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A brief market outlook on CE/Crowns

15 replies [Last post]
Sun, 02/17/2013 - 23:27
Alexanderra

Bored of studying for my exam. So here's some rambling.

Price of CE is trading about 7k to the CR so we shall dub that CE/CR, 70.0.

CE prices are set to rise due to an increase in game population and the never ending supply of crowns(Federal reserve and QE anybody?). This leads to more money chasing fewer goods(assuming that supply of CE remains constant), which results in inflation of the Spiral Knights economy.

Now there are many ways to influence the cost of CE as well as manage this inflation.

1)Increase supply by injecting more CE into the market
2)Decrease demand of CE (Imposing purchasing tax on the buyers)
3)Decrease the amount of supply of CR (Contractionary monetary policy)
4)Subsidy of CE for new players/buyers

But of course, unlike our meddlesome government who practice a Keynesian economic policy by government
intervention(*coughmanipulationcough*), OOO has opted to use a Laissez-faire type economy which I believe will drive inflation even further.

And since the spread of Bid/Ask of CE/CR has become so small that the risk taken on to perform arbitrage trading outweighs the potential profit, I suggest avid investors and traders to buy CE with a long time horizon to effectively hedge against this inflation.

Unless, there are any promotions that may affect the supply of CE, overall market outlook will remain unchanged and we have a BUY call.

Trade call:
CE/CR = 70.0

BUY/LONG

Target price:
CE/CR = 100.0

Stop Loss:
CE/CR = 57.0

Report by: Suntory investment group
For investment opportunities please drop me a PM. (Just joking)

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 23:39
#1
Iron-Volvametal's picture
Iron-Volvametal

TL;DR Energy Complaint.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 01:27
#2
Zephyrgon's picture
Zephyrgon
Of course

Doesn't take an economics major to figure this out. when I first started SK, about a month after the launch, the ce price was at a steady 4k cr. Now it's about double the price. It's because of the high demand of ce. I am going to point out some crown sinks built in the game, but really the best way to combat the increase in price is to lower the payouts at runs. There are so many crowns in circulation right now, that OOO implemented some crown sinks like featured auctions, and it's really lowering the base value of the crown. CE price was low because crowns had more value. Decrease the payout during runs and you'll see a decrease in CE price.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 01:44
#3
Minotower's picture
Minotower
You seem to forget that this

You seem to forget that this is a business, they are not likely to just start giving their product away for free.
Stop complaining and go grind KoA.

Edit: Its fine the way it is, just leave it.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 03:08
#4
Alexanderra
Sorry kids, if you think this

Sorry kids, if you think this is a complain read again.

It's a trade call and investment advice.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 04:31
#5
Softhead's picture
Softhead
Ummm, why are you talking about it?

Most people know about how this works.

it's seems fine waivering at 6.8 and 7k.

We'll talk only when you'ved experienced 9k.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 08:01
#6
Zaffy-Laffy's picture
Zaffy-Laffy

Trade call and Investment advice? Let me stockpile up 100 x 100 energy, wait for demand to get high by not selling any CE, and sell them at 9kcr per piece. Apparently this has been happening. I notice some investors stockpiling up to 2000 x 100 energy during promotion periods, such as the Winterfest event, and the Black kat Kataclysmic event at 6kcr per piece, then selling them now at 7kcr per piece. Monopolization?

Inflation only seems to occur when demand is rising and supply is diminishing. Demand rises when people want to spend CE, such as crafting Kat Cowls. Supply rises to the extent that it has overtaken demand, therefore a drop in prices. When the event ends, the supply starts to diminish and prices start to rise due to the apparent fact that demand will not decrease rapidly as CE is still essential in gameplay.

1)Increase supply by injecting more CE into the market

    This is the only viable option only when there are promotions, such as the 20% energy surplus available during a period of time during the Winterfest event. It is however noted that OOO does not interfere with the energy market directly. By promoting featured items, such as Moorcraft boxes, Winterfest boxes, OOO has successfully increased the supply of CE by increasing the number of buyers.

