Yes, and I notice people seeing patterns in randomness all the time. It couldn't possibly be me seeing a pattern where there really isn't one?
(Just poking a little fun at myself, there.)
Treasure boxes Gear/Area relationship
Mon, 06/06/2011 - 20:07
#52
Yes, and I notice people
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 11:12
#53
Nice epistemological and
Nice epistemological and psychological discussion, but I'm doing science here.
Get me some counterexamples.
Yes, I think a *lot* of us understand confirmation bias, the value of better sampling and other such obvious things. As I mentioned in my last post though, the fact that (almost?) all reported cases match the hypothesis would mean that *counterexamples* would then be the things that are memorable. However, since the peanut gallery doesn't appear to have counter-examples to insert their two cents worth, they appear to be content to attack the hypothesis in other ways.
More data:
I found a graviton bomb (4*) on an undead stratum in T2. Graviton bombs do shadow damage.
So, 100% of the three things I've found so far match the hypothesis.
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 11:53
#54
Well, what do Needle guns
Well, what do Needle guns have to do with Jellies? Is it because Jellies resist Piercing?
What does the Ash Tail Coat have to do with the Jelly Farm? Is it because their cousins the Lichens can deal piercing damage?
Why would the Avenger drop in a Graveyard? Is it because Zombies are weak against Elemental?
Going by this logic, at least half of all weapon drops will match the stage they happen to be on simply because half of the possible damage types are "notable" to each creature: either resistant to it, weak against it, or carrying a related status effect.
Why would the Blackened Crest drop in tier 2, and not tier 3's Firestorm Citadel, where the item's own description says it would be found?
It's just easier to remember where you got a weapon drop if its location was related to an attribute of the weapon. Otherwise you end up with "An item dropped the other day, but I don't remember where..."
Observe this effect at work, with a post from this very thread:
"Friend found a Magma Driver(not sure where), I found a Jelly Helm in the JK floors, Toxic Vaporizer on some random poison clockwork tunnel, and a Radiant Sun Shards Recipe I have not a clue where."
There are four drops listed in this post, and half of them are "related to" their drop locations. The other half? "Not sure where, not a clue where." That looks like random chance at work to me. The non-corresponding drops can go underreported since this very thread is asking about where they found the drops-- and it's easier to remember them when they DO correspond.
Conclude what you think is true. Just don't outright dismiss the possibility of willful pattern-seeking.
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 11:57
#55
prisma driver
got a prisma driver in the arena before jelly palace yesterday, if that helps with your info
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 12:43
#56
Hmmn...
I've gotten one dropped item ever and it was a rock salt bomb from Jelly Palace: Battle Royale ...
not possible to have a confirmation bias on a sample size of 1 and that's amazingly thematic.
Prisma driver is not very thematic to a fire arena or a slime strata, but I would not be surprised if drop rates were both higher and fully random in arena awards and treasure vaults (not that I've gotten items there... well, I picked up an item in a treasure vault but it was awarded to a party member.)
Also I wouldn't be surprised if there was a large pool of items that can drop anywhere and a smaller pool that drops only in specific locations to create higher than average 'suitable' drops but not perfect correlation with theme. E.g, how many rock salt bombs have been found outside of slime levels?
Well, what do Needle guns have to do with Jellies? Is it because Jellies resist Piercing?
What does the Ash Tail Coat have to do with the Jelly Farm? Is it because their cousins the Lichens can deal piercing damage?
Why would the Avenger drop in a Graveyard? Is it because Zombies are weak against Elemental?
Jellies are closely associated with piercing - look at the Jelly armor set and their color text, and also lichens are included in the slime of 'slime' strata, and Avenger is clearly an anti-undead weapon. Still, I would find it odd for Needle Gun (a weapon -weak- against slimes) to be a slime strata drop. Ash Tail Coat makes more sense in that respect, it's strong against slimes as Avenger is strong against undead.
Still it's -possible- that typed items drop in this way... arenas do always have gun-puppies and mecha-knights, after all. But then with a fire + sllime + mechs set, there isn't any 'type' that can't be considered connected (mechs are vulnerable to elemental, slimes to shadow, both are resistant to piercing... ) So anything associated with shadow, elemental, or piercing is thematic... How many levels are like that?
