I just rolled 300k cr on uvs
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 11:26
Why Punch why?
Best thing I got was low....
ctr low - brandish
fiend low - brandish(2)
slime low - brandish(2)
ctr low - brandish(2)
fiend low - brandish(3)
fiend low - gran fasut
slime low - gran faust
gremlin low - gran faust
fiend low - gran faust
piercing low - swiftstrike
elemental low - swiftstrike
normal low - swiftstrike
gremlin low - brandish(3)
slime low - brandish(3)
fiend low - brandish(3)
What great luck I have!
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 11:36
#2
WERPDERP
My theory is is blew all my luck a few months ago when I got normal max on my bkc...
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 12:07
#3
what are the numbers?
Sorry that your luck wasn't great. But thanks very much for keeping record of your rolls.
What do the numbers such as "(2)" after the entries mean?
Were all of these single-UV rolls? No double or triple attempts?
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 12:56
#4
@bopp
means that he got 2 or 3 times the same UV
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 12:59
#5
Move over, there's bubble-wrap to be popped!
Oh, the wonders of Punch
Doesn't he make you want to do his name to his face out of frustration? Perhaps you should drink some fruit Punch to calm down
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 13:55
#7
Sweet-Hope
Sweet-Hope, that's what I thought at first. But if that's true, then he did 26 attempts, not 15, for a total cost of 520,000 crowns, not 300,000. That's why I asked.
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 13:56
#8
Double post.
Double post.
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 17:34
#9
...and~~~ this is why you buy UV'd items.
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 17:42
#10
That 300k could have bought you a couple decent ASI/CTR Med UV's. For shame.
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 19:17
#11
Dude I'm the Jynx God!
I've always predicted what happens to my friends (whether it be boxes, UVs, or others) I predicted my friend's Grey Owlite Shield get Elemental Max, and he did. I predicted floors, and I even give other people insane luck when I hit the prize boxes. +100 Luck to other people when I'm in one of my friend's parties
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 21:11
#12
meh
@Bopp
I think it might stand for a different weapon (like multiple copies of the same weapon, or three brandishes).
Like brandish is the first brandish s/he tried to roll UV's on, and brandish(2) is the second, and so on to brandish(3).
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 21:29
#13
What happened to you is actually somewhat surprising-- the odds were about a .15% chance of happening, less than the odds of getting a celestial shield from a prize box.
However, the odds of what happened to you happening at all are at least much larger. If 1000 people each spent 300,000 crowns on rolling single UVs, there would be about an 80% chance of 15 consecutive lows happening at least once. I don't know how many people have spent 300,000 crowns on rolls recently, but I would have to guess quite a few, especially with the removal of elevator fees and more recently the decrease in price of unique variants. The number 1000 just goes to illustrate how this could have actually had a decent chance of occurring at some point.
Source:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Unique_variant
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 21:27
#14
Prominis-Alt, Lightningfireninja, Fehzor
Prominis-Alt: You might be right, but I doubt that it matters whether you roll on a new Brandish or an already-rolled one. In any event, it doesn't thwart my point in post #7, that the original poster spent 300,000 on 15 rolls, not 520,000 on 26 rolls.
Lightningfireninja: Please clarify what the numbers mean, and whether you rolled 15 times or 26 times.
Fehzor: The Unique Variants wiki page offers UV data from crafting, but not from Punch. That's why I'm so interested in this thread's data.
Fr, 07/11/2014 - 21:33
#15
Oh, really? I wasn't aware that they were different, but I suppose they could quite easily be. We could probably collect a ton of data quickly to see.
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 00:46
#16
I remember reading a thread
I remember reading a thread with UV probabilities a while ago. However, since the author didn't give its source data, I'm not sure how accurate or inaccurate those ratios are: http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/98848
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 05:31
#17
that thread
That thread just took the data from the wiki and applied a little basic probability theory. It also assumed that Punch rates were the same as crafting rates. That assumption is not crazy --- in fact, it's probably true --- but I'd like to see data, to verify that it's true.
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 08:40
#18
meh
@Bopp
Well, there are 15 total attempts listed there, and if you assume that each number means the weapon is a different one, it would add up to 300k.
Like, what I meant to say before, though I'm unsure if I was clear or not, is that I don't believe the numbers represent number of times you got X uv, an example being that the s/he got fiend low on brandish (2) as well as brandish (3), and it was listed separately, presumably either for chronological order, or simply because brandish(2) is the second brandish the OP rolled UV's on, and brandish(3) is the third one, and therefore a different weapon with a different UV's.
Also, now that I think about it, it's likely chronological order, because later on in the post, s/he rolls another fiend low on brandish(3), and it wasn't listed at the same time, therefore leading me to believe that the numbers don't stand for how many times you got said UV.
Going with that, like I said before, there are 15 UV's there, and multiplying that by 20k would get to 300k, the amount that the OP said s/he spent.
Was something I said in my post earlier confusing or?
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 09:02
#19
oh, thanks and sorry
Prominis-Alt, thank you for clarifying. I now understand what you were trying to say, and it makes a lot of sense. Sorry for the confusion.
The original poster rolled on a Brandish, got CTR+1, and was satisfied (but not thrilled). Then he switched to another Brandish, and rolled three times before being satisfied with another CTR+1. Then he rolled on another Brandish four times, got nothing good, and gave up.
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 19:34
#20
looks like there is something
looks like there is something wrong with punch again
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 20:00
#21
post deleted
Post deleted. Going outside for a walk.
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 22:11
#22
In this thread, math happened.
\(._.)/
Sa, 07/12/2014 - 22:32
#23
DEM NAMBARZ
The numbers mean it was a different brandish. Brandish one, two, or 3.
:3
So, 07/13/2014 - 04:50
#24
oh good
Yeah, Prominis-Alt figured that out, but thank you for returning to verify, Lightningfireninja.
Now I can pass your data along to a friend who collects such data.
You should have stopped after getting ctr low and tried another day.
Honestly, passively rolling uvs tend to work out better than when you get a bad one, feel like punch was being "grimey", get greedy and roll another uv out of anger. Maybe Margrel blessed me or something. Idk.