So that's the rumor. Is there any evidence(not anecdotes) out there to support this theory?
Personally I'd say I'd be prone to believe it due to personal experience, but I haven't done any data collection to confirm it.
Higher chance of rarities from clearing monsters first?
Sat, 03/07/2015 - 06:50
Sat, 03/07/2015 - 07:49
#2
↓
All my data is opening boxes after monsters are cleared. There is a connection between red boxes and depth for the quantity of rarities, which I try and outline in my thread as best as possible.
The only anecdotal evidence that I've noticed [not enough data to actually prove] is that rarities have a higher change after recently using that type of rarity [such as orb drop rates during the gunner update].
Sun, 03/08/2015 - 14:23
#3
@Skepticraven
Really? Some kind of built-in defense mechanism to keep the game economy more stable? So for example: when a lot of orbs are used, the game automatically increases orb drop rates to prevent everybody buying them from SD?
If that is true, we should use all use rads at the same time to buff the drop rates:D
Sun, 03/08/2015 - 17:36
#4
Iron Lockboxes
I don't know about the rarities theory. Sometimes I get that feeling with Sparks of Life, but I'm not confident enough even to call that anecdotal evidence.
There is strong anecdotal evidence that Iron Lockboxes drop more often, for knights who have recently opened an Iron Lockbox.
Sun, 03/08/2015 - 21:22
#5
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@Bopp
"...but I'm not confident enough even to call that anecdotal evidence."
For your interest, I modified this sheet for the second tortodrone timeframe, where I crafted quite a few of the 2 of the new guns during the event [I didnt use sparks of life during the battle]. Since the last announced change in droprates in the time I was recording data [May 1 2014], 2/9 {~22%] of the orbs from green boxes were obtained in that timeframe despite being 244/2969 [~8.2%] of boxes within that timeframe.
There simply weren't enough datapoints to separate out from the noise or possible error. Weak anecdotal evidence that could very easily fall into the explanation of "it was only chance".
@Jmmoormann
"So for example: when a lot of orbs are used, the game automatically increases orb drop rates to prevent everybody buying them from SD?"
No. As with the talks on lockboxes - chances seem to be tied to events on your knight only. If my theory were true [which I have not proven], spam-crafters would have a higher than normal orb drop rate than other players. Maybe someday I will test this out by saving up 20+ mask of seerus to craft at once.
Mon, 03/09/2015 - 06:24
#6
great
I was referring to my own experience with Sparks of Life, not to your experience with orbs. But thanks for sharing the latter. Those are definitely real data, although I agree that they don't yet draw us draw strong conclusions.
I've heard this kind of theory a few times, and thought it once or twice myself. People apply the same idea to black kat appearances during Kataclysmic Confrontation. You're right that hard data are needed, because this is exactly the kind of "pattern that isn't there" that human beings are fond of seeing.
I have not seen any evidence. Lancer Knightz do not test for this. Perhaps Skepticraven does, but I haven't seen it.