I stay around to play the energy market so I can buy games on Steam with it. I actually like when the price of energy is low so it's easier to buy and trade games for, but sometimes, the market needs to go up so you can sell and rebuy instead.
Anyway, half of supply's resistance has been wiped out and demand has gone up another 100 points.
Houston we are ready for blast off! No resistance on supply's side up to 8100!
Also, the margin is 30-50 crowns right now which means the asking price right now is way too low.
^You seem quite smart, pretty cool working the energy market
Then you got blokes like me who just grind vana all the time
Yea, I spend my time playing other games. :-P
As predicted, the market is starting to go up although I thought it'd go up a couple hundred more points, but oh well.
Bids are around 7730. Asks are around 8170. Soft bidding resistance, moderate asking resistance. Margin is around 3.5%, so it's OK for now.
Okay, but when you started this thread the asking price was 10,000 (which was obviously a temporary spike). And a few hours later the asking price was 8,400 (post #5).
I agree with you that the price is creeping up. But the casual reader of this thread might not understand what you mean by "explosion", if this is what you mean.
And let me reiterate that sustained prices around 8,000 or even 8,500 have happened at some points in Spiral Knights history.
Just wondering, why does someone who only logs to SK to use the energy market for profits to buy other games cares to make a post on a forum for a game that you do not play or care about, what is the purpose of your postings on these forums?
I don't know. It's hard to explain. It has to do with knowing there are other people who are interested in how markets perform, and how we have a mutual interest at stake even though we aren't the most sociable people out there. Some people are just better at math than words.
Anyway, bids are moderately resistant right below 7800 right now, and asks are softly resistant right above 8100.
The bid-ask spread is 7815-8045. Bids are moderately resistant, and asks are moderately-softly resistant. The margin is below 1% again too, so we're probably looking at another price jump since supply is hypercompetitive.
...I am learning so much from this thread.
The market is currently being manipulated. The spread is 7815-7995 with practically no margin at all. Bidding resistance is moderate while asking resistance is hard.
We should understand that market strategies like this only make sense if there's a population boom such that people believe Spiral Knights is the coolest thing since sliced bread...
...but the fact is when you look at the Steam Spiral Knights graph of players, there is no boom. In fact, we've past the peak and are on the downswing of the general population wave: http://steamcharts.com/app/99900#7d
Another price boom should happen shortly.
Another price boom should happen shortly.
Just to be clear, when was the last price boom? Did it happen during this thread's life?
Also, are you ever going to change this thread's title to something that's correct and descriptive? How about "Evidence for energy market manipulation"?
Yesterday, there was a 700+ bedrock on the selling side that's been completely wiped out. This morning, there's not even a 200 energy benchmark, and after that benchmark, selling prices jump up to 8061.
The only reason energy prices might have gone down is because of today's "Catastrophe Event," but I don't have much faith in it since it's during the school year. This isn't like a summer event where kids have endless time to play SK. Now, they're going to school, school functions, and have homework to do.
how about you fix the name before making it a record thread
all parts of the OP can be changed
(proof is that thread about veterans that cupcake guy edited to make me wrong, then insulted me after it)
The thread name stands because the point is there's little incentive to buy energy with cash right now. It's become a record keeping thread to prove the point by talking about how the price of energy keeps floating up as there's more and more crowns to chase less and less energy.
The spread today is 7690-8030 with moderate bidding resistance and moderately-soft asking resistance.
Pros of this thread: Some insight into the energy market, earned through daily study.
Cons of this thread: Title and original post are highly inflammatory and incorrect. Refusal of polite requests to return to civil discourse. Ignoring requests to clarify the content, including history and predictions. Seemingly not interested in actual discussion to arrive at truth. Seemingly more interested in "owning" a popular thread.
Conclusion: Sophisticated troll.
pretty much what bopp said, but either Change the name or make a new one, I will say this every time you post without fixing it
Look. If you guys want to be trolls while projecting your trolling onto me by simply using big words to make yourself sound sophisticated when you're really not, whatever.
