So I was just looking at the UV level probability distribution on the wiki and I noticed that both sets of data listed agree very well with the formula for the chance of a given level of UV being 2 / (3 ^ [UV's level]). Specifically:
Low: 2 / 3^1 = 2/3 = ~66.67%;
Medium: 2 / 3^2 = 2/9 = ~22.22%;
High: 2 / 3^3 = 2/27 = ~7.41%;
VH/Max: 2 / 3^4 = 2/81 = ~2.47%.
Any thoughts on this? "You did this wrong" counts as a thought too if you see a mistake!
(I apologize if this discovery has already been posted before, but SKforum's search is literally useless.)
You are right that the SK forum's search is useless. But the SK forums are part of the web, and you can use any web search engine to search them. For example, you could search Google for "UV rate site:forums.spiralknights.com". I hope that helps in the future.
The rate of UVs is under active study. Various groups of players collect data and construct "theories" for how UVs occur. Right now, Cheshireccat seems to be pretty into this topic. You might want to contact him.
I'd say that your theory is quite reasonable, but there are many other reasonable theories out there. We'd need a LOT of data, to pin down the rates with high precision, to be able to determine which of these theories is right. But it's great that you're trying.