Spiral Knights - Post # of Boxes opened vs # of Shadow Keys obtained (3.54%)

Post # of Boxes opened vs # of Shadow Keys obtained (3.54%)

140 replies [Last post]

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:45

Bluescreenofdeath

How may licks does it take to get to the Shadow Key center of lucky Lockbox? (so far the answer is 28)

Just post the exact total number of Lockboxes that you personally have opened as well as the exact number of Shadow Keys you found inside said Lockboxes.

I'll update the tally here:

*Updated, as of post #133 (Njthug omitted for now)*

Lockboxes: 254
Shadow Keys: 9
% Lockboxes containing Keys: 3.54%
CE cost to open one Key: 21,167 CE

Please don't post other peoples data it will be more accurate that way.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:49

Vlad

Lockboxes: III Shadow Keys:

Lockboxes: III
Shadow Keys: 0/3
& Keys: 0%
CE cost of Keys: 2250 CE

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 13:17

Aylnine

Just something to add to

Just something to add to this, could people also post if they opened "fresh" boxes? Fresh meaning boxes that were attained by the prize wheel only after the patch was released, not before -- I'm trying to see if my theory of old boxes containing ONLY accessories is true and if so, could explain why people are not getting a fair ratio of key to box. Also, please do not assume that any boxes from the AH or sold by other people are fresh.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 13:28

Bluescreenofdeath

@Aylnine That is a good

@Aylnine

That is a good point. We should only consider post-update lockboxes unless we get confirmed reports of old lockboxes containing shadow keys. I have been wondering for a while now if Lockbox content is determined at the time the player acquires it in the clockworks or if the contents is randomly determined at the time of opening the Lockbox? No idea. That is a funny thought though. If it is determined when the box is acquired then players that were hording boxes for accessories could be selling them off at the AH to people in search of Shadow keys. Some of the horror stories we have been hearing might be from rage-opening pre-release lockboxes that have zero chance of containing Shadow keys...

Really hope that the contents is generated at the time of opening, but who knows.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 13:29

Khamsin

"I'm trying to see if my

"I'm trying to see if my theory of old boxes containing ONLY accessories is true and if so, could explain why people are not getting a fair ratio of key to box"

I honestly wondered that too. All my old boxes were "old", I opened about 19 of them.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:03

Happyapathy

catastrophe?

if that were true then OOO really will have a hard time defending themselves against a CE refund to people, that will be a mess worse then it already is now

that could actually ruin the company even if it were a mistaken oversight cause it literally turns this whole release into an illegal scam making people pay for something they never had a chance of getting.

To be honest, even if this course of action isn't, if I were OOO and this turned out to be true I would rather VERY quickly give in to the demands that people have been making for the past few days and satisfy the masses instead of letting them find out an ugly truth and sinking the whole company in accusations of criminal fraud.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:07

Bopp

illegal scam?!

Happyapathy, the new update is an "illegal scam"?! Come now.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:08

Happyapathy

i'm just saying it could

i'm just saying it could simply be a programming oversight not to include shadow keys in pre-release lockboxes and only in ones found after the release considering how most of the boxes been opened are probably ones people have been holding onto from before the release, I don't know how their code works of course but I do know enough code myself to know its possible.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:11

Bluescreenofdeath

Ok people lets rant in the

Ok people lets rant in the rant threads (there are plenty to choose from) and save this one for data (of which there is very little so far).

However the lockbox content is determined I don't think the decision was driven by malice.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:11

Happyapathy

its not a rant, its just a

its not a rant, its just a fact i'd like to point out, im not accusing them of been criminals just possibly making a very nasty mistake

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:11

#10

Bopp

oh, I see what you're saying

Happyapathy, I understand now that you were talking about the possible distinction between old and new lockboxes, and not the update in general. I doubt it's criminal in any event, but I agree with you that they should clarify whether the old lockboxes can possibly contain shadow keys.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:12

#11

Happyapathy

as i said if it turns out its

as i said if it turns out its true they have a big mess on their hands

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:17

#12

Schwarze

I doubt the loot potential is

I doubt the loot potential is based on the box. I'd put my money on the unlocking of a box launching a server-based randomizer that selects the prize to hand to you. I find the idea of pre and post patch boxes silly.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:52

#13

Bluescreenofdeath

There is no way you could no

[rant redacted by BSOD]

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:36

#14

Boswick

Developer

An iron lockbox is an iron lockbox is an iron lockbox.

