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CE market tweaks to protect against speculators and shill bidding

8 respuestas [Último envío]
Jue, 05/10/2012 - 23:50
Imagen de Ztephanie
Ztephanie

The CE market is a great system, but unfortunately, some people play the system rather than playing the game, to the detriment of other players. There are some safeguards obviously built in to resist manipulation, but unfortunately, those safeguards aren't effective at stopping players with deep pockets from engaging in what's effectively price fixing.

I suggest some improved safeguards, that are triggered by certain behaviors and market conditions.

The trading fee should be automatically adjusted upwards to account for differences in offers to buy and offers to sell, so it's not ever profitable to buy and immediately resell. Currently, if the two prices are widely separated, there can be significant profit in resale with almost no effort and very little risk - free crowns are never a good idea for a balanced economy.

In order to combat "shill bidding", in which players post offers to buy to anchor or stair step the market price, track posted offers, completed offers, and withdrawn offers to buy CE over a 24 hour period. After a threshold is reached (50 lots of 100 or so?), apply a fee of up to 5% to withdraw offers based on their ratio of completed to withdrawn offers.

Also in order to combat shill bidding, limit the number of different offers that can be posted at one time to 3. That is, if you have an offer for 300 at 6950, 400 at 6960, and 500 at 7000, you can post more offers at one of those points, but have to withdraw one of your offers to post at a different price point.

Provide an indication of price trends so that players can better recognize short-term spikes. high and low price over 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 3 hours would probably suffice.

Provide an indication of "wait time" when hovering the mouse over a price in the CE market - how long the oldest offer at that price has been there and how recently an auction has sold at that price. This would help both buyers and sellers to make informed decisions.

Vie, 05/11/2012 - 09:48
#1
Imagen de Golgomath
Golgomath
Seriously????

No, just no.

All this does is punishes rich players (I'm not rich btw, 3.5k cr and 100 ce). The 2% selling fee is usually enough to balance out the buy/immediately sell strategy because the gap between buy and sell prices is almost always never more than a 10-50 cr profit margin. Also, there are no free crowns, everybody who buys CE buys it with their own crowns! There are no crowns suddenly entering the system. Hopefully you already knew this.

If you eliminate what you call "shill bidding" then people will no longer be able to put their buy price on the top of the buy list. Haven't you every heard of a bidding war?

Never ever ever ever ever limit how much CE a knight can buy at one time. You need 800 energy to craft 1 5* item. If you want to get that energy all at one time, go for it. OOO would also never limit the amount of CE one can buy. The more CE that is off of the market and in players pockets, the higher the odds that it will be used for something other than reselling it. If the CE is used for elevators/gear/crafting, the CE is removed from the SK system and that means more $$$ for OOO in order for the volume of CE to stay reasonably stable.

Price trends? You want price trends? I got your price trends right here: http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/46879 I just blew your mind.

There is no algorithm to estimate wait time on a CE bid. Your idea to show how long its been since CE was bought at that price is made redundant by the trend graph shown above.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
Dont mess with the CE market system. Ever.

Sáb, 05/12/2012 - 15:15
#2
Imagen de Ztephanie
Ztephanie
Reread the mechanics I

Reread the mechanics I suggested carefully, because I think you'll find your concerns already mostly addressed.
I don't want OOO to penalize players simply for high volume of CE market transactions - only for doing so in manipulative ways.

Shill bidding is the situation where a CE seller acts as a buyer to increase the bid price for their own profit. For example:

Current market price of offers to by is 7000
Post 50 offers to buy CE at 7200 as an "anchor", since these won't sell through that quickly.
Quickly begin posting 1-5 offers, each for 10-20 above the previous price, and hope people engage you in bidding wars.
Withdraw the lower offers and set new "anchors" at higher points, keeping the top five "high" offers on the market.
Repeat as long as desired.
Profit from selling to the people who have engaged in a bidding war with you.