2)Decrease demand of CE (Imposing purchasing tax on the buyers)

    This is impractical, due to the importance of CE in gameplay. By imposing taxes, you are slightly limiting the gameplay as one would have to pay more for the CE. However, it is unknown how this will decrease the demand for CE, as some people are still willing to pay the price.

3)Decrease the amount of supply of CR (Contractionary monetary policy)

    By increasing the value of the virtual currency, energy prices may decrease, however at the extent that it is only a physical decrease in amount. Value of energy will still be treated as the same, and the price tag for 100 CE will adjust itself to suit the value of CR. By also decreasing the supply of CR, the whole economic system, that of trades, auction houses, vendors, will have to adjust itself. It is therefore, impractical.

4)Subsidy of CE for new players/buyers

    OOO has in no direct way, interfere with the free market system the energy market seems to adopt. The only law for the free market is the 2% tax on every 100 CE sold, for anti-exploit reasons. Subsidies for CE can interfere the energy market. By giving a "discount", there is a flaw in which one questions the source of the money. Impractical as the two above.

TL;DR The nature of the energy market does not provide opportunities for OOO to help the poorer and newer knights in the SK community, however, OOO has been thoughtful and provided means to supply more CE to the market. In the end, only #1 is the solution, which has been implemented.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 08:58
#7
Forumchat's picture
Forumchat
Freemium

The worst thing for being a F2P is that you are at lower hand while bargaining for CE, always. That's the price for the so-called free game. keep grinding, or switch to p2p

@zaffy, good comment, +1

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 08:19
#8
Laylla's picture
Laylla
free hugs!

I see that you're studying for economics exam (I can smell a monetarist here).

While I like your analysis of the situation I believe that you forgot about the FSC grinding and elevators passes system which can be blamed for inflation. Since the economy in SK is more or less like laissez-faire type and the rules of suppy-demand work as well its impossible for inflation to increase endlessly. Therefore the market balances itself naturally (however this may take some time and discourage some new/f2p players from playing) and that's why it shouldn't be ignored and forgotten.

The 4 ideas of yours may cause disinflation but on the other hand some players may find them unfair (imagine those masses protesting in front of the AH). In fact the best (and the most efficient) way is to create appropriate crown sinks, like the whole GH update (we aren't Ikea, not yet), featured auctions on the AH, ce promos, kat event (wtf everyone's doing Arcade?). As far as I can see OOO has implemented such solutions succesfully.

Taxes aren't the way, it's the game economy in general what should be balanced (both ce and cr sinks) and the game itself (fun fun fun!) to attract more players. (easy I am not going to become a politician).

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:51
#9
Zephyrgon's picture
Zephyrgon
YEAH

The only effective way to decrease the amount of crowns in circulation is to cut the payout of runs. The less crowns in circulation, the higher its value, an d the higher its value, the higher its buying power. As for CE, we need more in circulation to match the demand. Or you could just buy CE with real money and use it and never sell it. That works too.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:32
#10
Laylla's picture
Laylla
free hugs!

@Zephy: Wouldn't it just kill our dearest arcade which is already in agony? And wait, OOO has reduced the payout at least once (where's my 13k from FSC?!?!). It's not a big deal to wonder what would happen if ... or what should be done to... but first we must set our objectives (its it the cheap ce? (how cheap?) or the overall market balance or a steady rate of inflation? (what rate?))

In my opinion (and it's not only mine) the inflation rate should be reduced to the neutral amount (in which it doesn't affect our gameplay/decisions/good mood). Although the rate of exchange (cr/ce) may seem to be floating, OOO happens to take steps to reduce it (ce for 9k? Yes I remember that!).

Or you could just buy CE with real money and use it and never sell it. That works too.
Well... In result, the game would be 100% p2p (wow you see those masses fighting in front of the AH?) and a substantial part of our beloved community would vanish. (including me - (and you? ) - cryingface).

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:56
#11
Wodanct's picture
Wodanct

I'd like to suggest for the 100th time that boss missions be unreplayable so they stop being a factor in the economies inflation. Force people to the arcade to play the boss levels. Sure people could just "invite" spam at say d23. At least it would force them to do more work then just "lol start KoA mission be at fsc instantly".