The content of a lockbox is determined upon opening it.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:42

#15

Aylnine

Schwarze, that is exactly why

Schwarze, that is exactly why I'm curious to see the results of old vs new boxes. I'm not discounting the possibility that the loot is randomized upon opening, but it would also be more helpful for many to know if the loot is indeed tied to the box upon acquiring.

Edit: I was making my reply right before Boswick posted -- well then, good to know =)

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:42

#16

Bluescreenofdeath

Good to know. Thanks

Good to know.

Thanks Boswick.

I guess I need to ask if this is all your fault? Joking, I haven't really even been around long enough to really get that joke.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:47

#17

Eltia

@Boswick

Is the probability of shadow key computed on the server or on the client?

Is the number of shadow key in circulation one of the parameters in determining if a box would result in a shadow key or not? i.e. is the shadow key distribution curve constants, or it can be affected by the state of the server.

My theory is that if it is the latter (shadow key distribution could be skewed by number of shadow key in circulation), then it makes sense why people are kept getting lemons (accessories) when opening lockboxes since the patch. (Because everyone is rushing to open boxes and not enough shadow keys are being used. As a result, the already fat tailed distribution becomes even fatter.)

I just want to find out what would be the best (or worst) time to open lockboxes. Thank you for your time.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:49

#18

Bluescreenofdeath

It would have to be server

It would have to be server side. If client side massive hacking would be a certainty.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:04

#19

Riodaisho

Obviously it's Boswick's

Obviously it's Boswick's fault, but we still love him for this.

We have a 1/19 ratio in our guild currently.

Edit: I miss the nonsensical chatter on the Haven roofs while surfing in /sit. *Just got nostalgia'd*

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:02

#20

Jygantic-Forum

Have no idea how many I

Have no idea how many I actually opened..

but spent 22K CE on boxes

got 2 shadow keys

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:28

#21

Happyapathy

good to know this isn't all

good to know this isn't all happening due to a mistake, as maddening as it all is.

Any chance the devs could just post the actual percentage chances are for boxes instead of making players find out for themselves?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:29

#22

Bluescreenofdeath

22k CE on opening them or

22k CE on opening them or buying them and opening them?

My math above is only counting opening cost. If you spent 22k CE on opening lockboxes then you either opened 29 boxes (if you spent 21,750 CE) or 30 boxes (if you spent 22,500 CE).

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:54

#23

Bluescreenofdeath

@ HappyapathyIn another

@ Happyapathy

In another thread Nick already said that they would not publish drop rates.

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/30004#comment-178302

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 15:55

#24

Agrimony

Person is boswick/marketing

Person is boswick/marketing team/OOO/lone gremlin

http://oi55.tinypic.com/2q172j7.jpg

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 16:07

#25

Moogzor

If only this were a

If only this were a mistake.

The reality is really depressing, what a shameless money grab

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 16:08

#26

Zikey

No wonder why they will keep

No wonder why they will keep doing such expensive/lottery content as long as some of you spend that much in it...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 16:23

#27

Anonthefelon

8 boxes. 0 keys Best item?

8 boxes.
0 keys
Best item? Drab Headband.

A little aggravated I wasn't even able to make back the CR or CE used to open 1 box...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 16:30

#28

Nodocchi

You people make it sound like

You people make it sound like you wouldn't make a shameless money grab if the opportunity arose for you.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 17:21

#29

Feight

Lockboxes: 11 Shadow Keys:

Lockboxes: 11
Shadow Keys: 0
% Keys: 0%
CE cost of Keys: 8,250 CE

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 17:48

#30

Tantarian

Yay

For once, Boswick saves the day!

