Woo? If I want a 99% chance to get at least 1, I'd need to get close to 12000 pieces of candy.
Ugh. 1% is so low... If punkin drops about 12 pieces of candy per encounter... ugh. So bad.
If I want a 95% chance to get at least 1 I'll get Haunted Aura, I need to acquire close to 7500 pieces of Candy
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 08:15
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 08:35
#2
Wolfe-knight applauds
Oh the candy hunt, I am so glad I finished getting all the rare stuff last year. The only upside I see is that there is no elevator costs so you can farm to your hearts content. I wish you luck on your hunt and I hope you get your aura (hopefully without completely destroying you costume inventory with hallow items).
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 08:53
#3
@Thimol
ITT: Math.
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 09:03
#4
-----
you can have as many boxes as you like; there will be no assurance that you will get a haunted aura
this smacks of gambler's folly, quite honestly
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 09:37
#5
@Thimol
1 - (.99)^n = X, where X is the probability you will get at least 1 haunted aura and N is the number of boxes you will need to open to reach that probability of getting at least one.
ITT: Math.
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 10:03
#6
Then you're not 95% certain that you'll get a Haunted Aura from 7500 candies, you're 100% certain that you have a 95% chance of getting a Haunted Aura from 7500 candies. There's a subtle difference. (It has to do with the difference between the human psychology and the laws of the universe: your certainty does not affect your actual chances.)
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 10:10
#7
@hex
Right, right. I guess I should have worded that differently, since technically speaking you're right, there is a difference. I was just using laymen's terms.
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 18:33
#8
Or...
You could send me a PM in game because I unboxed one of the elusive buggers on my third box.
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 19:06
#9
I got one on my second box last year... I hoarded it for like 8 months and then sold it for OCH and some CE.
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 19:40
#10
Not trying to brag here, but
Not trying to brag here, but my first box yielded an aura.
what