Hello there, it's Rey again, hoping to spark some positive discussion and who knows ...... maybe even changes?!
Since just one or two posts below this one, there is another post called "Communication Goes a Long Way," in which GM Clotho admitted that the team needs to get better at communicating, I think it's time we have a difficult conversation.
I think it's fair to say that Grey Havens are trying to improve the game with meaningful updates, in order to hopefully revive it, at least to some extent. I also think it's fair to say that veterans, newbies, and future players alike would like to know Grey Havens' stance and plans regarding the pay-to-win disk guns.
Here is some math showing just how pay-to-win this is. If anything is wrong, feel free to correct me in the replies and I'll adjust it.
The official promo lists the four rarest items together in a <1% bucket, so the most optimistic assumption is to treat that bucket as exactly 1% and split it evenly, giving Orbitgun a 0.25% per-box chance. Using 1−(1−𝑝)𝑛≥0.99 with 𝑝=0.0025 gives 𝑛≈1840 boxes for a 99%+ success rate. With prices of $4.95 each, $19.95 for 5, and $49.95 for 14, the cheapest real purchase mix for 1,840 boxes is about $6,568.35, and the true cost would be higher if the real Orbitgun rate is below 0.25%.
TL;DR: optimistically, it costs about $6,568.35 to reach a 99%+ chance of pulling an Orbitgun.
And because I know there will be some *people* in the replies arguing, "oH bUt YoU cAn BuY iT fRoM oThEr PlAyErS iN gAmE fOr CrOwNs So It'S nOt PaY-tO-wIn" — yes, it's a good thing that it's at least tradeable, but it's still pay-to-win, according to all definitions. And yes, I know the mixmaster is VERY RARELY added to featured auctions but the price will never end up not being ridiculous because its tied to the price of the orbitgun. In my opinion, by being mad about a suggestion of making the guns be generated through in-game means you are gatekeeping because you already bought it, so please, just don't.
I'm going to be blunt: this does not look good at all for the image or the future of the game, and it's the biggest reason why I would not recommend this game to my friends. Not because its impossible to get the gun, because if you keep playing you will for sure get it eventually, but because this does not make me trust the company not to make more pay-to-win stuff in the future.
If you want to have expensive loot boxes and gambling for cosmetics, fine, so be it; a Western audience might be able to live with that. (might be another discussion in of itself) But please keep this away from ANY type of gear.
I believe this is the moment to decide what direction you want to take with the game's monetization. Will you keep the pay-to-win elements and possibly add more of them in the future? Or will you fix things while they are still fixable and make these guns obtainable through in-game means? (my suggestion would be putting them behind prestige points since they serve no purpose anyway at the moment)
This game is at a crossroads, and if good updates keep coming it will get exposed to a bigger audience. That makes this the best possible time to decide what you want to do.
The ball is in your court, Grey Havens, but also in ours - the community, to a smaller extent. So let's have a -hopefully- productive discussion in the replies.
Thank you for your time
~ Rey
Which prize box is this? Are you referring to Equinox or am I missing something here? The wiki lists Celestial Orbitgun as a "<1%" chance in a pool of four items. Where are you getting the second 1%?
50$ / 14 boxes at ~$3.57 per with a 0.25% chance and zero pity system is still horrendous though (~$142.84), especially for something that doesn't have any analogous moveset available to the average player. The other items having unorthodox and not necessarily "good" but still unique stats is unsightly as well.
I've never liked that diskguns / orbitguns only existed as unique movesets held hostage as lootbox items, nor that they're extremely powerful relative to anything else the player can make. This is the same game that features Somnambulist Totems, Black Kat, and VH/Max UVs, though, so the only real difference is that there's a concrete real-money pricetag and rate displayed for it... not that I like that any of those are completely unrealistic for anybody to get within hundreds of hours of playtime.