6 boxes
0 key.
Common guys there are more and more shadow keys appearing on the AH without buy outs, what's this?
Something smells fishy to me.
Post # of Boxes opened vs # of Shadow Keys obtained (3.54%)
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 23:07
#52
6 boxes
0 key.
Common guys
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 23:12
#53
@Stelli
You have to consider
@Stelli
You have to consider the keys that they're giving out through Twitter and Facebook.
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 23:27
#54
i suspect that OOO is adding
i suspect that OOO is adding those themselves
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 23:30
#55
got lucky
1 key out of 4 boxes
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 06:17
#56
I guess since I already
I guess since I already mentioned my boyfriend, I'll mention my data too. Got two boxes hoping for something interesting but they were both canteens. We still have no mustache :<
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 06:55
#57
All they gotta do is remove
All they gotta do is remove the gambling aspect (design shadow boxes and shadow keys instead of opening lockboxes with silver keys) and the problem is solved
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:34
#58
:-D
0 Lockboxes opened (since accessory update)
0 Shadow keys found
And I'm even not boycotting accessories or Shadow Lairs ;-D
I just still have some 5 rank gear to craft and not much time to play this month.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:51
#59
"i suspect that OOO is adding
"i suspect that OOO is adding those themselves"
I think 000 is putting them up there too. I'm HOPEFUL they continue to do it forever and that eventually the player base realizes that buying direct from 000 through the AH is the best way to get them. If 000 puts up 6-8 shadow keys every 2 days, I don't really have a problem with the new content. Then shadow keys would just be a "nice bonus" to players digging through lockboxes for accessories, and not the primary source of them.
It would create a crown sink and at the same time stop draining the economy of needed CE.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:27
#60
Had a friend last night open
Had a friend last night open 14 boxes, no keys.
Myself after that trying to help.
7 boxes
0 keys
Glad I don't pay $$ for CE atm...
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:52
#61
@Kirnan
That was already
@Kirnan
That was already counted before your post. *updating totals now*
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:19
#62
Now that I'm thinking about
Now that I'm thinking about it, I too am think how likely it is for the first AH Shadow Keys to be OOO plants. They were up relatively quickly at the same time as each other, and patterned in very similar starting prices. And after those 8 or so were up, barely any more was added that day and the following day.
And the comment about them being massive crown sinks makes it even more of a convincing theory to me. Two birds with one stone for OOO: actually seeding the demand for shadow keys rather than being hoarded by the rich players (especially since none of them had buy prices), while also having players sink a ton of crown on those being auctioned off.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:23
#63
@Bluescreenofdeath
Add 7 more fails to that count D:<
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:24
#64
@Khamsin
Slipping them into
@Khamsin
Slipping them into the AH on the sly seems a bit shady though. Along with numerous stealth patches it just doesn't seem like a good way to cultivate consumer trust. Not saying I want OOO to stop slipping Shadow Keys into the AH, I'm just saying that being open about it would be a better approach. Even better would be to put a reasonable crown price tag on keys from a vender. Really in all honesty I think scrapping the keys and going with a new system is the way to go (or maybe keys that expire in 30 days like our trinket & weapon slots, though I also hate expiring weapon & trinket slots I am at least willing to stomach the expense). OK, I'll stop discussing. Sorry, this thread was just intended for data collection...
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:45
#65
I can vouch for OOO adding
I can vouch for OOO (possibly) adding things in the auction house. Back about week or two ago, when people were complaining a lot about accessories being unobtainable, I checked the accessories' lowest buyout prices. Literally there were 10 accessories ALL at the buyout of 5k cr, INCLUDING a toasty pipe which I managed to snag.
I'm quite sure no one is foolish enough to do this. I would not expect an ignorant new player to buy that much money and proceed to use it on lockboxes, only to then sell everything in the AH for a bid price of 60cr and a buyout of 5k cr.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:47
#66
the day shadow keys came out
the day shadow keys came out there were instantly 3-5 of them for sale at the AH for 50k, I don't know about you but if I somehow miraculously stumbled on one the last thing I would be doing is trying to sell it for 50k ESPECIALLY on the day they came out.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:08
#67
Keep in mind we have a GLOBAL
Keep in mind we have a GLOBAL player base. Even if they're super rare we probably had thousands of players opening lockboxes. I know my boyfriend got on first try after and his inclination was to auction it off. I think it's possible that all of the shadow keys were obtained by players.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:25
#68
I smell conspiracy theory
I smell conspiracy theory
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:57
#69
0 boxes
0 keys
0 boxes
0 keys
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:03
#70
.