This thread is about the presentation of evidence to prove a point. It's not your right to derail conversation just because you want it to change.
Anyway, it looks like some individual is really desperate for crowns on the market. There is a massive 1000+ bedrock that's been placed which reduced the margin to 1.3% which is below the 2% fee. In other words, someone enjoys working for Three Rings more than having the dignity to make a decent profit.
Because buying prices have been recovering again since the dips they keep taking below the 7700 level, it doesn't seem certain that this bedrock will negatively impact them.
Would like to point out your Steam chart doesn't account for the Kongregate players or the ones who Log on directly through the SK site.
It's a bit like polling the people at a Comicon and then saying that everyone in the world loves DBZ.
Yea, but there's no reliable source for that player base. If one existed, I'd refer to it. In the mean time, we make do with the evidence we have.
im not using big words (well in my opinion)
but really, this is a record thread now, the name in the first place was wrong and now its irrelevant (oh no a "big" word)
the big words strike again
I'm not sure things are the same as they were before now. Maybe SK has developed some networth after all. The market isn't recovering even on a Saturday. Whoever posted that 1000+ bedrock though is getting slammed. The price of energy has undercut someone and hardly any sales were made at that level after that post. As it is, someone's already lost 100,000 crowns in networth or approximately 1300 energy.
The spread is 7590-7880 right now with soft buying resistance and moderate selling resistance.
@Nolidor
Your numbers and conclusions take one major assumption:
All the players buying and selling on the energy market are looking to gain a short term profit.
This assumption is rather flawed. I have invested in long term profits at multiple points, where a similar case of that "1000+ bedrock" was actually a significant profit for me. In fact when this occurred, some other people stacked additional bids at the same number to make a combined massive number. [Logically, I was first... so mine would sell first. But they may have been trying to cut losses from buying too high on a different long-term investment.] Additionally, there is a great deal of players on the energy market for different reasons. Converting energy to crowns for UV rolling/AH bidding. Converting crowns to energy for SD items/unbinding. Not everyone in the energy market is strictly there for profit.
The interesting aspect is that you claim that when the market is not favorable for players trying to make short-term investments as the game dying. Maybe instead there are too many short term investors that the profit zone is close to non-existent. Perhaps this thread is making more short-term investors and in turn causing more chaos for you in the market.
Update: It looks like that bedrock poster's going to lose a lot more. Buying prices have gone down to 7470.
My assumption is that people are looking for regular profit, not short or long-term. The point is there is to be a reliable margin in place to prevent hypercompetition. I do agree that the market has become increasingly chaotic lately though.
My concern about UV rolling and unbinding is it's a finite demand. Once the items are acquired, that's that. You still need more players pursuing them to make them worthwhile. Also, I'm not convinced they're in terribly high demand either since they require a massive amount of resources for a very small return. Because the amount required is so massive, you're better off spending those resources on other games entirely instead of just playing SK. For example, on Steam, there are quality games regularly on sale for $1-$10 not to mention there are tons of free games on websites to play as well.
There's really no reason to roll for UVs unless you're just trying to become the center of attention in LD. I'm not convinced SLs are a sufficiently entertaining experience to use UVs on either when compared to other games out there. They're nice to get equipment, and fun to play with if you have teamwork with friends, but if you don't, they just feel like a grinding job.
"My concern about UV rolling and unbinding is it's a finite demand. Once the items are acquired, that's that."
Again, bad assumptions.
It is finite per player [assuming the player doesnt want to make OP alts].
It is not finite if you make the assumption that new players come in and old players leave.
"My assumption is that people are looking for regular profit, not short or long-term."
Then please explain all the other posts in your thread, such as this one. That sure looks like the only thing you are taking into account is short term profit.
Yes, I think I mentioned before the matter of new players joining. The problem is that's not happening.
I'm not sure how you're interpreting that post. The point about a price explosion is the market was being held back against regular inflation.
