Do I really have to explain how chance works for you?

Say you have a bag with 3 red marbles and one blue marble, which one are you more likely to pick out of the bag? the red ones obviously. Does that mean if you stuck your hand in the bag 8 times you would pull out the blue marble each and every time? The odds of it happening are extremely slim, but that doesnt mean it couldn't happen. You've just had really bad luck.

le gambler's fallacy face

I have a hard time getting on board with the hate-the-new-heating-system train since it's been working exactly as expected for me, not to mention the forge prize boxes are great. So, no it's only failed me the one time I tried the 20% chance. And who can blame it for that?

But isn't there some sort of mathematical formula/process/thingamajiggy that something about luck/percentage? Like how if you flip a coin over and over, its always going to be 50% chance of heads or tail, regardless if you got 50 heads in a row?

I could be talking from my metal rear, but hey

But isn't there some sort of mathematical formula/process/thingamajiggy that something about luck/percentage? Like how if you flip a coin over and over, its always going to be 50% chance of heads or tail, regardless if you got 50 heads in a row?

You're talking about probablility, but the thing is that when sample size is smaller the result distribution tends to deviate much more from the predicted result. You're only going to get only CLOSE to 50/50 if you flip a coin a lot for than just fifty times, because it's pretty darn likely that you can flip only one side for all fifty trials.

How is the forge about luck anyway? It gives you a percentage at the top right? Just grind for radiant fire crystals.

We can verify this. Let the testing begin.

Step 1: You supply me with so many lockboxs and keys.
Step 2: I open a few daily, recording the results carefully.
Step 3: Math.
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Profit. Mostly me, but a little bit everyone ;)

I don't think lockbox items are affected. I think it's mostly just "yes or no" events that are affected. For instance, I recall one guy who'd studied the equipment drop system, and he stated that he could predict when his next equipment drop would be using this system.

failed 4 times in a row! -_-

now i have to farm even more 5* crap so i can upgrade the last 2 frickin levels!!! (and then i have to do it all over again for an other weapon)

the forge sucks! it takes for ever to fricking upgrade your stuff while i could do it in a day or 2 :s
now spending 4 days just getting it to lvl 10! (not to talk about all the heat that just flies out the window because you need to forge the fricking dung first)

Good point. It's possible the seed changes once every hour, or day, instead of every second.

This is funny. The people who are 'lucky' would never complain nor start a thread or random chat about their successfull craft :V

That's why it'll always looks like 'everyone' is failing.

My first forge failed!

40% ones are more successful for me than 70% ones for me?

I've wasted so much crystals because of that on my polaris it makes me legitimately angry. And drop rates of those are gonna be decreased i s2g i'm gonna be even more angry.

I personally find the forge system pointless.
I understand that it might be to mirror what you have to do to level your sprite onto gear, but the fact that you have to farm crystals is just obnoxious.
Right now my entire 4* wolver set + snarbo shield is heat-capped at level 5-6 because I don't have any crystals, but crystals drop so infrequently that I'm wasting heat trying to get enough to level just 1 thing.
Sorry if this just seems like a rant post (it basically is) and, itself, is pointless, but just raising a concern that me and many of my friends share.