Spiral Knights - Probability to get chapuae

Probability to get chapuae

9 replies [Last post]

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:40

Riverock

IDK is that I'm so unlucky, OOO so greedy, or that is programming error.

Details:
from site http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Rose_Regalia_Prize_Box_Promotion_January_2014

35% chance for one of the following:
Chapeau of the Garnet Rose
Chapeau of the Moonstone Rose
Chapeau of the Malachite Rose
65% chance for one of the following:
Tabard of the Garnet Rose
Tabard of the Moonstone Rose
Tabard of the Malachite Rose

I had 10 boxes and in 1st 5 I got tabards. Probability that I got tabards in 5th boxes in row is 65%*65%*65%*65%*65%=11%

6th was with chapeau. But next 4 were with tabards as well.

So, final real total probability for me was 10% of chapeau, not 35%

OOO, are you sure that you set up probability to 65-35, not something like 90-10 or 85-15?

BTW, is someone got chapeaus with probability >50% left message here with you result, how many box total, how many chapeaus were.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:47

Zaffy-Laffy

People who complain about the percentage chance always forget that one point : If there's a chance of you getting 6 tabards in a row, THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL HAPPEN! You merely fall into that range.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 08:51

Scirio

Wat. 10 boxes, 9 tabards.

Wat. 10 boxes, 9 tabards. Murphy's law at it's finest. Chap probability according to your test was 10%.

At any rate, saw someone open 4 boxes. Got 3 chapeaus, as if that wasn't lucky enough they were all different chapeaus, moon, garn, mala. Chap probability here was 75%.

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 09:08

Vesperaldus

For an accurate calculation

For an accurate calculation of probability, you would need to open more than 10.

Here, also, maybe this video might help you to understand a few things better about probability.

EDIT: Oh and if you had just opened those first 6, your percentage would be different! Surprise!

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 10:02

Ndognine-Forums

"BTW, is someone got chapeaus

"BTW, is someone got chapeaus with probability >50% left message here with you result, how many box total, how many chapeaus were."

I opened 5 boxes and got 3/5 Chaps :P

Thu, 01/16/2014 - 18:23

Dyskit

Probability to get"chapuae" is 0%

But if you have learnt anything from maths class, you should know that theoretical probability and experimental probability is often very different.
Yes, if you open more boxes you will get a more accurate reflection on the theoretical or proposed probability.
However, think of it like this, if I open 10 boxes and every single one of them had a chapeau does that mean that the probability of getting a chapeau is 100%? obviously not because I know that there are other people getting tabards too.

Simply, the probability of each consecutive box remains constant so if there's a 35% chance for a chapeau one box, then the next one would be 35% as well, it is not more likely that you will get a chapeau if you got 9 tabards before hand, the probability of you getting a chapeau in the next would still be the same 35%.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 00:41

Fehzor

The chances, of you finding 1 chap in 10 is as follows:

(10 choose 1) * (.65 ^ 9) * (.35 ^ 1)

This is equal to:

10 * .0207 * .35 = 7.2%.

Compared to the expected value of finding 3 or 4:

Finding exactly 3: 120 * 0.0021018302 = 25%

Finding exactly 4: 210 * 0.00113175472 = 23.7%

This really doesn't seem too incredible to me... think about it this way- the chances of getting a high UV are about 7.4%, which is in the neighborhood for sure. Now how many high UVs can you find wandering about Haven? Honestly though, I think that OOO should have done something more like 55/45% for the split, so as to not just blow the proportion of tabards out of the water.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 08:25

Doctorspacebar

Formulate a plan!

We all know the RNG is an asinine knave that has no acumen. But there is no apparent way to get it to desist at once. (Is it apparent I've been playing Fire Emblem: Awakening yet?)

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 08:41

Hexzyle

I'll save your bones

Nope.

Fri, 01/17/2014 - 09:16

Shamanalah

my 2 cents

The chances of getting one chap in one box is = to 35%

The chances of getting one chap in your 100th box is STILL 35%

The total result of those chances in order to get 2 chaps is 35% X 35% (0.35 X 0.35)

The total result and the direct result are 2 dfferent things... Also every RNG has a formula and I've been tracking those prize box formula ever since I opened a box and the RNG seems to be less RNG than what you would think... I managed to open 2 apo crown back 2 back and got 2 imposto kit 1 year ago... (the 2 imposto kit started my hunt)

The script to most rng are rng(0, 10), this gives you a random number between 0 and 10 and you can do rng(0, 10) X 10 to get a random number from 0 to 100... but most of these scripts have to be trigger so the spot your trigger it often influence your rng formula... You can say RNG gave me 2 apo crown and 2 imposto kit... but that's 1% X 1%... happened twice... so... hitting that 0.01% twice... RNG gave me that? hmmm....

Maybe I should get a lotto ticket....

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Probability to get chapuae