Orangeo, want to know the funny thing? Two hours after you posted that (right now), there are 8 Shadow Keys up again, with relatively low starting prices, again with no buys.
It is pretty obvious that OOO is putting up keys on the AH. In effect, OOO is selling shadow keys for crowns, just not at a fixed price. This has dropped the cr<->CE exchange rate some, while providing shadow keys for far less than players could get by opening lockboxes.
I agree. 3 rings is probably putting those shadow keys up. Just look at how rare Darkfang shields are even though it's been in game for months.
If you want excitement, you should find out who regulates Online Gambling and lodge a complaint and see if this gets investigated, LOL. I've been trying to think if any other MMO's have anything close to this level of Gambling, but I can't think of any.
Well, I suppose the drop rate could be worse. 5% is what it ought to be in my opinon though.
Well, we already did suggest that OOO was doing that since the beginning of the last page.
I pointed out the recent plant since it seems to suggest that they will continue to do so at a relatively regular page.
Replicant, you don't seem to understand how vanishingly small these numbers are. You seem to be stuck on the fact that the possibility exists, which is certainly true. However, you've giving Njthug way too much credit, considering how in the same post he argued that it's easy for people to lie about their data.
When faced with a dilemma like this, it's best to apply the "greater miracle" approach.
Assume the shadow key drop rate is 10% (still much higher than the current projected 3.18%).
Ask yourself "which is the greater miracle?"
That Njthug is not lying, that he actually did open 48 boxes and got 18 keys, is some number less than 1 out of a million . We don't actually know the value because it's so small that R simply computes it as zero.
or
That Njthug lied, especially considering how IN HIS POST he mentioned that the data was inaccurate because people can lie. Huh. I wonder why he might have said that?
The answer should be obvious.
@Njthug
It's not like this is the first post of yours I've ever read. I've seen you troll before, so I'm sorry I just don't trust your numbers because they are soooooo way off from the rest. I have stated that I am worried about bias & I have realized that I could be getting people low balling their success rates. I would also question anybody reporting, say over 200 boxes opened and no keys found (which is still statistically closer to the average so far then what you claimed). Really the only way to come anywhere near fact checking all the numbers would be to have everybody post a video showing each box being opened. Problem is this is not very practical and would end up with a tiny sample size. Hey, since you are such an avid key box popper, why don't you record a video of you opening say 10 keys in a row? You should get ~4 Keys if you keep up your "current" rate. Do that and I will apologize for my slander and call everybody else that has posted here a bunch of bloody liers...
I guess this thread has told me all I really want to know. That there is no way I am wasting my time looking for shadow keys in lock boxes. Honestly the more people that post the better the odds have looked. At first it looked like barely a 2% chance, but as more number have come in that number has come up to 3%. Thing is though its still not even in the ballpark of what I would be willing to put with even if that number doubled to 6%. Also, there has been at least 2 patches since the release of Shadow Keys. I would put a large sum of real money on a bet that OOO has made efforts to adjust the drop rate since the release. So, chances are it has changed since the time that I started this thread.
Njthug has bought quite a lot of keys from me, so he probably opened quite lot of boxes, I wasn't there to see the contents though, and I've seen him troll before :P On the other hand I've seen quite a lot of box openings by other people (sadly didnt count) and only one shadow key was awarded, so I'm more likely to trust the low percentage than the higher one, the only cool "expensive" thing that popped often enough were shadow auras, and possibly side blades (which doesnt mean its often enough for a single person with limited resources, just often in general), that's why I keep suggesting not to open boxes unless you know what you are doing.
Yup. Nick. I tell you what. I will give you 20 dollars for a key. You cool with that. This gambling crap is stupid!
Edit: title to add 9 boxes to my previous count.
Really, I wouldn't use the numbers here as anything to go by. Lots of sampling bias here.
The answer should be obvious.
It's entirely possible that he's lying, but it's also possible that he's telling the truth. The statistical evidence points to that he's lying because of overwhelming odds, sure, I understand that, but it's not absolute evidence. Because of this, there is no definite evidence of guilt. I'm not giving anyone credit - I'm not even saying that I believe him. All I said was that the possibility was out there that he was telling the truth so you cannot say for certain that he isn't.
People should really make the Shadow Keys lesser price cuz it wont be sure to be a successful run :\ just a suggestion though
This may sound silly but you may want to start constructing a mean and a standard deviation. This would help in computing other statistics.
(Taking a statistics course. I have a TI-84 so I could do some tests. With the data you presented I constructed the probability of getting one key out of 20 lockboxes to be roughly 34%, for example)
They probably think it's fine that this is all a massive gamble (most ridiculous abuse of microtransactions ive ever seen, btw) cus they'll just say "you dont have to pay anything! you can get it from the AH!" clever thing being of course, someone ALWAYS has to pay, regardless of where you personally got the CE from
The format of this "new" content (of which there is actually very little) is a slap in the face if you ask me
@Blitzwingoo
I play Wizard101 as well and the card packs they sell are fully randomized as well. I think there's not nearly as much rage though since the rare stuff that people actually want is permanent, there's always lots of other useful stuff, and you can sell the crap for a decent amount of money at the Bazaar.
If OOO is indeed putting keys on the AH, it will almost certainly always be cheaper to buy a key with crowns than gamble one with CE, given how abysmally low the drop rate is and the current exchange rates. If OOO wants people to actually gamble a consumable item the drop rate needs to be much higher (~20%).
Of course, they're not dumb and my tinfoil sense tells me they're using the shadow keys to sink all the excess crowns/CE people have been hoarding for the last six months, and once the amount of CE in circulation drops to whatever target they're going for they'll put the keys on a vendor or increase the drop rate from the lockboxes.