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 13:05
#57
"Jellies are closely
"Jellies are closely associated with piercing - look at the Jelly armor set and their color text, and also lichens are included in the slime of 'slime' strata, and Avenger is clearly an anti-undead weapon. Still, I would find it odd for Needle Gun (a weapon -weak- against slimes) to be a slime strata drop. Ash Tail Coat makes more sense in that respect, it's strong against slimes as Avenger is strong against undead."
That's the logic I'm having trouble accepting. "This weapon is strong against these enemies, therefore it must be related!" While simultaneously, "This weapon is weak against these enemies, therefore it must be related!" Pointing at both of these as evidence at the same time makes for very, very open-ended criteria. The only thing missing was weapons that are neutral to the stage theme's enemies... such as a Prisma Driver in a Jelly stage. Which may not be conclusive given that arenas may have fully-random drops like treasure vaults might.
It's not the conclusion I strongly disagree with (and I do think it is certainly plausible that there could be a pattern to item drops), it's the part where completely opposite situations are considered evidence towards the same conclusion, when those two completely opposite situations comprise about two-thirds of all possible situations. "Paper is the best choice for rock-paper-scissors because it only loses one-third of the time!"
If a Brandish dropped in an Undead stage, I half expect someone to declare it thematic because its Elemental evolutions are effective against Undead, whereas another person would ALSO declare it thematic because the Nightblade's Shadow damage matches Undead... and another person declares it thematic because the Cautery is effective against the jellies in the Undead-themed Scarlet Fortress (even if that wasnt the actual place where it dropped). Meanwhile, the Brandish itself is completely neutral to all of the above, what with having Normal damage and no bonus effect.
Thu, 06/09/2011 - 13:29
#58
However, since the peanut
However, since the peanut gallery doesn't appear to have counter-examples to insert their two cents worth, they appear to be content to attack the hypothesis in other ways.
I'm not attacking the hypothesis. I think it's entirely plausible. It's the methodology and the degree to which this anecdotal evidence actually supports the hypothesis that I question.
I talked with my friend about the hunting blade she got, and she thinks it was in the jelly palace. She says she also got an emberbreak helm in the same place I got my prismatech alchemer, at a spot in one of the Jigsaw Valley levels. Those could have been any of a few different strata, but certainly not fire related. And again my shadowtech alchemer and force buckler came from unknown arenas. We did find a wolver cap the other day in a wolver den. One hit out of six items just doesn't impress me.
@Gigafreak: Exactly.
Tue, 06/14/2011 - 06:32
#59
http://forums.spiralknights.c
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/11128
there is this research project for wiki.
Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:40
#60
Brute Jelly Helm also found
Brute Jelly Helm also found in Red Carpet Runaround, 4th locked door. It is the only piece of equipment that I've gotten from a box so far.
Tue, 06/14/2011 - 12:01
#61
Jelly Trinket
Someone I was with got one of the jelly trinkets somewhere after basil on a JK run. He joined in the flame lash arena, but neither of us noticed the drop until we took the elevator up before JK.
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 16:18
#62
MOAR
[screen shake] ARISE! [/screen shake]
Ionized Salt bomb in a slimeway
Jelly Armor in Jelly Palace
Wolver Coat in Jigsaw Valley
Dusker Coat in Jigsaw Valley
-------
This is a stupid anecdote, but I got the 4* skelly mask a long time ago from a t3 run. I can't say what gate / theme it was, but there were Kats.
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 14:49
#63
I once got a Wolver Coat
I once got a Wolver Coat right after fighting the Snarbolax.
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 15:06
#64
Got a Vile Slicer from a
Got a Vile Slicer from a treasure chest in a T3 Lichenous Lair - Toxic Union. The next day, I got Toxic Vaporizer(2*) from the same level.
Sat, 06/25/2011 - 15:20
#65
Just a little data.
My brother got a Spur on a Treasure Vault.
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 20:45
#66
In my continued effort to
In my continued effort to report every single item I get...
I found a circuit breaker shield (1*) in the depth 1 arena, Thunder Fist - Cadaverous Clash, on the new Emerald Falcon gate.
