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Asking the BIG questions.

18 replies [Last post]
Tue, 09/18/2018 - 06:55
Paintool's picture
Paintool

In honor of being an active and beloved member of the Spiral Knights community since January 2012, as well as president of Paintool's exclusive and elusive fan club (I'm the only member, that's how exclusive it is!), I wanted to extend a social outreach to those of you who are still among the living who frequent these forums by being socially warm and friendly for once by asking THE BIG QUESTIONS.

So here goes.

You know how in the mission "Dreams & Nightmares" when Herex opens up the core? You know the part where the void clearly covers up the opening animation at the bottom of the map because you can't move because [forgot who that guy's name was... girl?] just keeps blabbing instead of hopping inside in an unskippable cutscene in the year of our lord 2018 part?

I'm sure some of you have already known it is possible to skip this cutscene altogether and fight the SUPER SECRET ALL CAPS FINAL BOSS...
the void elevator...
Yes, my fellow wage slaves, it is very possible to fight this version of the void that rests on the iron throne. However, because I am only slightly less godly than Nick himself (bless his soul), I am unable to fight and defeat the void elevator by myself. I can pull some damage numbers on it, but mister "time to be a hero again" knight doesn't want me to have any fun in this game. Has a team of 4 knights ever attempted to destroy the void elevator?

Also while I'm here I want to give a shout out to the knights in the core that said "don't worry he's just resting/sleeping" and were promptly murdered afterwards because some doofus blocked the elevator back to haven with boxes filled with useless moonstone Spiral HQ still told them to collect even though we've known it's been useless for about 4-5 years now? Rest in Peace, you glorious NPC's... (Sweet Dreams is a limited time only item, but can be yours now for a mere 49.95$ for a 15% chance, but only if you played between 19 August 2015 - 1 September 2015. Everyone else can go play Fortnite.)

Also Zeddy I miss you, I've become lonely and bitter without your bombing solo runs.

Tue, 09/18/2018 - 08:14
#1
Solanales's picture
Solanales

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/311195183482142720/40559598869938...
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/311195183482142720/40559605552748...

Solo autogun can kill it, because solo autogun can kill pretty much anything.

Wed, 09/19/2018 - 14:05
#2
Zeddy's picture
Zeddy

Sometimes I still do bombing solo runs, but it's in a game where bombs are at least as amazing as swords and guns are.

Thu, 09/20/2018 - 21:08
#3
Paintool's picture
Paintool
Thanks you guys. While I'm

Thanks you guys.

While I'm still here, let me ask another question.
Is Spiral Knights the perfect example of "Trickle Down Economics"?

Clearly you have the super elite who buy all the boxes from HQ, and they have to resell the garbage they don't want (if they feel like it at all) to players who can't afford to.

And if it is or if it isn't, is that a good or bad thing?

Wed, 09/26/2018 - 18:12
#4
Paintool's picture
Paintool
Ignoring the obvious, and the

Ignoring the obvious, and the fact that it's been brought up before (and don't start telling me this is a suggestion), but should OOO re-release old promo boxes and items into the game as permanent content?

I'm let's think about this in a logistic sense. People are gonna quit them game eventually, and their rare items and costumes will go extinct forever off the market. You could argue they should be promo box items, but then we'll have an endless loop like we've already been doing for 7 years. I'm pretty sure some of the devs are dead already at this point, and bringing life back to Fashion Knights in the form of new content would be nice.

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/28474977283458415/C1970016BD9...
I mean if they honestly felt like it, they could even charge out the rear end, like in the above picture (which equates to 140$).
And that's PER ITEM.

The bigger question is why haven't they done this already?

Thu, 09/27/2018 - 15:44
#5
Traevelliath's picture
Traevelliath

Re-release promos? Didn't they already do that? One of the first Promos was Rose Regalia. I don't think they ever re-released some of the original colors, but they have brought back Chapeaus and Tabards. Seemed to work alright, but admittedly the people who would be most pissed by it would be the wealthiest and oldest.

