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@GH since you said you are working on improving communication, I think it's time the community knows your stance/plans on this..

24 replies [Last post]
Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:26
Reydann's picture
Reydann

Hello there, it's Rey again, hoping to spark some positive discussion and who knows ...... maybe even changes?!

Since just one or two posts below this one, there is another post called "Communication Goes a Long Way," in which GM Clotho admitted that the team needs to get better at communicating, I think it's time we have a difficult conversation.

I think it's fair to say that Grey Havens are trying to improve the game with meaningful updates, in order to hopefully revive it, at least to some extent. I also think it's fair to say that veterans, newbies, and future players alike would like to know Grey Havens' stance and plans regarding the pay-to-win disk guns.

Here is some math showing just how pay-to-win this is. If anything is wrong, feel free to correct me in the replies and I'll adjust it.

The official promo lists the four rarest items together in a <1% bucket, so the most optimistic assumption is to treat that bucket as exactly 1% and split it evenly, giving Orbitgun a 0.25% per-box chance. Using 1−(1−𝑝)𝑛≥0.99 with 𝑝=0.0025 gives 𝑛≈1840 boxes for a 99%+ success rate. With prices of $4.95 each, $19.95 for 5, and $49.95 for 14, the cheapest real purchase mix for 1,840 boxes is about $6,568.35, and the true cost would be higher if the real Orbitgun rate is below 0.25%.

TL;DR: optimistically, it costs about $6,568.35 to reach a 99%+ chance of pulling an Orbitgun.

And because I know there will be some *people* in the replies arguing, "oH bUt YoU cAn BuY iT fRoM oThEr PlAyErS iN gAmE fOr CrOwNs So It'S nOt PaY-tO-wIn" — yes, it's a good thing that it's at least tradeable, but it's still pay-to-win, according to all definitions. And yes, I know the mixmaster is VERY RARELY added to featured auctions but the price will never end up not being ridiculous because its tied to the price of the orbitgun. In my opinion, by being mad about a suggestion of making the guns be generated through in-game means you are gatekeeping because you already bought it, so please, just don't.

I'm going to be blunt: this does not look good at all for the image or the future of the game, and it's the biggest reason why I would not recommend this game to my friends. Not because its impossible to get the gun, because if you keep playing you will for sure get it eventually, but because this does not make me trust the company not to make more pay-to-win stuff in the future.

If you want to have expensive loot boxes and gambling for cosmetics, fine, so be it; a Western audience might be able to live with that. (might be another discussion in of itself) But please keep this away from ANY type of gear.
I believe this is the moment to decide what direction you want to take with the game's monetization. Will you keep the pay-to-win elements and possibly add more of them in the future? Or will you fix things while they are still fixable and make these guns obtainable through in-game means? (my suggestion would be putting them behind prestige points since they serve no purpose anyway at the moment)

This game is at a crossroads, and if good updates keep coming it will get exposed to a bigger audience. That makes this the best possible time to decide what you want to do.

The ball is in your court, Grey Havens, but also in ours - the community, to a smaller extent. So let's have a -hopefully- productive discussion in the replies.

Thank you for your time
~ Rey

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:42
#1
Draycos's picture
Draycos

Which prize box is this? Are you referring to Equinox or am I missing something here? The wiki lists Celestial Orbitgun as a "<1%" chance in a pool of four items. Where are you getting the second 1%?

50$ / 14 boxes at ~$3.57 per with a 0.25% chance and zero pity system is still horrendous though (~$142.84), especially for something that doesn't have any analogous moveset available to the average player. The other items having unorthodox and not necessarily "good" but still unique stats is unsightly as well.

I've never liked that diskguns / orbitguns only existed as unique movesets held hostage as lootbox items, nor that they're extremely powerful relative to anything else the player can make. This is the same game that features Somnambulist Totems, Black Kat, and VH/Max UVs, though, so the only real difference is that there's a concrete real-money pricetag and rate displayed for it... not that I like that any of those are completely unrealistic for anybody to get within hundreds of hours of playtime.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:48
#2
Reydann's picture
Reydann
@Draycos

Sorry about the math, my formatting was a bit messed up but I edited the post now.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:48
#3
Bopp's picture
Bopp
response

Your main point is that the mixmaster/orbitgun guns should be more accessible. I agree.

You also say that lootboxes should be for just cosmetics. I tend to agree, although I'd rather see a move away from anything resembling gambling at all.