Still it's -possible- that typed items drop in this way... arenas do always have gun-puppies and mecha-knights, after all. But then with a fire + sllime + mechs set, there isn't any 'type' that can't be considered connected (mechs are vulnerable to elemental, slimes to shadow, both are resistant to piercing... ) So anything associated with shadow, elemental, or piercing is thematic... How many levels are like that?
That is a good point, what items would not be thematic for a given level?
The theory put forward was:
Drop priority from highest to lowest: Related effect > attribute (piercing/elemental/shadow) > random junk
So, yeah, it is quite possible that some situations, anything could show up from any of the three cases mentioned, but for a fire arena with some oilers and red rovers, I suspect that the fire would fit, while stun would not, and the selection algorithm looks at the bits in the arena description that chooses red rovers over static puppies, rather than the fact that constructs are being generated. Basically, there has to be some sort of systematic way that monsters are selected for all the different combinations of level icons (see gate), otherwise you couldn't write a computer program to generate the them. I suspect that, if equipment drops are actually related, that the program uses the same information.
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 21:05
#67
Shadowtech Alchemer (Shadow)
Shadowtech Alchemer (Shadow) from a Cadaverous Clash Arena (Undead): http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198043313920/screenshot/57892674...
Also, I was thinking the same thing, that maybe equipment that's related to the area has a higher chance of being found, and something that isn't related has a lower chance.
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 22:46
#68
The connection I'm trying to
The connection I'm trying to establish has to do with stratums, that's why I'm making this list: http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Stratum
Given a big enough sample, we will be able to say things like "Wolver caps only drop in beast/jelly stratums"
Doesn't matter if the drop "makes sense" or not.
Sun, 06/26/2011 - 23:59
#69
~
I've gotten two drops, Strike Needle in the crates after you beat the JK and a Hot Edge from a T1 crate
Mon, 06/27/2011 - 05:01
#70
Got myself a wolver coat at
Got myself a wolver coat at snarby's lair last night. Didn't think weapons/armour dropped out of boxes.
Mon, 06/27/2011 - 06:13
#71
The connection I'm trying to
The connection I'm trying to establish has to do with stratums, that's why I'm making this list: http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Stratum
Given a big enough sample, we will be able to say things like "Wolver caps only drop in beast/jelly stratums"
Doesn't matter if the drop "makes sense" or not.
Actually, I don't think it's the stratum as much as the stage.
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 11:33
#72
Hi, I'm Helstar.
Hi, I'm Helstar. I apologize for bringing this topic up after two days. But I just found a Jelly Mail in a Green Box on D17 Jelly Palace, after killing the King. I just want you all to know that. I think this topic is about finding stuff in Boxes so I found it relevant. But I don't really know. Sorry.
edit: oops it might have been a Red Box, sorry wasn't paying attention
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:32
#73
It's ok
Don't worry about bumping this thread, any info is always relevant :P
Thanks for the input~
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:37
#74
well
static edge in thunderfist arena, jelly helm in jelly-themed arena (forgot it's name)
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:38
#75
>It's not the conclusion I
>It's not the conclusion I strongly disagree with (and I do think it is certainly plausible that there could be a pattern to item drops), it's the part where completely opposite situations are considered evidence towards the same conclusion, when those two completely opposite situations comprise about two-thirds of all possible situations. "Paper is the best choice for rock-paper-scissors because it only loses one-third of the time!"
To be fair, the drop tables have been arbitrarily created by developers so it doesn't make both cases mutually exclusive.
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:14
#76
I got a 4* Wise Owlite Shield
I got a 4* Wise Owlite Shield from Charred Court.
Whoo.
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:27
#77
rock jelly mail in T3 shock /
rock jelly mail in T3 shock / construct lvl, wolver + gremin danger room.
rock jelly helm in T3 treasure vault, fire
Brandish in T3 undead
heavy plate shield in T3 construct / poison, nonelemental jelly danger room.
wrench wand in T3 biest / fire arena.
horned owlite shield in T3 poison / undead arena.
crystal bomb in t3 jigsaw
super slime slasher in T3 contruct + gremlin arena.
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:40
#78
Not stratum theme, but level theme?