@Wuvvums it's a binomial distribution, a simple mean is enough to calculate all the relevant probabilities; the standard deviation is derived directly from the mean.
Pretty much. That's what I did. You can also use binomial distributions in excel.
Oops forgot to post here (^^;)
Well My first box opened since the update, and I got a Shadow Key.
WOOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course, they're not dumb and my tinfoil sense tells me they're using the shadow keys to sink all the excess crowns/CE people have been hoarding for the last six months, and once the amount of CE in circulation drops to whatever target they're going for they'll put the keys on a vendor or increase the drop rate from the lockboxes.
That's just wrong if that's what they're doing. CE represents money somebody actually paid, and it's still money paid even if somebody farmed some levels and paid for it with crowns. If they're trying to get people to gamble away CE to reduce the amount in circulation without providing people with any real value, that's just stealing in my opinion. eg. Buying the silver key to open the box, you don't get the shadow key, you get something worth less than the silver key, no real value, you lose, OOO is stealing from you.
If they later put the Shadow Keys on vendors, or increase the drop rate....then they're penalizing the early adopters, the people who were first to dump loads of CE into trying to get the Shadow Key. You know, the people who supported them. Sure you might think, "those were the idiots that supported OOO's stupid idea, they deserve it"....but really they're just victims who fell for the scam, willingly or not.
Agh....the more I think about it, the more I loath OOO for this mess.
@Wuvvums getting a bit off topic, but you should look into learning R if you're at all interested in statistics. It's completely free, and far, far superior to pretty much anything else I've used for statistical data processing.
I am a mathematician, for what it's worth.
I'm not sure how far I'm going to veer off from my major (accounting) and I don't have much to invest but I did find the statistics, at least the basics, to be rather fun as a math course.
@Atron
So, I counted your #111 as 10 boxes and 0 keys. Is that right? Please, just post boxes opened since your last post so I don't have to go back, search out old posts, and subtract previously counted boxes/keys. Thanks.
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/30115?page=1#comment-181618
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/30115?page=2#comment-182510
I opened a Box & got a Box.
(Nah, I haven't even opened 1 Lockbox, cuz I dun trust Chance Items. Gaia's taught me that. ;-;)
((Oh, by the way, if you guys have so many 'Useless' Accessories from your Boxes, why dun't you send 'em ovar to meh? :D))
3 boxes, 0 shadow keys. The best part: 2 barrel bellies and a maid headband, yay!
I second that R is really useful if you're interested in doing statistics. For example, the probability you calculated earlier would have the command
pbinom(1,20,.0318) - pbinom(0,20,.0318)
Gives the probability (exactly one key out of 20) as you described before, 34.4%
Using the new estimated p=.0321, I now calculate the probability of AT LEAST 1 key out of 20 trials:
1 - pbinom(0,20,.0321)
= 0.4792734
Ironskullkid, you reminded me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVCM3hNEhdg
I remember during one of my exams I had to find P at least 50 or something like that and the calculator was so clunky. I pretty much had to store a list somewhere and graph it in to find the probability from out of like... 190 values. And I had to make that list manually. I never got time to complete it within the two hour exam and I swear it took forever for it to try and graph because of the 190 values.
(They wouldn't let me use R for this, by the way)
@Wuvvums for questions like that you're usually intended to do some algebraic manipulations of the PDF or CDF to isolate the variable(s) of interest.
Since this thread is kind of off in the weeds now, I'd like to take this time to recommend that you do continue to study statistics alongside your accounting studies. Doing so will set you up for actuarial work which is a pretty badass career path (though there's some post-school credentialling you'll need to go through to become a full actuary).
We'll probably have to see after I get my masters and I'm geared up to pass my certification. I hope that they'll have me equipped to do whatever job I aim at, but by the end of getting my masters I should be somewhat ready to get my certification as a CPA. I can do extra studies after that (can't afford too much right now).
I unboxed a Shadow Key on my 2nd Lockbox. I just opened totally random and got one.
OHGODNECRO
Hey, look, a Shadow Key from a lockbox...
OHGODNECRO
I remember this thread. If only people knew the truth about lock boxes back then.
NERCOMANCER DETECTED
PROTESTING FOR ELIMINATION
Also, Lockboxes are really random. :/
"What if there aren't any rates? The chance of getting any item from lockbox is the same. I counted 335 accessories in spiral knights wiki. 335 + the shadow key gives a 1/336 chance of getting a shadow key. (1/336) x 100 = 0.29% (cba to type all decimals) chance of getting a shadow key from a lockbox. The chance may be higher as I think there are some accessories on wiki that haven't been added in game e.g. wings and halo (atleast I haven't seen any of them around)."
This is almost certainly not how it works. For this to be true there would be an even number of each item and color in the action house. First there is a random chance of picking out an accessory/shadow key (of which there is only 36 and where rates most certainly apply) then when an item is picked a color is randomly added to it (where again rates apply for the rare colors).
The chance of getting a shadow key has to be relatively close to 1:36 or 2.8%. Since we know it is not as common as the most common accessories (> 2.8%) and not as rare as the most rare (< 2.8%) by doing a quick sampling of the AH.
Another way to go about finding the probability of the shadow keys is to find the probability of other accessories. If all accessories had an even chance of showing up it would be 2.8% chance each (as outlined above). If an accessory had a particularly high percentage of showing up like 12% it would drop all the other's chances to 2.5%; however if an accessory had a particularly low percentage of showing up like 0% it would only increase the others to 2.9% since the initial value is so low to begin with.