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Triple Max Vog Cub Cap Giveaway

330 replies [Last post]
Sun, 12/23/2012 - 22:10
#251
Psychodestroyer's picture
Psychodestroyer

"Not the first time I've heard that."

I heard it from my economics teacher three years ago. Only other times I've heard it is when I'm saying it >.>

"for 200 is would be about .5% chance to win a prize. 1.5% chance added up."

Either my math is really, really rusty or I'm missing something here. That statement implies you're more likely to win all three prizes than to win just one. Aren't cumulative successes multiplied?

1/3 chance in success, 3 draws.

Chance of just 1 win: 1/3
Chance of two consecutive wins: 1/3 x 1/3= 1/9
Chance of three consecutive wins: 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3= 1/27

The chances off a single success don't change, but considering each new draw is then pretty much the same draw done over, you'd have to have won the first to get the second 'in a row', hence the multiplication.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 22:20
#252
Wodanct's picture
Wodanct

You are right. I never do accumulations in drawings since I like knowing the raw percents instead. I'm just discussing this with someone else and they told me that 200 would be 1.5% chance accumulated. I personally just like seeing 1/200 as .5% chance each time over anything else.

Though yes you are correct. Made me remember years ago I tried to figure out the actual chances of winning a lottery on a game and thats how I remember doing it with multipliers.

Alright well it was fun talking with you.. I have to go to some co-op games with friends now. Thanks for the discussion.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 22:23
#253
Battlee's picture
Battlee
.....

Battlee

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 22:48
#254
Rabeet-Ahsan's picture
Rabeet-Ahsan
You guys do know that

You guys do know that calculating the probabilities isn't really useful as the draw isn't done by a computer progran but a human so he won't really give a damn about the probability.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 23:06
#255
Psychodestroyer's picture
Psychodestroyer

@Rabeet-Ahsan: Duh, it's just so people can calculate their odds of success, for whatever reason they're doing it for. And you seem to miss the fact that probability exists regardless of who or what does the choosing. A 1/8 probability will always be a 1/8 probability, no matter who's hand does the picking.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 23:31
#256
Msaad's picture
Msaad
There must be a limit to the no. of people!

Too many people! 250+ people!
How in the world are you going to make this raffle?

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 23:44
#257
Shadownox's picture
Shadownox
Honk honk. Make way for the dead bunny.

So, uh...

When are ya gonna stop letting peeps sign up, and actually do the lottery? :p

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 04:55
#258
Dendios's picture
Dendios
@Psycho & Wodnact : Wait a

@Psycho & Wodnact :

Wait a minute....I think I made alot of mistakes ( My Probability Lessons are forgotten and rusty, I am studying Postulates currently, so don't blame me D: )

But I have one question, would it be correct if I did like this :

1 ) For first prize, the probability of winning a prize from the 3 of them, is 3/200 ~ 1.5%

2 ) For the two next prizes the probability of winning one of them is 2/200 ~ 1% "Given that a person can win the 3 prizes without limitations."

3 ) For the last prize it would be easy, 1/200 ~ 0.5%

Is it correct like this ? I really forgot how did they work, and forgive me if you both explained how and I didn't understand, in the end I am not an English Speaker, and I study Mathematics in my native language.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 06:10
#259
Artistbma's picture
Artistbma
Hmm. Some people have put

Hmm. Some people have put their alts on here so they have a higher chance of winning. /not fair

D:

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 07:11
#260
Rabeet-Ahsan's picture
Rabeet-Ahsan
@Psycho

Although probability is every where but to rely on it for a decesions is mostly done by computer program as they don't think outside their set parameters as for humans they don't have a parameter so probability goes out the window.
@Xxdraganeel After the first prize is given that guy will be out of the total people e.g 200 then 199 for the second prize and 198 for the third prize.So to put it easily 3/200,2/199 and 1/198 and then take their averages meaning take the sum then divide by the # of value added.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 07:53
#261
Dasparian
Happy Holidays IGN: Dasparian

Happy Holidays

IGN: Dasparian

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 10:17
#262
Severage's picture
Severage
@Shadownox:

Says in the OP Dec. 25th - Christmas Day.