Trickle Down economics is not something I have thought about. I hesitate to say that SK is a good example of trickle down economics... mainly because of the biggest difference between MMO economic and IRL economics: MMO economies are constantly printing and destroying money at an insane rate. In any semi-stable MMO economy, players are encouraged to destroy a LOT of their wealth at a time. I don't have the stats, but I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of crowns get farmed by low level players, traded on the energy market, end up in the hands of an incredibly wealth player, and then spent on UV rolls. On the other hand, I suspect most energy is bought by the wealthy, traded among players a bit before being spent on the supply depot for Orbs or Wep/Trink Slots. And then we have promos which release cosmetics that bind on equip/use. Theoretically you can sit on them for a while to dramatically increase their value, but like 95% of that value gets destroyed the instant they're used. Heck, weapons in general lose a huge chunk of their value as soon as they are bound and upgraded. IRL, the reason why trickle down economics don't work is because wealth sometimes just gets accumulated at the top, and stays there. However because money in SK is constantly getting generated and destroyed, it has to be constantly flowing. That constant flow of money is what keeps economies running strong.

So in short, Energy is trickling down, crowns are trickling up, money is generated quickly, money is destroyed quickly, and wealth is constantly flowing.

EDIT**
I wrote this late at night. Needed a few edits.

Fri, 10/26/2018 - 07:02
#6
Paintool's picture
Paintool
Paintool here BACK AT IT

Paintool here BACK AT IT AGAIN IN SPIRAL KNIGHTS
-backflips onto a firegrill-

Do the devs or mods play the their own game they were hired to manage?

I mean let's think about it. When was the last time anyone has seen or heard from any of those guys? I'm not talking about showing up in haven either, I'm talking about doing the dirty work down in the clockworks. To me this seems like crucial and empirical data. We don't have a test server anymore, but why would you need to test anything as long as you are able to copy-paste the source code for more PROMO BOXES!
(don't forget to buy a cocoa snipe for your head, only 19,900 [49.99$] for a limited time only!)

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure they are very busy coding and working on the other games Grey Havens has (they do have other games, right?)
It's a full time gig, and somebody in upper management is telling them to keep that cash flow coming.
I JUST THINK IT WOULD BE A GREAT IDEA IF THE DEVS WERE FORCED TO BUY THEIR OWN BOXES, HUH GUYS?
That way the money will already always be in the game. It'll be like they're paying themselves!

But let's step it back a bit. Why should or shouldn't the devs be playing the game with us? I know you're all human beans back there!
I know I'm hypo critical about the history of this game, and Nick (rest in peace) would be too!
Can we talk about this?

(I wonder if Spiral HQ has a "watch out for Paintool" sticky note on their desk somewhere)

Fri, 10/26/2018 - 08:28
#7
Fehzors-Forum-Alt's picture
Fehzors-Forum-Alt

No Paint Tool the developers have never done anything wrong prize boxes are content you're wrong about everything make it stoppppp

Sun, 10/28/2018 - 17:33
#8
Paintool's picture
Paintool
https://steamcharts.com/app/9

https://steamcharts.com/app/99900#All

Are we allowed to talk about this downward trend?

Sun, 10/28/2018 - 17:56
#9
Bopp's picture
Bopp
hundreds of times

That downward trend has been discussed hundreds of times on these forums, nearly continually since 2011. For example, there is already an active thread, on the front page of General Discussion, that is discussing it. To my knowledge, such discussions have never been suppressed.

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 10:25
#10
Strayed-Faris's picture
Strayed-Faris
woof

lol, yeah, it's not really a secret

according to this post, the radiant drought started at October 16, 2013. following the charts, that's exactly when SK started leaking players

interestingly, there is an uptick in player numbers in December 2016, but i can't remember anything interesting happening then. except maybe that one youtuber who started playing SK

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 12:57
#11
Traevelliath's picture
Traevelliath

It looks like the downward trend existed from the very start. Not sure if the radiant drought in particular caused it. The drought is probably a factor, but just looking at the chart? Can't really say the start of the drought is where everything started going down.

First year-ish of SK's life on steam
June 2012 - 2224 players
May 2013 - 1608 players
Player loss: 616 players over 11 months = 56 players lost per month
616/2224 = ~27.7% of the player base left during the first 11 months

Before and after a big spike of players
Jan 2013 - 2072 players
Jan 2014 - 1494 players
Player loss: 578 over 12 months = ~48.2 players lost per month
578/2072 = ~27.9% of players left during this period

This spike contains the Dash/Bash update, the Sprite Update, the removal of mist energy, the introduction of the forge, the introduction of Apocrea, and the introduction of Kataclysm.