I would like to ask if you people can post what accessories you get out of the boxes.
We might not get accurate data on keys, but we could sure have some data on accessory chances since we are unboxing.

Boxes:1
Keys: 0
Ghostly Aura: 1

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:05

#31

Bluescreenofdeath

I really hope there some

I really hope there some sampling bias going on here... (not that I want bias, its just the numbers are kinda bleak so far)

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:14

#32

Crazywave

i had...

i had 20 iron boxes and i open all of the boxes and 0 key
This is all Horse Cr@p

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:23

#33

Nighty-Mx

Boxes: 7 Shadow keys: 0 Regal

Boxes: 7

Shadow keys: 0
Regal Com Unit : 1
Cool headband : 2
Fancy mounted display helm : 1
Regal Vertical vents (cat ears): 1
Fancy Belly Barrel: 1
toasty spike mowhawk: 1

CE cost of Keys: 5250

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:29

#34

Marqui

I've only opened two boxes.

I've only opened two boxes. Not enough for a personal quota, but as a total average it might do something.
Two lockboxes:
#1 - Drab maid headband
#2 - Regal Canteen

-----
And, as a separate note on the anger towards opening Lockboxes and not getting keys:

If the drop rate is low, then you will need to open more lockboxes, and if you open more lockboxes, then you use more CE.
You aren't getting keys, yet you continue to open boxes.
An insane amount of boxes.

This is the equivalent of:
"OOO! LOWER THE DROP RATE OF KEYS I WANT ONE NAGNAGNAG"
and then proceeding to take out your wallet and pelt OOO with money.

As long as players open boxes like this looking for keys, OOO won't decrease the price of looking, because it would mean less money.
(but that's just my two cents on the matter)

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:42

#35

Wuvvums

None of you guys would

None of you guys would believe it but my boyfriend opened his first lock box since the update and got one.

He didn't even want it so he auctioned it off and got 181,000 crowns :v

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:14

#36

Algol-Sixty

I doubt that the responses

I doubt that the responses here are going to be an unbiased sample. Given the current mood of players, a hard luck "I opened 2983 lockboxes and didn't get a key!" is going to be much more likely to be mentioned here, while someone saying "gee, I'm getting one key per 5 lockboxes, I now have 10 keys" will likely get nasty comments and lots of spam.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:29

#37

Kirnan

New Tally

As of now, since the OP is not updating, the count is 164 boxes, 4 keys.

This gives us 2.44% as of this date. Not a good percentage.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:32

#38

Munya

lol

shadow keys go for way more than 181,000crs sadly
12 boxes, 1 shadow key

9000ce

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:46

#39

Happyapathy

maybe we should just stop

maybe we should just stop buying keys for a while and paying OOO for this travesty, reading these posts feels kinda hypocritical...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:54

#40

Bluescreenofdeath

@ Kirnan*scraches head* Your

@ Kirnan

*scratches head* Your math seems a bit off. As of post #34 we had 131 lockboxes and 1 key. Plus 2 from Marqui and 1 key from Wuvvums' boyfriend bring the total as of your post to 133 tries, 2 keys, 1.50%.

First post updated to #39.

ps- please excuse me if I stop updated so that I can play a while...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:54

#41

Happyapathy

ah man, that 2.44% made me so

ah man, that 2.44% made me so much more hopeful then your 1.50% chance

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 20:57

#42

Bluescreenofdeath

Also, I started this to

Also, I started this to gather data. Not protest or rant and I am not encouraging other to go open boxes to get numbers. I just want to hear about the ones that have already been popped. I have not opened a single lockbox and have no immediate plans to do so.

