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Freaking aye, you cannot roll x44 times and not get a single max, stop fixing my odds, and also can't I just get recompensated

10 replies [Last post]
Wed, 08/22/2012 - 23:07
Ranzoh's picture
Ranzoh

for buying an extra recipe? I asked support awhile ago, and they said it was too far back to reverse the transaction. I understand that, but I'm not even asking much, and it won't go toward energy purchases, just a crown sink. But more importantly, couldn't they just add 10k cr to my knight and remove the extra 4* recipe I mistakenly bought from Hall of Heroes? I mean, even if I made a mistake in an rpg of buying the wrong item(which I don't remember doing since it's not too convoluted), I would at least get some of the money back rather than just vendor it for 1 cr.

And if you're going to talk about that's how luck works. Well I'll give that I only spent 5kce to get some items this time, but over 10kce, and not get a single max on this one? I'm one of the people that roll more than the average person I guess, and those guys get frustrated from a couple of rolls, but x44 rolls is a lot for them, and more importantly, if I mentioned this to people I know, they'll tell me you're bound to get it sometime(just like how luck evens out when you craft a lot but never get a UV at say x50 crafts, but UVs will appear a lot at the "end" of your trials or a lot of them). Well by that probability logic, I should be seeing maxes a lot the further out I roll right? Man, I've had this problem of spending 15kce on each weapon and not getting the asi vh(not until after I rolled like 3 maxes on wolvers for one of them) before so...what's up? Did I get hated on for criticism and get my luck fixed...again? I mean even with rolling weapons I'd still have the equivalent UV to max which was VH showing up a couple of times, maybe thrice, between the 1-15kce spent on each weapon. When am I going to see a bunch of good UVs with VH/Maxes in a short amount of consecutive rolls as well?

My results on one item, not including another weapon I rolled a couple of times which had med and lows after getting a VH if that counts along with Maxes:

31/44 Low
9/44 Med
4/44 High

I know that Low may seem just about right, but some of us feel that that Max isn't going to be showing up anytime soon, and will probably be with a crappy to decent UV. And I'm willing to bet that those that got a lot of VH/Maxes in a couple of rolls, didn't take them x40-50 rolls of mostly lows, rather it just reset to the average.

Whew man, and I'm also upset that I spent money on a hunter prize box to get a 2uv ticket and 2 nemesis boxes just to get a volcanic spike mohawk and a 1uv ticket adding to the regal headband I got from a lockbox earlier.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 23:41
#1
Xcelestialneon's picture
Xcelestialneon
Ahaha

A week ago I crafted a wolver cap and I happened to pass by the uv gremlin and I noticed I had a 1 uv ticket.
Said oh we'll and used it on the cap, got pierce max :3

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 23:46
#2
Derpules's picture
Derpules
@Ranzoh

"Well by that probability logic, I should be seeing maxes a lot the further out I roll right?"

Nope. Future rolls are totally unaffected by past rolls. Bad luck in the past doesn't mean you'll get good luck in future.

No one is "fixing" your rolls, geez.

*

BTW Xcelestialneon, did you contact me re: a price check or something the other day? I tried to reply, but you were having connection problems. Drop me a mail if you still want to ask whatever.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 00:03
#3
Sypsy's picture
Sypsy

What you got seems normal for 44 rolls.

Sorry, you're nothing special.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 00:24
#4
Vaclavv's picture
Vaclavv
Like Derpules said, that

Like Derpules said, that isn't how probability works.

The chances of rolling a max are exactly the same with every roll. The preceding roll does not determine the current roll.

Statistically, the more you roll, the more likely your results will resemble the probabilities table (which obviously has maxes on it)

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 04:34
#5
President-Trump
accidently buying a recipe?

I accidently bought shadow driver 10k HoH, didnt know it was given by one of the missions
I accidently bough 2 volc plate shield recipes instead of 1 cuz my mouse was acting odd

Refund? I think it was my fault :)

just sayin

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 04:47
#6
Derpules's picture
Derpules
^Yup.

I've done the same. Suck it up.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 05:28
#7
Thunderbog's picture
Thunderbog
hush draggies. i creep in.

Ooh~

Why do I feel so sarcastic right here?
(grins)

Too bad, glad I passed away the hate from the crappy uv giveaways.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 06:16
#8
Nordlead's picture
Nordlead
Someone did a test on the

Someone did a test on the test server a while back and the odds of getting a Max/VH is very low. Since you didn't even roll 100 times, if the odds are 1% I wouldn't be shocked that you didn't get one. (they are both +4 just Max is for resistance, VH is for weapon bonuses). I also wouldn't be shocked if you rolled another 56 times if you still didn't get a max/VH. Now, if you claimed you rolled 1000 times and didn't get one, I'd start to think that you just have really bad luck.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:57
#9
Bigfootm's picture
Bigfootm
I was just probably lucky,

I was just probably lucky, but I was bored an decided to roll on my Proto Stuff, got every max on the first roll (1UV, mind you.), except for my shield, which took 7. My Proto sword and gun took 12 and 11, but we're not say, an ASI UV, but instead a VH in general.

EDIT: Figured I'd add this. I was seeing how Long it would take to get a Max Shock/Stun Skolver piece, on the Test Server, and I didn't keep track of my exact number, but I know I probably did atleast 250 rolls, which, is about 18,750,000 if I did the math right. The statistics on the thread that Gwen posted, are right, or atleast, about right.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 09:36
#10
Gwenyvier's picture
Gwenyvier
http://forums.spiralknights.c

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/43427
Please do not necro the old dead thread, the link is to show where my data came from.

UV level odds are approximately as follows.

Roughly
~67% - Low
~22% - Med
~7.5% - High
~3% - Very High/Max (name depends on the item getting the UV. Weapons get Very High, Armor/Helm/Shield get Max.)

Mind you those are rough odds and I have not re-checked the numbers in over 6 months so they might have changed. I will assume 4 more rolls to include the "another weapon I rolled a couple of times which had med and lows after getting a VH", making it 48.

33/48 Low is approx 68%
10/48 Med is approx 20.8%
4/48 High is approx 8.3%
1/48 VH is approx 2.08%

Your numbers seem to match up fairly consistently actually. 100/48*x= the percent. X is equal to the number of them rolled... for those interested.

~Gwen

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