Feel what the older players have felt and actually go to the arcade and work your way to the boss levels instead of the mission system where Three Rings plain out gave everyone a free warp to boss levels.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 11:18
#12
Flex-Md
wrong f2p model

^ is biggest problem here. Making the currency vital to progression through the game buyable only through real money. Just imagine what would happen if nobody bought CE, nobody would go past lvl 2 items... but since people buying it, it leaves f2p in a complete disadvantage, as said above, and CE owners monopolists who dictate price for this vital to gameplay currency. I do not agree with this model what-so-ever. Just look at the other f2p games with non-vital-to-progression-real-money-bought currency, you can get same items, weapons, etc just by earning in-game cash by spending a bit more time, but you get them at a stable price unlike here, where prices depend on paying players. Developers can still earn (alot of)money from micro transactions, boosters, exclusive items, but leave the core gameplay pay2dominate free. Btf, the parallels with current U.S. monetary policy is spot on, but unlike in real world where paper money can be printed almost infinitely while physical goods have a limit, infinite amount of in-game currency can be supported by infinite amount of "special" currency if it could be bought as directly with in-game money(at a fixed price) as also with real money. That is the most just f2p model, and many games use this model while generating huge profits.
I haven't played this game for a year now, just wanted to check on things here but it seem nothing changed... If you really feel that this model suits you then it's fine, but for me (and probably many else) well, you already know how I feel about this... does anyone here care? I don't think so, I just wanted to express everything I thought about the subject, since it surfaced(again).

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:10
#13
Zaffy-Laffy's picture
Zaffy-Laffy

The other free to play games out there always find ways to generate money at a stable level. Look at Runescape and they tell you to buy membership, look at Tera and you can buy membership for premium content, look at Dragon nest, look at any other games, same concept. Spiral Knights, though stands out by adopting a totally different market model, has still in fact been standing strong with good supporters. Noted that this paves way for huge investors, but I don't see much of a difference when compared to other games, where there has also been ways to provide such an incentive to free to play players at a price. Notice many games out there also have a second "premium" currency, cough Maplestory.

To everyone who thinks that by decreasing payout in missions and et cetera, please note that I have stated the very reason why it does not work... here, #3 suggestion.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:13
#14
Comnrade-Conrad's picture
Comnrade-Conrad
@Zaffy-Laffy Number 3 has

@Zaffy-Laffy Number 3 has been implemented in the form of guild hall updates. This was a massive crown sink and took a good chunk of the supply of CR out of the player base. (also note that the 10 dollar guardian armor pack promo was introduced at the same time, which magnified the cr price reduction even more)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 06:11
#15
Zaffy-Laffy's picture
Zaffy-Laffy

It says "decrease the supply of CR" not "Increase the value of CR".

Your example of crown sink does not directly decrease the supply of CR, which generates from clockwork runs, only. From the Guild Hall upgrade, the value of CR has generally increased because of the usage of it, as a crown sink. This increased the demand for CR, which leads to the increase in supply of CE (as it was one way of generating crowns). The promotion for the guardian armor pack also increased the supply of CE, therefore a drop in the price of CE.

I believed you have only interpreted #3 differently from I do, as the OP has not explained how it works. From my POV, it works by decreasing amount of CR gained from clockworks, therefore only increasing the value of CR and therefore decreasing the price of CE. Note that the value of CE is not affected at all as the price of CE varies inversely to the value of CR. This is a problem because a sudden change can call for some people with huge reserves of CR to win and people with huge reserves of CE to lose.

The reason why the Mission system increased the price of CE was because of the KoA mission. KoA provided loads and loads of farming opportunities. This increased the supply of CR into the economy. As there was a general increase in CR, the value of CR decreased, therefore people find that CE is worth a lot more CR. Note the value of CE didn't change, just that it costed more CR because CR decreased in value.

Simplified Version People want to use CR, so they sell more CE to get CR. This is therefore #1, not #3.

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