Spiral Knights - Punch UVs on bombs

Punch UVs on bombs

6 replies [Last post]

Fri, 03/25/2016 - 13:23

Donkey-Haute

I know that there have been studies of Punch UV rates in the past. In this thread I'd like to present some data specifically on bombs.

total bomb 1-UV tickets bought: 88
fraction of those giving CTR: 17 / 88
fraction of those giving CTR+1: 17 / 17.

What is the chance of getting CTR?

There are seven types of UVs possible on bombs. So one would expect CTR to have a 1 / 7 chance, or about 14%. In our data, we estimate the chance at 17 / 88 = 19%. But there is some uncertainty in that estimate. The 95% confidence interval (based on the normal approximation, which is valid in this case) is [11%, 28%]. Because 14% falls into this interval, we cannot reject the idea that the chance is 1 / 7.

If you're going to get CTR, then what are the chances of getting more than +1?

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that chances were programmed like this: 80% for +1 and 20% total for +2, +3, +4. Then the probability of getting 17 +1 UVs would be (0.8)^17 = 2%. So our data would be pretty strange. Therefore we reject the premise that the chances are programmed that way. It seems that the chance of getting +1 is more than 80%.

In other words, almost every bomb CTR that you get from Punch is going to be +1. :(

Question

Have you ever gotten bomb CTR+2, CTR+3, or CTR+4 from Punch? Recently?

(Please notice that I am not asking about UVs from crafting, nor UVs on non-bombs. I've gotten large bomb CTR from crafting, and I've gotten some great UVs from Punch.)

Fri, 03/25/2016 - 14:34

Bopp

hi there

My results are probably part of your data set, so I can't confirm independently. But the following threads from 2012 have some large Punch bomb CTRs.

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/65203#comment-537030
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/67295#comment-557847

They also have status UVs on shields. So they may be too outdated to be relevant. I wonder whether anyone has gotten large bomb CTR from Punch since he was changed.

Fri, 03/25/2016 - 17:28

Veridiandynamics

Timing?

What is the exact timing on "recently" or "since he was changed" ?

I UV'd a few electron charges.
Was basically two seperate times.

First one was roughly 14-16 months ago.
Invested 3 million crowns, so thats 150 piece of 1x UV.
Ended up with 2 CTR Meds, 2 CTR Highs, and when i got my CTR Very High i stopped. So basically 5 bombs were created.

Second one was 4-5 months ago.
Invested 500.000 crowns, equals to 25 piece of 1x UV.
Result: 1 CTR Medium and at the end again a CTR Very High. I also stopped there of course. Actually if i remember correctly i got the CTRVH like after 350kcr, but i was so happy i just randomly punched away another 150kcr on another bomb, kind of rewarding Punch for being so generous with me :D

I want to add: in my SK career i spent roughly 60 million crowns on Punch at least (not a penny realmoney tho'). Might be more, but thats the number i can admit anyways cuz i know its accurate. Was mostly on swords, guns, helms and armors. Just a fragment on bombs (listed above) and shields. I remember when i got my 2nd VH for my Combuster for only 300.000 crowns (4 of 2xUV) and it became a GM Weapon, thus having ASIVH+CTRVH. But i also remember wasting 15 million crowns for a shadow low UV as a 3x. :) Had to stop there cuz i basically ran out of money.
So from my perspective of experience i believe the final conclusion is simple: it is absolutely random and luck dependant. Even with big numbers.

Fri, 03/25/2016 - 17:53

Bopp

that's the point

What is the exact timing on "recently" or "since he was changed" ?

Well he got a major change in release 2012-04-25 (locking). But I don't know when statuses became impossible to get on shields. It's not in the release notes. But certainly it's not in the past year.

it is absolutely random and luck dependant. Even with big numbers.

That's the point of statistics: to understand the probability of random events. It offers tools to analyze data, even though those data are random.

I wish that we had your data set. Anyway, thanks for your comments. And congratulations on your comparative good luck with bombs.

Fri, 03/25/2016 - 22:03

Fehzor

Within the last several months I've gotten a ctr +4 and two ctr +2 uvs on bombs.

Sat, 03/26/2016 - 04:13

Veridiandynamics

OFFTOPIC

Sorry for the OFFTOPIC.

I wish that we had your data set.

Yeah i often thought about it myself, but at the beginning i never knew i would spend so much on Punch so i just didnt care to note it down. After a while when i realized i tried to remember but sadly it has been already inaccurate.

Anywayz here are my Punch stories, if its any help. Trying to remember them correctly...

I already wrote some in my previous post. These are the others i can remember.

1) 3 millions spent on AP until i got ASI VH (1xUV) . Cant remember if i got ASI H in the process, but i wanted ASI VH and i only settled when i actually got it.

2) 200.000 crowns spent on a Mixmaster, ended up with ASI VH (1xUV). (Lol?)

3) Around 7 millions (not accurate) spent overall on an already Normal MAX SSB. Result: Normal MAX + Shadow MAX + Piercing MAX (2xUV and 3xUV).

4) 5 millions (not accurate) spent on an already CTR VH Brandish to get ASI VH too (2xUV). Success.

5) My 2nd biggest failure (First one i mentioned above: it was a BKC already Fire+Shock MAXed. A 15 mil waste as i tried to 3xUV it and not a single MAX came.) : spent 10 mil to get CTR VH on an already ASI VH Blitz (2xUV). Did not happen, gave up. Now that i look back it was actually "not so smart" even to try it in my opinion. At the end i got CTR H as 2nd UV, and just sold the cursed thing.

6) Recently tried to UV a Fiend MED/or higher Autogun. Spent 1 million. Ended up with a Fiend High, but Got a CTR MED in the process and also a CTR VH Around 800.000 crowns (1xUV).

7) Spent 20 millions to get my dream BK Raiment and succeded in it. It was 1xUV then 2xUV then 3xUV . Ended up with Fire Stun Shock MAX. Those 3 were the most wanted combination for me.

8) Spent 1 million (not accurate) on a BTS (1xUV) . Ended with Normal MAX.

Sat, 03/26/2016 - 19:48

Wild-Cisco

One question, how in the hell

One question, how in the hell do you get so many crowns if you don't spend real money veridian, thats insane!

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Punch UVs on bombs