Current is 2%

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 21:04

#43

Jade-Rabbit

Boxes: 1 Shadow keys: 0 Heavy

Boxes: 1

Shadow keys: 0
Heavy Com Unit : 1

aka don't waist your money. Well Seeing Nick won't release the numbers we will make are own and clearly this is some hardcore BS. btw I wasted a lot of money when the accessories. $60 down a drain and not a single tail, scarf, or those angle wing things. This is the reason why I didn't buy CE for the shadow keys and seeing I would have to sell my kidney+ 1 arm + both my legs to even get one OOO and Sega can kiss my bunnies fluffy butt(I will make sure her sent glands are extra stinky that day). I need my Kidney thank you very much. I spent money on this game because I supported it when I could have easily supported myself if it didn't involve mass key buying.SK won't get another penny from me unless the they release the core or something and it doesn't involve this silly system >.>

tl;dr
Don't pay real money for CE. Lets play the waiting game : D

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 21:07

#44

Anonthefelon

2% is not acceptable, a 2%

2% is not acceptable, a 2% drop rate for $2.50 is not a good bet.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 22:05

#45

Giannii

yeah 0 boxes 0 shadow keys

yeah 0 boxes 0 shadow keys :)

It costs around 750ce per try. 145 boxes seems a low sample for the percentage, so people that have opened, post, as always I suggest not to open new boxes :P

Now assuming that percentage is close to the real one, with 750ce average cost per try, and a minimum average return of 10k crowns for the worse accessories (minus ah fees 9k), at 61 crowns per ce, that means you lose 602ce per try at worst. If you get great accessories that get sold at a good price, cool.

These "worst" accessories would be worth 148ce and have a weight of 1. To get a shadow key you need to open 49 lockboxes on average (rounded up), which means you would have to start with an investment of 36750ce and that isnt 99% guarantee of getting one. 48 of those should be accessories and you'd get back at least 7104ce after going through the trouble of selling them all, if the market doesnt plummet more while you try to get rid of the hot potato. Also a key would be worth about 49 accessories, so its minimum price would be: 49*148=7252, actual price dictated by market.

At least 7kce to try to access the alchemy machine if you let others play the lottery. Lots and lots of money if you attempt to do it yourself (after all you also need one for every boss, and actually one for every piece of gear).

Given the price of the key, it becomes okay to have an impossible level where you will die a lot too (speaking of a common player, those you have seen that die quickly and keep reviving with energy to your amazement), and pay up to 1k revives (if you were bad or laggy but still smart to play the revives with intelligence, by the time you hit 1k revives you will have spent 9080 energy on revives and had 8 party wipes, still okay for the price of a key, for 7 party wipes it will cost less than the minimum I have listed: 5080ce on revives).

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 22:34

#46

Invincibility

Not so happy...

I have to say: these past new updates have been kind of a ripoff. 750 CE for a 1.5% chance of something you wanted (Shadow Key). the rest if for some accessory that has no stats what-so-ever, making it pretty much meaningless. its not like it's a bomb head mask or something! if you DO get the key, you will probably waste thousands of CE and not get anything out of the trip. OOO is getting a little bit cheap right now in my opinion.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 22:34

#47

Delvro

I wouldn't trust that the

I wouldn't trust that the rate is 2% just yet. This is definitely not a simple random sample, since many people just won't come here and post unless they get a string of bad luck and want to rant about it.

Don't get me wrong, the drop rate sure seems low, just that we don't have the evidence to say that it's 2% low just yet.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 22:43

#48

Tawksick

0 Boxes. 1 Key. <3 Facebook

0 Boxes.
1 Key.

<3 Facebook

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 23:04

#49

Kupoo

One Box

Opened a single (1) box, didn't get a key.

I did get a Regal Bandolier though, which is nice, and I wasn't really hoping for a key anyway - call it curiosity.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 22:56

#50

Fehzor

Hoo ray for convenience sampling.

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Post # of Boxes opened vs # of Shadow Keys obtained (3.54%)