Discussion of repercussions of the forge update. (with MATH!)

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Skepticraven's picture
Skepticraven

**Graveyarded because it is outdated info since the last rarity drop rate buff**

Ok, so I probably derailed a thread with doing some math in this post.
So I'm attempting to move the primary discussion over here.

The methods I use for the analysis are as follows:
The worth of a depth is determined by {net profit}-{net cost}
Net profit includes crowns, tokens, and radiant fire crystals looted from depths.
Tokens and radiant fire crystals are based off the measured probabilities described in my research thread.
Crown rates are based off my data for the arcade, and Lancer Knightz for missions.
Radiant fire crystal use is determined by optimal use and NOT using 3x crystals all the way, yielding 420 average crystals per 5* item.
Assumed transaction rate for crowns to energy is 8000 crowns per 100 energy. This is a heavily approximated average value outside promotional events.
Mist regenerated at 100 per 22 hours, or 1 per 13.2 minutes.

Purpose:
Discuss the pros and cons of the changes to the clockwork payout AND character progression from a variety of perspectives.
Discuss the these changes from both P2P and F2P perspectives.

NOT the purpose of this thread:
Please do NOT make suggestions for resolving these problems in this thread. You can reference my math in this thread, but make your own thread in the suggestions subforum.
Please do NOT just post simply to complain about radiants.
Please do NOT make up numbers. If you need help with the math, post a scenario and other people following this thread can help.
Please do NOT post complaints about my use of 8kcrn/100E rate. You can do the math at a different rate if you wish.

Link To Data:
HERE

My comments on the subject.

Although only IMF was studied below vanguard rank for 4* items... similar trends are expected as listed below.
F2Pers can easily progress up to vanguard much more easily, having their farming rate significantly increase if they play more than 10 depths a day.
P2Pers that used elevator passes see very little difference in farming rates.
It costs significantly more (ranging from 6-8x more just for 4/5* items) for a P2Per to use energy to upgrade their arsenal.
New F2Pers can get into the game and play more before hitting a cost wall.
Old P2Pers see a horrible net increase of costs to continue expanding their arsenal.
P2Pers do NOT have a method of increasing their farming rate to have a similar advantage as it previously was.

I'm sure I probably missed other aspects of P2P, such as not running the numbers on $ spent per heated 5* item, using mist for crafting, and whatnot (but got tired of typing math - so someone else can step in).

TL;DR
Endgame F2Pers see about a 50% increase in farming time.
Endgame P2Pers see about 800% increase in cost.
New players can play the game longer before running into a farming wall (and either suck it up and farm or pay 8x as much as it used to cost).

Feyi-Feyi's picture
Feyi-Feyi

TL;DR

Momofuku's picture
Momofuku

You are probably better off sharing a link to a public Google drive spreadsheet than to type out a lot of math in plain text.

Seiran's picture
Seiran
question + time;

Why is the profit for FSC so low for your post-forge? Isn't every FSC run purely profit now, with your only loss as time?
5.6k for a full run (tokens excluded) is in the range of the amount I'd make when I'm skipping as many monsters as possible, not for '12 minute depth' full runs.

______

That said, something interesting might be putting these in context of time.

It's not fully related, but for example (my own data):

Full FSC run with a party of 4:
+8500 cr
+3 tokens
+3 radiants
-50 minutes (decent run)

Sounds good, yes?

FSC speed run solo (duo is faster btw):
+5500 cr
+3 tokens
+3 radiants
-25 minutes (decent run)

The raw loot sounds worse until you put it in the context of time:
You can do two speed runs in the same time as the former, netting you 11000+ cr, twice the tokens, and twice the radiants.

Simulating the time in a spreadsheet, the speed runs can knock off about 10 hours of time, aiming for the "100%" 453 crystals.

For the curious, my calculations are as such:
tokensGained = 3
crownsPicked = 5500 cr
crPerEnergy = 8000 cr / 100 energy = 80 cr/e
radiantsPicked = 3
timeTaken = 25 min
targetAmount = 453 radiants

crownWorth = (1000cr)* (tokensGained) + (crownsPicked)
energyWorth = crownWorth/(crPerEnergy)
energyPerMin = energyWorth/timeTaken
radiantsWorth = energyWorth/(14 energy per crystal) + radiantsPicked
radiantsPerMin = radiantsWorth/timeTaken
hoursToGoal = targetAmount/radiantsPerMin / (60 min per hour)

With speed runs, I got about 17.8 hours of grinding and dedicating all CE to buying Radiants from Supply Depot. With 50 minute normal runs, I came to 28.45 hours of the same.

___

In comparison, I did a modified version of the same, subtracting 45-48 CE (50CE for elevator costs +mist regen depending on speed run or not), and prioritizing it to reaching 800CE (crafting cost) as the goal (800/energyPerMin/60min per hour), with tuned down CR gains (4800 speed run, 7500 full run):

Speed runs would need about 6.72 hours of grinding
Full runs would need about 7.8 hours of grinding

Skepticraven's picture
Skepticraven
@Momofuku

Shifted data to spreadsheet form, and removed the % increase values (because they seem easy to bring up confusion).

Edit:
@Seiran

Speedruns definitely bring up F2Pers harvesting rates even more.
Additionally, I was basing my numbers on average public runs. My personal solo runs are about half the time of the publics (but less fun).

Thunder-The-Bright's picture
Thunder-The-Bright
gods ain't gonna help you, son.

before mist you could mist crafting and most (well, all) F2Pers did it. maybe even some P2Pers. you should count that too.
well, it's good to see that overall the game has shifted to the F2P side. I have something else to say but I would derail the thread, so nope.

Remove-The-Forge's picture
Remove-The-Forge
We're probably better off

We're probably better off making a different paywall system.

Skepticraven's picture
Skepticraven
@Remove-The-Forge

Go troll somewhere else and stop necroing threads without any contribution to the discussion.