I'm interested in finding out what actual stages you get these from. If they are affected by area, I think the drop tables are probably more specific to stage (ex: Jigsaw Valley, Royal Jelly Palace, Clockwork tunnels) and perhaps their specific theme (Jade tangle, Garden of Goo, Haunted Passage) than what the actual stratum is - because you can be in Lichenous Lair: Shocking Synthesis - that's a slime-shock level.
From the data above, it seems that Jelly gear is more likely to be in Royal Jelly Palace's drop table.
From where I've seen them drop, Wolver line seems to be somewhat tied to Jigsaw Valley.
Tue, 07/05/2011 - 03:20
#79
Got a Hot Edge from depth 24
Got a Hot Edge from depth 24 Firestorm Citadel. The boxes next to the elevator.
Tue, 07/05/2011 - 05:54
#80
Arena
T2 Arena: Pummel Gun
Tue, 07/05/2011 - 07:26
#81
T3 Graveyard: Salamander Mask
T3 Graveyard: Salamander Mask (I was already wearing one of the damn things!)
T2 Power Complex: Skelly Mask
T2 Treasure Vault: Crystal Bomb
Those are my only drops I have had so far.
Sat, 07/16/2011 - 16:31
#82
moar
Firecracker from depth 24 Firestorm citadel treasure boxes (great, got it on July 4th lol)
Autogun from Wasteworks: Infernal Passage, Depth 12 in the fiend-themed stratum before jelly king basil.
Wyvern scale shield (4*!) from depth 20 Jigsaw Valley:Emerald Axis
Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:09
#83
Hi, I'm Helstar.
Hi, I'm Helstar! Sorry for bumping this Topic, but I have found a Frostbreaker Helm (1*) in a Green Box on Depth 14, Lichenous Lair - Cold Fusion, Ruby Bishop Gate (fourth Stratum, Slime, on a Jelly King run) about two hours ago. But that Gate doesn't exist anymore. Oops.
How are you feeling today? I was wondering because I
EDIT: Hi, I'm Helstar! Sorry for bumping --- AGAIN! But I found a Wolver Cap in Depth 9, Power Complex - Wild Path, Dark King Gate, in a Green Box. I'm still pretty sure this is the Topic where we talk about this stuff, OK?
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 22:54
#84
A party member got a "Brute
A party member got a "Brute Jelly Shield" 3* from a "Slimey Showdown" arena on Ruby Knight gate. It was at depth 12, stratum 3, found in a green box amongst the rewards for completing the 3rd challenge room.
Here is a picture of his loot at the end of the run.
http://kylereiss.com/sk-item.jpg
For those of you wondering, when the item dropped it used the same icon as what is shown in that picture.
Has any one else noticed that dropped item star levels are directly related to the stratum you are on. For example 3* items can only be found on stratums 3-6. Respectively, 5* items would only drop on tier 3, stratum 5-6, if this was the case. I wonder if this is the same for love puppies and there trinkets...
P.S. I posted this on http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/11128 to as this topic is for finding a correlation between location and dropped item and that one is for recording all drops. Sorry, if I shouldn’t have done that, but it seemed relevant for both.
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 02:04
#85
Got a Brute Jelly Shield from
Got a Brute Jelly Shield from an arena before the JK levels, it is in the Ruby Knight Gate, forgot the name. The arena was a Slime arena and I got the drop from one of the treasure boxes in the treasure box/mineral place after the third room.
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 02:48
#86
u jelly?
Jelly Helm in a jelly stratum, after a danger room.
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 20:16
#87
Plate Shield from a Tier 2
Plate Shield from a Tier 2 arena (Stratum 4).
It was a Thunder Fist Arena: Robo Rampage (Shock, Constructs) on Depth 13, the floor right after Basil in Tier 2.
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 12:38
#88
nabbed a wolver cap from the
nabbed a wolver cap from the boxes after Roarmulus
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 17:15
#89
Wise Owlite Shiled
Picked up a Wise Owlite Shield from a D22 Treasure Box (Treasure Vault Level) the current FSC gate.