>the day shadow keys came out there were instantly 3-5 of them for sale at the AH for 50k, I don't know about you but if I somehow miraculously stumbled on one the last thing I would be doing is trying to sell it for 50k ESPECIALLY on the day they came out.
Lockboxes were going for 30k cr on their first day. That's a good deal for those first few sellers. Shadow key prices won't stabilize for a while yet, and players who don't have the gear for the shadow lairs might as well sell.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:54
#71
Those keys on the first day
Those keys on the first day without buyouts were on the AH within at most a minute or two of the server being up. Seems very suspicious to me since one player couldn't have opened enough boxes to obtain them in that time and it seems very unlikely multiple players would all choose to sell at the same start price and without buyouts set.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:55
#72
"Those keys on the first day
"Those keys on the first day without buyouts were on the AH within at most a minute or two of the server being up. Seems very suspicious to me since one player couldn't have opened enough boxes to obtain them in that time and it seems very unlikely multiple players would all choose to sell at the same start price and without buyouts set."
All of this.
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:26
#73
found 1 key when opened my
found 1 key when opened my 3rd box. to obtain the shadow key is all about randomness and gambling with luck .
Do 3rings give away their keys randomly on twitter? why on twitter but in game? is it fair for those that don't use twitter , or cant access to twitter?
why don't give away keys randomly to those that opened boxes ?
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:37
#74
The only guess as to why
The only guess as to why Twitter (and Facebook) is because not everybody can have their game client running at all times, especially at work. It's much easier for people to enter contests at work or during school over a 1-2 hour timeframe, or on their phones, than to have their game client up.
(However, the mask codes on Twitter need to be entered as soon as they're given if you even want a ghost of a chance, but since masks are far more easily obtainable, it's not as much of a "loss" as missing a Shadow key code would be.)
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 01:01
#75
"Those keys on the first day
"Those keys on the first day without buyouts were on the AH within at most a minute or two of the server being up. Seems very suspicious to me since one player couldn't have opened enough boxes to obtain them in that time and it seems very unlikely multiple players would all choose to sell at the same start price and without buyouts set."
Actually I was the very first one to bid on a shadow key. At that time there was only 1 shadow key on the AH, and the starting offer was 1050 crowns (or 1500, don't remember). I am POSITIVE that I was the FIRST to bid on it.
Within 30 seconds the price was up to 37K. A minute later it was around 70K.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 05:00
#76
15 boxes, 0 keys.
I have
15 boxes, 0 keys.
I have never been so angry at getting divine accessory and an aura.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 06:28
#77
1 box. 1. key
1 box. 1. key
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:37
#78
4 boxes, 0 keys.
total CE:
4 boxes, 0 keys.
total CE: 3000
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 18:30
#79
47 Boxes
Keys -- 17
47 Boxes
Keys -- 17
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 18:36
#80
1 box
1 key
haven't tried
1 box
1 key
haven't tried anymore boxes, nor do I want to.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 21:06
#81
There seems to be
There seems to be 10 shadow keys that gets added everyday around 12:00am for me. They all go on the same bid price and "Long." So today I waited and :D they were there, I took a screenshot.
http://cloud.steampowered.com/ugc/613840289958738395/A656113C7824AF3F8D6...
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 21:43
#82
Well, that is
underhanded, to say the least. I wonder how long the trend of 10 keys appearing will go for.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:06
#83
9 Boxes 0 Keys
9 boxes and 0 keys?????
for real?
Nick....... Nick................ Seriously, you are a genius, we should partner up!
/end sarcasm
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:14
#84
Just thinking out aloud here....
Getting a Shadow Key is pretty much like real Gambling since CE relates to real world money. So is a game really legally allowed to operate as gambling no different than Online Poker? CE...Chips....same thing right?! They won't tell us the drop percentages....but don't casinos, lotteries, and other gambling have to legally tell you the odds?
Whatever the case....since they don't even tell you the odds, it's worse than legitimate gambling. This is kind of like those Carnivals games to win a stuffed animal, the odds are grossly against you, and even if you do "win" you don't get the big stuffed animal....you get the 10 cent plastic toy (accessory) that isn't worth the cost to try. Despicable.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:21
#85
the planted keys are
the planted keys are creepy...
but people, where the hell are you getting all those boxes? you all keep talking about how rare it is to get a key out of a box, but what about the box itself? i mean, the boxes can only be obtained via the prize wheel, right? all i ever get on those damn things is 5 crowns and ecto drops... i've only ever gotten two boxes, which i of course auctioned off. and both of them were before the update...