Your threshold of 99% chances seems a bit pessimistic to me, as a way of understanding how many boxes are required. So let me give another number. If the chances are 1/400, then we expect 400 tries to reach the first success. (Here, "expect" basically means "on average".) Of course, 400 boxes is still a crazy expense to get a gun in a video game.

We might as well acknowledge that these guns are far from mandatory. They're a luxury item for players who want to experience another play style. I'm just sad that I can't experience that play style.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 12:56
#4
Reydann's picture
Reydann
@Bopp

Sure, but 400 tries for a 63,2% chance of getting the gun is pretty crazy.
"Another play style" you say, but let me call it something else: The most powerful playstyle for this type of weapon, call it kiting or strafing or whatever. (not to mention being able to shoot through blocks and cheese certain enemies because they dont register the projectiles). It's more than sad, its just unreasonable and the strategy behind this is obvious.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 13:00
#5
Draycos's picture
Draycos

Indeed; we can brush off things like P2W stats or revives as unnecessary, luxurious, or outside the spirit of the raw gameplay, but you can't brush off a unique bullet pattern that blows every other normal-shot gun out of the water in terms of both power and ease of use. Enemies don't even try to dodge or block it.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 13:18
#6
Nut-Meg's picture
Nut-Meg
I'm in favor

It's a very reasonable ask since we even have the models for the F2P diskguns already in the games assets so other diskguns must have been a plan at some point.
Realistically, the game is old enough that gatekeeping a type of playstyle behind a 10+ million crown paywall at its most accessible. Also, beyond the surface-level argument that it is something only for the end-game rich players, it should be apparent that there's a clear restriction on how many diskguns will exist, unlike pretty much every other weapon/non-reskin equip. I'm glazing over Somnambulist's because a trinket speed boost is evidently different from a unique gun line that is otherwise entirely inaccessible.

If it's not in the cards, I would like to know now whilst expectations and ambitions are high so our hopes don't get too high.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 13:42
#7
Nerf-Acheron's picture
Nerf-Acheron
Agree on the acquisition part

I agree fully that locking items behind paywalls or lootboxes is a bad thing for the game.

However, I don't think you need diskguns to enjoy the game or that you hurt the experience of others by using one. There are more imbalanced weapons and armors in the game that are in the hall of heroes (looking at Blitz and Chaos). So I am kind of neutral regarding that part. They are strong, yes, but not entirely Diskgun = Win everything.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 13:52
#8
Metayya

Calling the disk guns a "different playstyle" is a hilarious understatement. They're not just different, they're not even just the strongest option, they're gamebreaking. It was already mentioned enemies don't react to their projectiles the same way as other projectile weapons. And their damage output is so obscene they make the game less fun for everyone else, they trivialize gameplay by deleting health bars at long range before anyone else can meaningfully contribute.

Anyway, yeah, 100% in favor of making gameplay options available to players that don't have hundreds to thousands of dollars to burn on entertainment. I can't actually bring myself to make any real money purchases as-is, I just feel guilty at the thought because of how aggressive and predatory this game's monetization methods are. I don't support lootboxes, I don't support gambling, I don't support p2w, I don't support FOMO. I can barely bring myself to recommend SK to my friends because of how prevalent these things are, it's embarrassing

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 18:23
#9
Draycos's picture
Draycos

@Nut-Meg
Totem giving MSI isn't the same thing as a gun that can fold spacetime, do your taxes, and commit tax fraud, but it wasn't for direct comparison of perceived value, only that this design pattern's kind of standard for late-OOO / GH-era Spiral Knights... and tangentially, yeah I do think MSI is a busted stat both offensively and defensively which is why it was so rare in early SK, and making the only way to get +5/+6 via this trinket was a very targeted move, considering it's the final frontier for powercreep as we have means of hitting DMG/CTR/ASI +6 already. Mercurial Demo was a pretty sweet set and had it on hand when I felt like bombing before it got all but eclipsed.

@Nerf-Acheron
Blitz is an interesting case because it's not just the Gunner Update removing its movespeed penalty while charging and boosting its damage for some reason that made it so strong, but Dash, Sprites, Arsenal Boxes, and Elite scaling's bloat all contributing as external factors too. In the release game (now Advanced scaling), it was far less safe, more than powerful enough to overkill targets even with baseline damage, and a bigger deal to bring since equip swapping was almost exclusively limited to subtowns and terminals... The damage and movespeed changes could be reverted and it'd still be a monstrously powerful and popular weapon. If they do slap it on the wrist that way (and I hope they do), it'd be cool to see them boost its normal attacks too, maybe by giving them a fixed sweep pattern like the charge has.