Edit: I meant the 4* one
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 17:13
#90
u guys r all so lucky. i
u guys r all so lucky. i never got aything, but my brother (IGN Shadownox) got a slime slasher in one of the jelly farms i think and one of his party members got an firebreaker armor in a fire themed place and another one of his party members got wolver coat after killing jk.
Speaking of Jelly farms, one of the levels has a gate with no key, so u cant open it. u go along a path and come upon the treasure eventuall, but u r stopped by a wall and cant get them. u can smash the bozes if u have a gun or something. but usually nothing comes to u. unless a coin drops close to u. like on did to me.
back to the origional topic.
What is the possibility of getting a piece of equiptment in a treasure box? cause i never got one.
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 18:54
#91
I've never had any gear drop
I've never had any gear drop from boxes. :(
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 11:51
#92
What the hell, OnmyojiOmn, I
What the hell, OnmyojiOmn, I got that same comic strip from a multiple regression analysis class syllabus. Weird coincidence, small world I guess.
Anyway, I have gotten a Scary Skelly Suit(the one that was 3* or whatever) in a Power Complex or Clockworks instead of a Graveyard at tier 2.
Fri, 08/05/2011 - 14:03
#93
Continuing to report *all*
Continuing to report *all* the things I have found....
found a rock salt bomb (3*) in the treasure vault on D21 of the current FSC gate (jade rook). It is a construction stratum.
Fri, 08/05/2011 - 15:39
#94
@Ranzo
Or maybe xkcd is just really popular :P
Fri, 08/05/2011 - 15:47
#95
I never got an item before...
I never got anything before, although my teammate did once.
(oh hey, I recognize you from FFA/guild matches.)
Fri, 08/05/2011 - 18:40
#96
Strike Needle
The jelly
Strike Needle
The jelly farms, depth 28
Selling it if anyone wants it, contact me in game, nick: Tantarian
Fri, 08/05/2011 - 19:09
#97
interesting things you have
interesting things you have in this thread as well as the other one I found in the search a few weeks ago
Im very interested in the darkfang shield dropped from boxes, or any other possible rare items that cant be crafted
I havent seen too many item drops... latest one is a calibur from the level before the Jelly King
Tue, 08/16/2011 - 04:57
#98
found a scale shield (1*) in
found a scale shield (1*) in the Iron Edge Arena: Wrench Warfare on D19 of the current snarby gate (coral titan). It is a gremlin stratum. I'm pretty sure I found it on the second part of the arena, but I'm not certain.
Tue, 08/16/2011 - 05:05
#99
Found a Rock Jelly Mail (4*)
Found a Rock Jelly Mail (4*) from a green box in first level of Jelly Palace. It's in the left room with the statue. I was solo'ing.
Sat, 01/12/2013 - 01:21
#100
my reports
So I hope this will help
(Events listed in chronological order)
Salamander Mask 4*
Royal Jelly Pallace
Depth 16 (lvl 2)
Gold gated treasure room before the final room
Stone Tortoise 4*
Royal Jelly Pallace
Depth 15(lvl 1)
Left wing treasure boxes
Brandish 2*
Royal Jelly Pallace
Depth 16(lvl 2)
Gold gated treasure room before the final room
Cold Iron Carver 4*
Firestorm Citadel
(Location Unknown)
Graviton Bomb 4*
Firestorm Citadel
(Location Unknown)
...Monsters drop materials that are related to them in some way. For example, Lumbers drop wood-related items and they are the only monster that drops those items.
It would make sense that boxes would work in a similar manner.
It might be possible for any item to drop anywhere, but it is not outside the realm of possibility for certain items to have increased probabilities to drop in strata that they are related to. This game puts a lot of emphasis on mixing and matching elemental themes, so it's not unreasonable to guess that the devs would make equipment drops theme-specific.
Also: this is Spiral Knights, not Psychology Knights.
Also, also: none of this data means anything after any kind of patch. I would not put it past the dastardly dudes and dudettes at OOO to stealthily change item drops as the game evolves to deal with material inflation etc. especially after new content is released.
Also, also, also: maybe start a sister thread in Wiki Editors to collect the data in a single post or some other understandable format?
It would be easier if a dev would swing by and confirm/deny that equipment drops are related to the strata theme, but that's not gonna happen I guess. :3
< /thinlyveiledplea>