This requires large CE and crown pools and high trade volume to be profitable, but for someone that regularly sells large volumes of CE, it's totally feasible, because the price jumps take a while to level out. The shill bidder doesn't want their offers to be the ones accepted, at least not very many of them - the purpose of their bids is to raise the market price, and only to raise the market price.

This suggestion counters that, because the number of proposals you withdraw versus the number you ultimately complete is a good indication of whether a high volume trader is trading in good faith (ie with the actual intent to buy or sell)

Limiting the number, rather than the size of active offers also helps. You'd still be able to list as many offers as you want, just the number of price points you can list at the same time would be limited, so that someone doesn't post 50 separate offers 10 crowns apart.

Sáb, 05/12/2012 - 18:26
#3
Imagen de Evilnut
Evilnut
+1

More available information never hurts.

And I've seen too many huge walls of orders cancelled all at once right before they can be processed.

CE price shouldn't be too low nor too high. Extreme prices at either end will hurt this game.

Mié, 05/16/2012 - 06:44
#4
Imagen de Ztephanie
Ztephanie
Lets just simplify this, a

Lets just simplify this, a lot. Shill bidding to either anchor prices or artificially inflate a bidding war is what's holding the market high right now despite ongoing adjustments by OOO to reduce farming.

Track canceled market offers over a 24 hour window. Every time you cancel an offer, the count increases, every time an offer is successfully completed, the count decreases by a 1 and a half until it goes back to 0 canceled units. Every 25 canceled units (where a unit is 100 CE, ) accumulates a 1% cancellation fee. Cap the fee at 10%

This relies on the fact that legitimate market traders want their trades to succeed, and will only pull a listing if they see it won't be successful, therefore they will have enough completed trades that their cancellation fees will stay 0 or close to it. By contrast, the people abusing the market are making bids that they try to cancel before they succeed - pumping dozens of units of CE onto the market at one time and counting on a bid war to ensue above that price so that they can profit from selling CE at higher prices.

Very few legitimate traders will even see the fee, unless they do something reckless, like listing for 500 units at a time and then cancelling the offer, and even then, the situation will correct itself relatively quickly by either posting offers that are in line with the market or by waiting for the fee to reset.

Mié, 05/16/2012 - 10:37
#5
Imagen de Golgomath
Golgomath
What about just not allowing

What about just not allowing players to have more than 1 bid price on the market? That simplifies this entire venture and is much easier to code than a program that analyzes players' trading activities.

Mié, 05/16/2012 - 18:06
#6
Imagen de Ztephanie
Ztephanie
example of what I'm

example of what I'm seeing

Limiting how many prices are posted is only part of it. You need to have a penalty built in for posting bids you don't intend to honor, so that when someone posts hundreds of bids like that, they are going to have to eat the seller fee one way or another.

What's happening is that sellers are placing offers to buy that are acting as anchors, and counting on the fact that people will bid above it to get their bids through quickly. Then they wait for (or create) a bid war, and repeat the process. This keeps the market high, even when OOO corrects the rewards of missions and boss gates to compensate.

At the extremes we're seeing, I predict that if OOO keeps trying to fix this through their standard techniques of nerfing rewards, then the net effect will be to make the game unplayable for anyone other than farmers and very deep pocketed p2p players. Since the micropayment model of the game actually relies on a healthy f2p player base to increase CE consumption and maintain high numbers of players online, this will ultimately lead to both f2p and p2p players leaving en masse.

Jue, 05/17/2012 - 00:36
#7
Dziurka
bump for the greater justice!

Look at the world markets - there the speculation takes its toll. Here we can prevent that - why not then?

Jue, 05/17/2012 - 07:15
#8
Imagen de Golgomath
Golgomath
I know exactly what you are

I know exactly what you are talking about. However, have you ever looked at the right column of that picture? I don't think that 271 offers are going away very soon.

I agree with the concept of mild CE market regulation, just not your implementation.

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