I'm pretty sure it's that random, though I think that the higher uvs (very high, ultra, max) have a lower chance, that's all.

it just luck dude you can get CTR VH on your first roll or on your 9th try. it just LUCK not matter if you roll 1 or 100 times. it just matter of luck.
if you want to have some kind of faith in your luck i heard from some people that if you roll your weapon when its low in stars (2 or 3 stars) you will get a good variant on your weapon in a few try, but as i tell you its just matter of luck. (thought i would say when i rolled my spine cone with 4 of 1 variant ticket i got CTR med on it on the last ticket but got a good UVs before it: undead med, fiend high, beast med, until i got CTR med).

So... i tell you no matter if you quit rolling halfway or if you keep rolling with tons of Cr. its just luck if you are lucky you will get the UV you want. now going to be obvious if you have tons of cr to keep rolling you finally going to get the UV you want. but you could get it on you first roll. (like my Fang of Vog Too. i just rolled it 1 once per day until one day i got CTR med on it) which was enough for me since i know if roll it agian im going to lose the CTR MED but i could wing CTR VH but i dont going to risk that good UV because the chances to get a VH uv i guess its 0.1%

Going for a CTR VH on my Electron Charge.

There are seven UVs that you can get on a bomb (CTR, and six monster families). As far as we know, they are equally likely.

In crafting, it seems that +4 UVs account for about 5% of all UVs. I haven't seen detailed data from Punch, but let's assume that the chances are the same as in crafting.

Let's also assume that the type of UV and the degree of UV are independent. Then you expect to use Punch 7 * 20 = 140 times, to get CTR+4. The expected cost of that UV is thus 140 * 20,000 = 2,800,000 crowns.

I rolled CTR VH on a combuster on the first time I rolled it.

I've wasted 20kcr in rolling my Skolver Cap and got a Fire Res. Low. I am decently satisfied with this result.

I had a friend who crafted a flourish and it had 3 uvs... they made a trouble ticket on the support forums thinking it was a glitch. they responded saying that there is a 3% chance that a uv that has been crafted will have 3 uvs.

Me neither i won't trust a gremlin i rather trust a devilite.
(Points to Sullivan)

I had a friend who crafted a flourish and it had 3 uvs... they made a trouble ticket on the support forums thinking it was a glitch. they responded saying that there is a 3% chance that a uv that has been crafted will have 3 uvs.

It is well-known that a crafting can produce up to three UVs; see for example the wiki page "Unique variant". But the chances of that happening are not well-studied, due to its being so rare. Thanks for reporting that the rate of getting three UVs is claimed to be 3%. We have pretty good data on the rate of getting one UV. I'd also like to know the rate of getting two UVs. With such data, we might be able to reverse-engineer the random process.

Edit: Just to clarify, about 10% of craftings produce a UV, and Three Rings says that 3% of those craftings produce three UVs. So about 0.3% of all craftings produce three UVs.

If you want a UV, you have three choices.

1. Pay punch an ungodly amount for a good one that probably isnt worth it
2. Pay punch once and take what you get
3. ragecraft (which is way cheaper assuming it's craftable unbound)

After a whole week of crafting Spiral demo (both suit and helm) in order to get Shock med (at least) to get Mercurial demo, crafting with my mist (I have a pass, bear with me) I got plenty of UV's... But none actually worthy of it and let me explain why

First you gotta craft and get the UV (which is a low % in the first place)

Second, you gotta get the right UV you want (there are so much! I obviously don't want stun/curse/ice/fire/poison/normal/piercing on my Mercurial, I want elec!!)

Third, you gotta get the right level (for me it's med or higher... weak = AH)

Punch is actually a reasonable choice is you are in a hurry... if you want to wait all year long for THAT specific MAX UV then craft... Otherwise, Punch is a really good alternative and can end up surprising you.

got CTR VH on my Shiv, it's at max with the flat med bonus ^ ^

Got poison max on my first roll on Snarbo coat, 20k cr that put my Snarbo from 9k ce to 20k+ ce

Although I'll say this. Give you a limit when you use Punch, don't waste all your cr on him at once, you will regret it... 500k cr on my skolver cap and got NOTHING... *sigh* (still bummed by that, I feel if I had waited and spent those 500k cr on a 1 week period, I would've get better rolls... But RNG is RNG)

Usually I go for 2 or 3 shot at punch, 40k-60k cr. I know myself so I'm telling my friend "I'll do 2" and roll a third one if the 2 were weak's one

Edit: Grammar cause I'm so bad and couldn't even understand myself... lol