@Metayya
Agreed. I've got a bunch of resources set aside in case a friend of mine ever wants to play this game, and even with a completely free ride, the ones I've discussed it with got turned away by all of the darker patterns so deeply entwined with every aspect of the game. "Check out this cool game with all this emergent gameplay and fun jank (affectionate)! But you have to learn to ignore all the very uncool things it'll try to nibble at you with and it's got heaps of unfixed annoying jank too." Hard sell.
Speaking of 'gamebreaking,' shoutouts to diskguns' ridiculous screenshake btw; didn't want to mention it because it felt like low hanging fruit since the discussion's been focused on principles but really, they're better at causing migraines than Nitronome.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 19:18
#10
Vyre-Acidlashed's picture
Vyre-Acidlashed
@Bopp - I'm familiar with the

@Bopp - I'm familiar with the statistical approach that Reydann is using here, and it's not that you're wrong about the expected value, but the original poster is trying to make a value judgement explicitly clear.

My math's giving me 2321 boxes (99.7% success rate (three standard deivations about the average of all results; binomial trial p=0.0025 for X >= 1)) with 1840 giving 99.001% exactly as Reydann stated.

What that means - broadly - is "If every single player spent enough money to buy 1840 boxes, 1% would never get the item." My test is the same, except the conclusion is "...0.3% would never get the item."

If every player bought 277 boxes, only half of the players that did would get an orbitgun. If every player bought 14 lootboxes, only 3% of those players would get an orbitgun.

Temptation is to conclude that playercount exists in a discrete space not a continuous one and this assessment isn't exactly realistic because of the axioms being applied to start with, i.e. "It's not reasonable to expect EVERY PLAYER wants an orbitgun, surely."

But if it's best in slot, that's... kind of the case, yeah. Regardless, that point is moot anyway; pessimistic or not, the central criticism is that "regardless of every player wanting one, it shouldn't be impossible for every player to get one without spending a LOT of money." The point isn't what it is to you or to me, the point is that there's a fair chance - a fifty-fifty chance - of someone who REALLY WANTS ONE not getting one after spending a thousand dollars trying, by burning through 277 boxes. It's an assessment of GH's responsibility to avoiding creating a game that feeds into some exceedingly dark patterns. That responsibility to the playerbase is at the very minimum, valuable optics.

I don't want to get into the ethics questions, I don't think it's a world-endingly serious issue, but it would be nice to know that the one guy in the playerbase with no impulse control isn't at risk of emptying his bank account for something he really wants. GH cannot stop that hypothetical player doing silly things with the rest of their entertainment, but as has been raised by other posters here, they CAN avoid the marketing headache of players saying things like "just ignore the nasty parts" by assuring players that they're trying to remove the "nasty parts" altogether, whatever shape they might take.

EDIT: Also, huge, HUGE shoutouts to Reydann for making this clear at all - I hadn't actually bothered poking around with stats calculators to really explore my feelings on the game's loot system, but seeing it laid bare really does make for an exceptionally valuable discussion opportunity and I'm really glad to see it being approached with the care it deserves.

A mechanism that might curtail this overspending might be for lootboxes to come with tokens packed into them that can be traded for a guaranteed "pick" off of the item's loot table, with token count associated with intended rarity, and this can impose a hard cap on the amount of boxes a player is *expected* to buy for a rare item OR INDEED a full set, and it potentially facilitates more spending over a broader number of players with each player spending less personally because a player might get to complete their collection.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 19:59
#11
Bopp's picture
Bopp
I don't disagree

Yes, I understand the calculation that Reydann was making, and what it means. When describing a probability distribution (which is essentially what we're doing here), it's helpful to have at least a couple of meaningful numbers about it.

As I mentioned in my post, I would like to move away from the probabilistic loot boxes altogether. I would like to see a mechanism where you can pay X crowns/energy/dollars and definitely get the object you wanted. The same goes for UVs from Punch.

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 20:03
#12
Draycos's picture
Draycos

Any sort of pity system would be big for gambleboxes, yeah. Even PSO2 has something in place for that

Guaranteed UVs by any means would be massive as well; never been a fan of them being chance-only

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 20:11
#13
Vyre-Acidlashed's picture
Vyre-Acidlashed

Sorry, yeah, just pitching in to see if it helps anyone else too.

As for UVs, yeah, some UV changes would be pretty good because right now they barely seem worth the time investment to interact with...