The year after the radiant drought starts
Nov 2013 - 1955
Nov 2014 - 1499
Player loss: 456 over 12 months = 38 players lost per month
456/1955 = ~23.3% of the player base left during the year after the radiant shortage

Player loss over 2015
Jan 2015 - 1148 players
Jan 2016 - 813 players
Player loss: 335 players over 12 months = ~27.9 players lost per month
335/1148 = ~29.2% of the player base left during 2015

Player loss over 2017
Jan 2017 - 745 players
Jan 2018 - 566 players
Player loss: 179 players over 12 months = ~14.9 players lost per month
179/745 = ~24.0% of the player base left during 2017

As a bit of a disclaimer, my statics teacher once said "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics." If you know what you're doing, you can twist data to get any conclusion you want. That said, I have a hard time seeing the radiant drought as the cause of the decline, for the downward trend seems to be a constant. Also, this post assumes that the only data available is the provided steam chart. Anecdotal evidence may say otherwise.

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 14:21
#12
Strayed-Faris's picture
Strayed-Faris
woof

> As a bit of a disclaimer, my statics teacher once said "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics." If you know what you're doing, you can twist data to get any conclusion you want.

it's okay, thanks for your post anyways. it is informative. looking at it this way it does seem as though it doesn't really have much to do with it. I guess I was just seeing what bothered me personally the most about the game.

> Also, this post assumes that the only data available is the provided steam chart.

yeah, to get the full picture we need the data from the standalo--

> Anecdotal evidence may say otherwise.

no

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 15:31
#13
Traevelliath's picture
Traevelliath

I only bring up anecdotal evidence because that's probably the only other data we, as a playerbase, have access to. I highly doubt a large and extensive player-run survey has gone through the community... at least I haven't seen one.

Even if GH dumped every bit of data they have on their players (bad idea from a privacy standpoint), it'd be really hard to find specific numbers that represent player frustration with the forge. I'm not even sure where to begin. Best I can think of is looking at the number of inactive players with unheated 5* equipment, but then (assuming you can factor out unheated armor/shields) you'd need to find some way to distinguish someone simply losing interest in the game, compared to getting frustrated by radiants. Occasionally a poll will show up in game, but that has it's own series of issues (for example, the players most likely to take the survey are those who are still happily playing on a regular basis).

Yeah anecdotal evidence is far from ideal. However it might be enough to establish very vague trend lines. Might...

*shrug*

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 21:20
#14
Strayed-Faris's picture
Strayed-Faris
woof

> Even if GH dumped every bit of data they have on their players (bad idea from a privacy standpoint), it'd be really hard to find
specific numbers that represent player frustration with the forge.

there is no need exaggerate what I'm saying, bro. I'm not asking GH to dox the community, I was thinking of something simpler, like steams' achievements stats, and so.

yes, it might not be the forge itself, and it could be a variety of reasons, such the lack of active development and so on. but i think finding that out is the point of this discussion, no?

> Yeah anecdotal evidence is far from ideal. However it might be enough to establish very vague trend lines. Might...

my objection to anecdotal evidence is mainly due to it being extremely unreliable, far more than steam statistics. a player might remember things wrong, or they might have not been around long enough to be able to give a valid anecdote, or they might be biased. in a way, using is anecdotal evidence is far worse than simply looking at steam data and coming up with conjecture/theories. I find it curious you would reject steam data, but advocate for anecdotal evidence. you literally could say that they are the two faces of the same coin.

I mean, if I were to use myself as an example-- I have played SK on and off since 2013, so if you were to ask me about it, I wouldn't be able to give you anything useful other than "the game is baddddd" because that's all I remember.

but anyways, I understand that getting accurate data about the issue is hard. I just think it's more interesting than the alternatives

> *shrug*

freaking rude >:U

that's UNCALLED for, man. UNCALLED FOR

Mon, 10/29/2018 - 22:13
#15
Traevelliath's picture
Traevelliath

Oh no, I'm not rejecting the steam chart data. I'm just saying we don't have all the data. As unreliable as it is, unreliable anecdotes are still part of the data, and one of the more accessible sources of data to us players.

Re-reading my post, I realize that I did make them seem equivalent. That wasn't my intention to do so, and I apologize.

Tue, 10/30/2018 - 08:06
#16
Bopp's picture
Bopp
I didn't read it as rude

I didn't read post #13 as aggressive or rude. I read it as Traevelliath thinking out loud about the limitations of his/her knowledge.

Tue, 10/30/2018 - 08:54
#17
Strayed-Faris's picture
Strayed-Faris
woof

the last line was meant in jest. bad timing as usual i guess, heh

Tue, 10/30/2018 - 10:03
#18
Bopp's picture
Bopp
oh, sorry

Sorry. While explaining to you that you misunderstood, it turns out that I misunderstood. :)

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