The spread today has settled down after yesterday's craziness. Bids have a bedrock at 7701. Asks have a bedrock at 7981. Both sides have hard resistance, but asks are slightly more resistant than bids.
Thanks for your services in record-keeping...
can we just add a wiki page to keep some record of the market?
Tables and readjusting becomes a more public option in place of people referring to an inflammatory thread and thereby attempting to maintain it for their gain.
Recording data is best delegated to wikis and the occasional suggestion, such to allot spare space to those who desire discussion. Discussions do this awesome thing called enlighten people on concepts in regards to things that they have an interest in; not just have an individual drone about subject matter they feel is important. The latter is this great thing called monologuing or blogging whence someone's using the net.
Nothing against the OP for showing some initiative on a reasonable interest. I just didn't realize general discussion became the bazaar/someone's SK blog.... Not that we've not had very bloggy threads before, it's just that they've grown old.
Edit: if collaborative posting were here and some OP editing for a superior record of data I'd more willingly watch this thread in the bazaar where it has a better home, but of yet that hasn't begun.
the title has nothing to do with the thread now, I said it before and ill say it again
change the name or make a new one, sk is bankrupt is false in the first place due to it being a player based market and now you use it as a record keeping thread, making it even more incorrect
Skold, I'm baffled by how you believe this is inflammatory, or how you believe this is primarily for my gain.
Yes, I had plenty to gain from prices going up, but the main point here is to focus on the general market condition. I'm not someone with hundreds of thousands or millions of energy where media manipulation will protect or enhance my portfolio, and this isn't your typical bazaar thread since energy markets relate with the general condition of the game, not just internal buying and selling of items.
The point here is to report something among the general audience so they don't have to track down a wiki or blog.
In any case, today's market is bound between 7658 and 7935 with soft buying resistance and hard selling resistance.
so now you're just ignoring me,
anyway change the name or make an actual record keeping thread
and if people actually cared they would look in game instead of trusting some random guy on the forums who doesnt listen
The title is misleading and inaccurate. You're assuming the market still is a major component of the game while is not, and that the lack of CE means people is not using money on the game. May I remind you that OOO found a new way to make profits w/o the need of Energy?
It's fine if you want to keep a record of the market, but at least fix the title so it's related to the content of your posts.
he doesnt want to make a new thread or change the name because of some sort of "owning a popular thread" pretty sure skeptic said that, and now hes just ignoring people who aren't saying "good" things for the thread
Maybe we should all go back to the times of 2011 when it hit 11.5k lol and everyone bought it too the only complaint was not enough CR xD everyone was fine with the price cause we all knew it'd go down soon and everyone needed energy cause it costs energy to use clockworks and revives in 2011 lol when i see 10k i'm just like OHHHH opportunity xD so stop complaining until it hits 12k again because it has hit 13k before but i'm not going into that
nolidor is the only one who thinks its not normal if u actually read it
2011 is a long time ago, and many people who read this thread probably weren't even around back then. Steam doesn't even show game population that far back, but from the population it does show, the game's shrunk from 2200 to 800 players.
If anyone has a reason to believe population trends are different elsewhere besides Steam, please speak up.
Anyway, money is converted through energy purchases. You don't just purchase in-game stuff with money itself.
__________
The market seems to be recovering. Bids are moderately resistant at 7410. Asks have hard resistance at 7895. I might have been wrong all around. We'll see.
its not only 2011
last winterfest (I think I said this before somewhere) it was at 10 to 11k
edit: change the name
And I can confirm the 13.5k bids at one time...
The bazaar is just as far away as general discussion last I checked, like minds working on this, and people willing to do a deeper analysis of data would really help your thread obtain more respect.
My comment on monologuing seems to have flown over your head because it tied into the whole "place this elsewhere" theme.