Thu, 07/02/2026 - 23:30
#14
Reydann's picture
Reydann
Yay, people talking about this important topic

Another point to make in the favour of making diskguns non p2w is that this is the only winning move right now. It's the thing that makes the most sense to bring GH more money. Again, I think it's clear that they are gunning for more popularity, and it is also clear that more players will bring in more money by buying more cosmetics, so I think it's reasonable to keep the momentum going in this particular direction. So make this change now and invest in your future population. Heck, if everything fails, just revert the changes later and keep milking the whales, its clear they are here to stay and they are fine with gambling.

@Draycos - exactly, let's not pretend that the diskguns are just an alternative playstyle that can be brushed off, yes, there are other strong guns in the game, but diskguns are unique and insanely good at what they do.
@Nut-Meg - good point, the f2p models are already in the game files, so its not an insane ask to make use of them
@Vyre-Acidlashed - thanks for the kind words, and yes, noone cares about being "likely" to win the gun, im sure everyone wants to know exactly what it takes to actually get the gun.

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 01:02
#15
Pallaskat's picture
Pallaskat
Somewhere

I've seen somewhere that they were discussing the matter of orbitgun.
I agree that locking an entire line behind a massive paywall is completely unreasonable, even more when the base models are in the files.
GH seems to want to keep rare items rare, so I frankly think we're never going to see the diskguns recipes.
Diskguns are like the ultimate end game goal, one can work his way up through farming and merching, that's definitely doable but extremely time consuming. I wouldn't ever do this kind of grinding, even if I was unemployed.
That being said, a few players grinded their way or swiped massive amounts to get diskguns, while they're not the majority of the playerbase, it would be quite unfair to just slap them in the face and make all their efforts worthless.
As much as I'd love having diskguns recipes, I think we're a little too far gone to make it possible.

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:50
#16
Reydann's picture
Reydann
@pallaskat

It's either *slapping* those players in the face or the players that dont have it + future players that are looking into the game. Me personally, I know im not sticking around if we dont hear their stance on this anytime soon, and im definitely not giving any money either while my trust in the game is low

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 04:35
#17
Pallaskat's picture
Pallaskat
Realistically

Realistically, it does not hurt anyone to not have a diskgun, it's fun, very overpowered but definitely not a must have.

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 07:23
#18
Vyre-Acidlashed's picture
Vyre-Acidlashed

These topics related to item rarity always seem to end up in the same place. I've never seen a diskgun, either used in the arcade or sold in the auctionhouse, so for my part, I genuinely don't know what could be so impressive about this. I have no horse in the race, but I still want to talk about the part I do understand.

When a player who owns the item talks about wanting to "retain its value," the tacit admission balled up in that is that the item has more value as a trading piece than it does in gameplay, and that's sort of a dire condemnation of the quality of the purchase. It's actually not fair on players who *have* the diskgun already, in a way - they're being asked to be okay with the fact that they had to pay a lot of money or time for something they will happily say "you don't really need one" about. Like, you had to pay this much money for something that's "only alright, I guess?"

And if it is quite fun to use, and you're not willing to part with it because it's very fun but much too expensive to blithely hand off at loss, that means the only option left is to buy one with your own money if you want to join in with that fun for prices already mentioned, or meet the demands of a reseller who very reasonably feels like they should be able to get a lot more out of the game for how much they spent. Nobody seems to be winning, here, save for maybe Grey Havens.

Either way, stating "it's a betrayal if the item is worth less now" speaks of dissatisfaction with its price, surely. "I want to get my money's worth, which partly implies one day having to give this item up to extract the remainder of its value that it, itself, didn't provide?"

Forgive me Reydann, for perhaps putting words in your mouth, but I think the statement is "The focus of this debate continues to be whether it's fair to expect anyone to put up with these demands *if* they want one, and whether we should be okay with a type of play expression being priced so high, no matter how minimal that change in play expression is. It actually doesn't matter if you're a merchant or a whale or a freeplayer - we are *all* being impacted by that cost one way or another."

It's not about the diskgun, you could switch out for literally any top-tier buy-only item here - the post is about lootbox practices, and the possible perception of a new player that they are expected to buy power. If they are any more powerful at all, then there will be a subset of players who value optimal gear who will feel as though they're being made fun of by someone. It just happens that the Mixmaster is turning out to be the posterchild of this discussion because it is, according to some, "the most differentest-est." I'll have to take everyone's word for it.

