accessories overall would get diluted. You can still make a good gain on them of course if you manage to obtain a good one and trade at the right time (e.g. hours right after release of a promo).

I believe the fallacy here is that people tend to look for the maximum gain scenario and neglected the common scenario (which is that your gain isn't as good as you think it would be). I would suggest leave boxes and accessories out of the CE calculation altogether.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:43

Hungran

@Above

@Eltia: I think the best promo was the Explorer Pack & Guardians Armor Pack Promo (When it included FOUR nemesis boxes instead of TWO). In future additions (hence the reserved space for archive) I'll include the Guardian and Explorer Promo, and maybe a comparison of the Dragon VS Valkrie Wing Promo :D

@Hemsy-Mule: I was thinking about doing a Spiral Knights - TF2 conversion, although I'm not into the TF2 market. I only know that my friends are obsessed with HATS & BUDS

@Hollows: Yes, I admit my final calculations pretained to CE/$ when purchased during a promotion, I'll specify that now. However, I still think it can be included in the total conversion rate, because like many others, I simply resell the promotion items. Again, ultimiately my opinion as you are entitled to yours. And the context in which I noted the word "absurd" is not my opinion of the rates which OOO has established for CE/$, it is pointed towards to those whom accused July's mega sale at an "absurd" price (again I remain neutral). Sorry for the inconvienience, if you would like, I can rewrite the post at a later date, to represent a less biased perspective.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:03

Darkbrady

Is this a thread out of

Is this a thread out of interest or practicality? I ask, because you can't state that the average players CE/£ value is higher based on the rate of promos that can only be purchased once and contain consumeables. They won't contribute at all to the overall value of CE in the context of trading within the game; you can only look at persistent packages purchased; the CE bundles and the Explorers (since they seem to have decided that that's to be a permanent promo).

I agree that the 20k one can't be the baseline because not enough people would get it on average; I suspect the 3k or 7k ones to be the most commonly purchased, and therefore majority source of CE in the game, thus closer to the average value of CE in the game.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I just couldn't help but see that as a flaw in the logic. Unless, ofc, you're just doing this as a question of OOOs interpretation of the value between promos, I'm unsure~

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:21

Knight-Solaire

Praise the sun! \o/

To find the 'true, official' price for CE you'd need to know the sales statistics over a great period of time (such as, between now and the time the game went public). Calculate the CE/$ rate for each package, and find what percentage of each package constitutes the total number of packages sold. An arbitrary, made-up example follows to illustrate my point.

Assume the following four packages are available:
750 CE for $2.45 - 306.12 CE/$ - constitutes 25% of all sales
1600 CE for $4.95 - 323.23 CE/$ - constitutes 50% of all sales
3500 CE for $9.95 - 351.76 CE/$ - constitutes 20% of all sales
20000 CE for $49.95 - 400.40 CE/$ - constitutes 5% of all sales

The weighted average of the 'official' price becomes (.25)(306.12) + (.5)(323.23) + (.2)(351.76) + (.05)(400.40) = 328.52 CE/$

Across all sales made by OOO in this example, on average CE would be purchased at a rate of 328.52 CE/$. This is an oversimplified example that ignores promotions and CE values of items, but it serves to illustrate my point. You cannot simply take one package offered and assume that it is the 'official' price. You need to know detailed sales statistics to know what the exact 'official' average is, and since those are unavailable to use then we the player base cannot claim that we know the official average.

I'm of the opinion that we shouldn't be using an 'official' average for player-to-player trades anyways as the street value/effective value differs greatly from the values set out by OOO, but that's not a point I'm here to argue. At the very least, we shouldn't be trying to use an 'official' average on the basis that we cannot actually know it to begin with (unless OOO decides to release detailed business statistics, which is unlikely).

EDIT: Made it more clear that my example isn't done with real numbers, I just made them up for the sake of example.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:46

#10

Vesperaldus

@Hungran: You missunderstand,

@Hungran: You missunderstand, which probably had its roots in my own misunderstanding. I was asking if thats what you suggested to do in order to fix others' opinion about it being absurd. Yes, you clearly stated that you yourself are neutral about that issue, it was clear enough. And I thank you for being neutral. Being neutral doesn't (usually) add to a controversy.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:50

#11

Hungran

@Above

@Darkbrady Maybe I should change the thread to the benefits of buying CE, during a promo rather than not in one

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:06

#12

Hungran

@Above

@Hallows Thanks for your feed back. Anyways would you (or anyone else reading this comment) argue that my evaluations are inaccurate/shouldn't be applied? I always is open to feed back and changes, as I created this post to better inform the public of buying the starter pack over the regular 20,000 CE/50 $, and is even better during a promotion.

Gimmi DAT PRISMATIC TOUPEE NAO

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:11

#13

Hungran

@Above

@Knight-Solitaire Nice evaluation, I would consider using a similar format to calculate the average value of an item when opening a prize box (EX surge), using the percentages and such. Just one question (not trying to be judgemental or question your authority), how did you come up with the consumer numbers in which 25% all sales are of the 750 CE package, etc? Thanks for your input.

Dang writing this all on my phone is hard

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:20

#14

Knight-Solaire

Praise the sun! \o/

@Hungran

Those were completely arbitrary numbers, just for the purpose of an example. I'm betting the distribution would be something similar (heavily weighted toward the cheaper packages, more sales in $5 because IIRC that's the lowest amount that can be added to a Steam wallet, and with very few $50 packs sold) but my numbers in particular were completely made up for the purpose of showing how the calculation would be done.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:54

#15

Hungran

@Above

@Knight-Solitaire Thanks for the clarification, but if you do, or anyone else for that matter, finds the statistics I would love to see them. I'm really curious to how many people paid 50.00$ for 20,000 CE (not when it was on sale for 20,000 CE for 30$). Thanks for your input :D

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:24

#16

Flowchart

The starter pack does come with boxes if you get it during a promo.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 16:27

#17

Hungran

@Above

@Flowchart Thanks for the clarification :D

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Benefits of buying CE, during a promotion! Calculations Included - 752 CE/$ VS 400 CE/$ *Final Total Includes Promotion Values*

Benefits of buying CE, during a promotion! Calculations Included - 752 CE/$ VS 400 CE/$ Final Total Includes Promotion Values