@Rabeet:

How do you know he won't use a computer? It'd be easy to assign everyone a number and use a RNG to draw.

~Sev

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 10:29
#263
Dhmorgousbord's picture
Dhmorgousbord
Cytrixx

Cytrixx

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 10:29
#264
Logicia's picture
Logicia
IGN is

Logicia

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:02
#265
Alisar's picture
Alisar
Probability Lesson!

Also, entering: IGN: Alisar

The probability of winning one of the three:

Assuming there's 200 people, 3 presents to be given away.

If each person can only win once, then there's a 3/200 = 1.5% chance of winning.

If each person can win more than once it becomes a bit more complicated.
For each present you have a 1/200 chance of winning and a 199/200 chance of losing.
The chance of losing all three presents is (199/200) x (199/200) x (199/200) = ~0.985075
Since you have a 98.5075% chance of not getting any, that means you have a 1.4925% chance of getting at least one. Not a big difference from the other number.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:06
#266
Vesperaldus's picture
Vesperaldus
My IGN is Hollows.

My IGN is Hollows.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:13
#267
Vesperaldus's picture
Vesperaldus
Oh hi there

double post.

Woops.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:21
#268
Hollows's picture
Hollows
My IGN

=
Passage

free stuff yay :D

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:33
#269
Arythroprax's picture
Arythroprax
for the giveaway

IGN: Arythroprax

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 11:47
#270
Shiroikaze's picture
Shiroikaze
yar

IGN: Shiroikaze

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 12:19
#271
Theirillusion's picture
Theirillusion
Post #271

IGN: Theirillusion

Merry christmas forum readers :)

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 12:20
#272
Theirillusion's picture
Theirillusion
Post #272

IGN: Theirillusion

Merry christmas forum readers :)

Edit: OMG 2x post, my first time.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 14:05
#273
Coldness's picture
Coldness
IGN: Coldness Merry Christmas

IGN: Coldness

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 14:52
#274
Ellemby's picture
Ellemby
hello ign: ellemby

hello

ign: ellemby

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 14:57
#275
Emperor-Shawarma's picture
Emperor-Shawarma
iseewutuguysdoingthar

All these names I havent heard of or seen in Haven before until right now. Hmmmm....

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 15:50
#276
Psychodestroyer's picture
Psychodestroyer

"Although probability is every where but to rely on it for a decesions is mostly done by computer program as they don't think outside their set parameters as for humans they don't have a parameter so probability goes out the window."

/facepalm

You don't get it, probability is REGARDLESS of WHATEVER is doing the job. You can't get rid of probability unless you rig the damn thing!

Example: You have 1 Blue marble, 1 Red marble, and 2 Green Marbles

You put them all in a bag.

You draw out ONE Marble at random.

The Probability of you picking either of Red or Blue is EQUAL. They have the same probability of being chosen, because they share the ratio of them : everything else.

GREENS have DOUBLE the probability of being chosen, because they have DOUBLE the ratio of them : Everything else.

YES in one draw, you can get a Red. YES in a repeat of this test, you could get a Blue. But you are MORE LIKELY to get a GREEN than either.

Probability is INDEPENDENT of the method. I could get a robot to do it, I could use a shovel to pick them out, I could get my next door neighbor's granddaughter to do it; It doesn't MATTER. Probability remains, and it remains CONSTANT. Relevance isn't even an issue.

You can get a gun and 20 bullets and fire at different elevations at the target. If you can't see the target, you have a 1/20 chance of hitting the target. You can get ALL hits, or none, or any number inbetween. Probability is a statistic. It does NOT determine an outcome.

@XxDragneel:
The probability of winning ANY of the three draws is EQUAL, PROVIDED that you may win more than once. So you have the same chance as anyone in any of the draws to win.