Heck, I feel bad for the merchants who will potentially have to put up with an influx of new players with no context, calling for heads on pikes because they're "price fixing" when they're just trying to keep the asking price *fair* for what it cost the merchants in the first place. We're probably going to see that kind of behaviour over something as humble as a Voltedge or Electron Vortex, never mind something like a Mixmaster.

To GH's credit, they are already making changes to the value of items that cost actual money, if only by proxy, and only starting with something comparatively quite cheap. This isn't even *close* to the asking price of the Mixmaster, but the OCH Sword and Bomb combo are now nominally free for everyone.

I feel like the most constructive thing to ask at this juncture is "what would you want in return as a Mixmaster owner, if GH told you "we are making diskguns and orbitguns craftable TOMORROW, no ifs-ands-or-buts"?" Somehow I don't think CUBE membership and a thousand slime coins will cut it. A "legacy" tag and a serial number? A unique cosmetic effect? I dunno, does it have some kind of disco sparkle effect or something that a craftable version shouldn't?

Like, we really can have both - if everyone who has a Mixmaster or whatever unanimously agrees, "yeah, we can settle for this being a very rare unique variant with a craftable non-unique entering the market." If that's not good enough, then we're left with the admission that the thing that makes it special is indeed its power, and that's just proving Reydann right. All they seem to want is a solution to the access problem and if that can be addressed without hurting anyone else, that's the ideal focus of the conversation, right?

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:42
#19
Reydann's picture
Reydann
Alright, fine

If the ultimate barrier that stands in the way of removing pay-to-win truly is the following statement: "the people who already paid to win will cry about it" then fine, I will offer the ultimate solution to this: Remove the item from the loot box, and put it in game at a price around 10-12 mil. crowns, which is the typical price people pay for it. Also, GH wants to keep it rare? Fine, make it buyable only twice per year, like it was with the equinox boxes. Curious to see the replies to this:)

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:16
#20
Bopp's picture
Bopp
yes

Yes, I want mixmasters/orbitguns to be buyable for a fixed price. Offering them only twice per year is fine, as many players will take years to save up the needed crowns anyway.

I would like to see the price much lower than 10 million crowns, but maybe that's just my being a baby. I don't know what Black Kat Raiments actually sell for, but getting one requires six Margrel trips, which in my time were charged 400,000 crowns each, for a total cost of 2.4 million crowns. For comparison.

If mixmasters/orbitguns are kept rare because they are mechnically broken or unbalanced, then I'd like to see them fixed and balanced.

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:42
#21
Calabrum
Add the craftable/earnable electric and fire disc guns + others

I agree with the idea that we should have identical craftable/earnable versions of the disc guns and that the mixmaster and orbit gun should just function as rare reskins. People who have them will still be able to show off their rare varients and the functionality won't be locked away for other players. They should probably also be re-balanced if they're truly so powerful and don't interact properly with enemy projectile dodging.

Additionally it'd be nice to have similar things for at least the Celestial Vortex, if not some of the other less notable weapon types (like the wands, Celestial Saber, Sweet Dreams) and the handful of shields which don't have craftable/earnable equivalents (Celestial Shield, Power Mitt and Teddy Bear Buckler).

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:47
#22
Reydann's picture
Reydann
Ultimately

In a perfect world, what Calabrum just said is the ideal fix, this would be the best implementation, the people who paid for their rare reskin get to keep the unique visuals and have no reason to be crybabies about it (surely)

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 08:52
#23
Vyre-Acidlashed's picture
Vyre-Acidlashed

Yep.

Fri, 07/03/2026 - 09:48
#24
Jcyrano's picture
Jcyrano
I have no idea what to say except...

Why Would they be crybabies they got it earlier... the rest had to craft it or wait furthermore, They can say "I got it before it was meta" or whatever.

I would totally add those items to a rotating Week of "insert here name" Kozma store, along with the Bechamel "insert name" week rotating store with accessories, to costume galore Your dreams! Both gear and outfits... for everyone to get without the %chance of (NOT) getting it...
For example:
Talk like a Pirate Week. Get Outfits and Accessories on Bechamel store and then run to Kozma to get the Sword, Flintlock and Keg! (if You didn't got it worry not, it will be back next year, or in 6 moth if is Solstice/Equinox week).

Why would people complain when:
A) There is no scarcity. If Your Eliteness depends on pixels... oh Waw! have You considered getting help? (I'm being harsh and No, I'm not sorry)
B) More people gets to use it and gather info about it, less likely to be bugged when many eyes check for interactions.
C) Share the game with more people. "You have crashed but You are NOT alone" is the frase we know this game for.

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