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:23
#86
Blitz, your criminal
Blitz, your criminal suggestions certainly took the issue to a whole different, more exciting level! =D
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:25
#87
(ah, i guess you're probably
(ah, i guess you're probably buying them at the AH, seeing they're so cheap lately... i should have thought of that, but i really couldn't care less about them)
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 03:33
#88
@Njthug lol! er I mean
@Njthug
lol! er I mean Trollol... I call BS.
So, u personally opened 47 boxes and found 17 keys... While out of 220 other boxes, only 7 keys were found?.. Nice try. AH and other purchases trades whatever are not what I'm counting here.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 03:49
#89
So...if I posted
47 Boxes
1
So...if I posted
47 Boxes
1 Key
You would add that into your % since the goal of this topic is to show how low the drop rate % is I guess....when in reality this study is already flaw since people can lie about his or her #'s easily.
47 Boxes
17 Keys well now its
48 Boxes
18 Keys...
But ya those are my #'s
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 19:33
#90
This study is flawed not only
This study is flawed not only because people can lie about their numbers. There's a huge self-selection bias going on here.
For me to have a chance at trusting these numbers, we need people committing to post their results BEFORE they actually open the boxes... then post their results.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:20
#91
Just to add data, I have
Just to add data, I have opened 5 since release and 0 keys were found.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:56
#92
Njthug I just wanted to let
Njthug I just wanted to let you know that you're lying about your numbers.
First of all, let's assume a 20% shadow key drop rate. I don't think it's a stretch to assume that's certainly higher than the true percentage.
Under a 20% drop rate, the chance of getting at least 18 shadow keys out of 48 (that's the chance of getting your data or something more extreme) is 0.003%. That's less than half a percentage point, which means your data is quite the rare event.
If we instead assume a 15% drop rate (still high IMO, I doubt the actual rate is higher than 5%), the probability of getting at least 18/48 shadow keys drops to 0.00005%. That's one hundredth of half a percentage point.
assuming a 10% drop rate, the chance of at least 18/48 shadow keys becomes indistinguishable from zero using the statistical software R.
In other words, you're lying.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 10:09
#93
Except... He's not lying.
Except... He's not lying. Well, he could be, but the idea is your statistical evidence does not prove guilt. It IS possible that out of 48 boxes that 18 of those fell under the drop rate and gave him a key. It's just incredibly unlikely. Even so unlikeliness =/= impossibility; luck is luck and random is random, after all.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 11:57
#94
As they say...
...we can't actually believe these results. We haven't any proof at all that you are actually opening boxes and all that without screenshots, even more so as boxes are prices in the wheel that are actually rare too. If this is a SERIOUS (lack of italics, sorry) study you should all give proof or else OOO will write off this as a rant/boicot.
I am not saying that you aren't telling the truth. But why should we believe you?
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 12:00
#95
Lockboxes: 0
Shadow Keys:
Lockboxes: 0
Shadow Keys: 0
Feels good man
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 12:21
#96
Somethings messed up when
Somethings messed up when there arent even keys on the auction house. I checked a while ago, werent there.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 19:01
#97
he maybe just get so lucky
well if he is not lying (i dont think so because this anyway its gambling and he got lucky :P Njthug why not consider to buy a lottery ticket? you probably would win D:) then this just prove even more why people complain about shadow key, while other just spent about even 50k Ce and they dont get nothing, others can be a lot lucky and got the key on the first 5 boxes maybe? anyways the shadow key rate its still low if more people post their data but big amount of boxes opened maybe get a big chances to get a few keys. but still, the rate of shadow key its low.
but of course none of us would open about 50 boxes just for data gathering purposes. but also i admit that 47 boxes 17 keys its a bit suspicious but hey, its gambling always someone would get so lucky :P (really Njthug consider to buy a lottery ticket).
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:23
#98
What if there are no rates, all random.
What if there aren't any rates? The chance of getting any item from lockbox is the same. I counted 335 accessories in spiral knights wiki. 335 + the shadow key gives a 1/336 chance of getting a shadow key. (1/336) x 100 = 0.29% (cba to type all decimals) chance of getting a shadow key from a lockbox. The chance may be higher as I think there are some accessories on wiki that haven't been added in game e.g. wings and halo (atleast I haven't seen any of them around).
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:38
#99
Orangeo, want to know the
Orangeo, want to know the funny thing? Two hours after you posted that (right now), there are 8 Shadow Keys up again, with relatively low starting prices, again with no buys.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:38
#100
@Darkblizarga Nick has
@Darkblizarga Nick has already stated that the drop rates for box contents are not uniform.
Riodaisho said his guild did 19 boxes and got 1 key, that is why I added them up that way.