Player population has declined softly ever since I first logged in. A major contributor to that is this game doesn't garner the interest it used to. The game has held relatively steady for the past two years on my end in regards to population seen overall, (checking havens and pugs) but I'm a night owl.
You also have to admit the Russians likely have it better on the China servers. And while it's not a massive contributor it still affects what you see. Because that SK is different, hosted on a different server and treated like a separate entity.
Honestly, I read your opening line for your thread and go, "oh look, another sk is dying thread" which makes for poor advertisement of your effort when all this is is market tracking. Which is a bazaar topic. Calling a game bankrupt is declaring it dead typically. Since server fees... Exist. And frankly that thread idea is as old as my knight.
if we stop commenting and he keeps posting alone will he be banned for spam?
change the name and move it to bazaar
No, because OOO doesn't even look at the forums anymore.
Besides, leave him alone.
leave him alone with his irrelevantly named thread, ignorance of how the market shows profit for OOO, and obliviousness about regular price spikes
yeah im just gonna keep saying, change the name and put in the right forum
He will not be listening to you any time soon.
Besides, does anyone remember when energy prices were at 1 million crowns?
OP's prediction: Market explosion.
Current trend: Prices returning to the 'stable' point before the price hike.
Conclusion: Topic's done, thanks for playing.
I also agree with the advice that the OP should change the blatantly false, click-bait title.
For anyone who reads this thread and is concerned. This is my rough history of SK energy prices.
It often sits around 7.5k for a few months rising and falling from 6k - 8k, then around times of updates, sales and events prices generally rise to 8k+ for about a week, this can occur naturally or people getting excited and hyper inflating the market to make the most of a supply depot sale or other event. There's never really been a SK crash that injured it in it's 3 years of life. Ya see the problem is this thread was made by someone who thinks they understood economics constantly relating SK to a real life market. But it's not. This is a video game economy, to combat any form of inflation of an in-game economy, they don't need to request government support, they don't need to change interest rates, they just update the game.
A long time ago, it was 2 energy to use an elevator and you got free mist energy every day for it. It wasn't that good of a strategy for OOO, so ya know what? They changed it to suit their needs. If you've ever noticed, any transaction is slightly taxed, crafting requires crowns and some other actions require crowns, this helps reduce the impact of the never ending money supply. If energy prices are too high with crowns? There's one place that always has a fixed price :). Don't have real money? You can always find orbs. The thing is, this is an MMORPG, they can beat this game into a pulp and squeeze the juices out of it until there isn't a drop left in it, even then there's always one new drop joining the game, the only thing that will stop this game is if the developers stop working on it and cut the lines.
PLEASE LET A MOD KILL THIS THREAD.
thanks topic, but if someone read any post other than nolidors they would deduce that
OP change the name
Yesterday, I saw bids rise to 7600 and asks sink to 7850.
Today, bids are at 7545 with soft resistance, and asks are at 7897 with hard resistance.
As for those asking the thread to be changed or shut down, you're just bullies right now. It's not your right to expect that just because you don't like what someone's saying, nor is it your right to simply accuse people of being uncivil. That's called being prejudiced and making false accusations.
Anyway, my conviction at the moment is we're looking at a medium-term downturn until the holiday season, and then a surge in prices after that. Supply for some odd reason seems to be above expectations, and demand isn't pressuring it enough. I don't really see why supply would go up, so it's probably just a random event from some individuals taking interest in the game. We're not in the middle of summer, so kids really don't have regular time to play the game. I'm guessing the market will sink during the holidays since that's when kids have time off. If university students play this too, then we might see things sink for the month and so after Christmas as well.
I don't really understand why prices would RISE during a Winterfest event. That seems completely backwards since vacations would be when people are willing to spend money on the game and increase the supply of energy. I actually started playing this game shortly after Thanksgiving last year, and remember prices being slightly beneath where they are today. To be fair, I didn't play over the holidays though because I was busy, so I couldn't tell you how prices were then. They might have gone up, but I just didn't know it.
Yeaaa. . . uh, what she said.