Technically, your probability of winning doesn't change at all in this case, because each draw is independent from all the others. At any time, your chances of any sort of success is the same as everyone else's.

Unless you can only win once, in which case your chances drop to zero the moment you win. The chances of everyone else's success increase marginally then. But everyon'es chance remains equal.

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 16:25
#277
Lightplasma's picture
Lightplasma
IGN

lightplasma

so many pages...

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 17:05
#278
Mafiaso's picture
Mafiaso
ign:mafiaso thanks

ign:mafiaso

thanks

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 17:13
#279
Ivy-Von's picture
Ivy-Von
IGN: Ivy-Von

IGN: Ivy-Von

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 18:22
#280
Shelf-Life's picture
Shelf-Life
I'd Like To Join the Raffle

I'd Like To Join the Raffle :>

IGN Is Shelf-Life

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 21:14
#281
Marquito's picture
Marquito
Merry Christmas everyone!

Joining the raffle

IGN: Marquito

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 21:45
#282
Nitef's picture
Nitef
MERRY CHRISTMAS.

Good luck everyone.

IGN: Nitef

Mon, 12/24/2012 - 23:53
#283
Pwnige
O.O

Eetz no chreezmas yet!
Gimme ba stuff
Das my ign to da left

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 00:47
#284
Jwik
asivh valiance!!! . _.

ign mcnchz

i think im 2 late QQ

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 03:33
#285
Nottheanswer's picture
Nottheanswer
~

IGN is Nottheanswer.

Merry Christmas to all!

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 03:36
#286
Zaffy-Laffy's picture
Zaffy-Laffy
Zaffy is Laffy

When it comes to free stuff, people always get to it.

Ign : Sdkfzafk

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 03:44
#287
Thunderbog's picture
Thunderbog
@Nottheanswer

The IGN is not the answer.

pun intended

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 06:11
#288
Agentz's picture
Agentz
Just hoping I'm not too late!

IGN: Agentz

(sorry if im late, thought i may as well try)

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 10:59
#289
Bluearceus's picture
Bluearceus
MERRY CHRISTMAS!

YAY! Time to go eat food and... uh...yeah.

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 02:20
#290
Msaad's picture
Msaad
Uhh

Who won?

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 05:54
#291
Aretii's picture
Aretii
who won ... today is already

who won ... today is already the 26th!!!

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 10:16
#292
Canozo's picture
Canozo
God of trolling

NO ONE WON :D

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 15:12
#293
Bluearceus's picture
Bluearceus
LOL

Darn... Just as I suspected.

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 17:12
#294
Theirillusion's picture
Theirillusion
Not that anyone really put

Not that anyone really put much effort into writing their IGNs. Would be failed not to give away now.

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 18:15
#295
Mzculet's picture
Mzculet
Post 258

Post 258

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/65009?page=5

Now who created this thread? ;)

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 22:34
#296
Vesperaldus's picture
Vesperaldus
Oh and look, apparently he

Oh and look, apparently he switched knights for the forums. He formerly posted on Laylla's thread as Mtdals.

It seems as if he planned this thread maybe?
Oh so innocent from his OP!

Are you Laylla's alt, Mtdals or whoever you are now?

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 23:49
#297
Mzculet's picture
Mzculet
Laylla has been a very very

Laylla has been a very very bad girl in this community trolling people around :>
I wouldn't be surprised If tis is her second troll tread.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 04:40
#298
Rabeet-Ahsan's picture
Rabeet-Ahsan
@Psycho

Your not getting what i am saying a computer is bound to probability while humans are not especially in this situation where the person giving the prizes can chose to neglect that probability.
Now i know that probability is gonna be useful but as there are almost 300 people applying the chance are thin so thats why i said there is no use and no one person is gonna win again,Right?So thd probability for the second guy increases but also you calculated are also not that much.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 20:06
#299
Psychodestroyer's picture
Psychodestroyer

"Your not getting what i am saying a computer is bound to probability while humans are not especially in this situation where the person giving the prizes can chose to neglect that probability."

No, I GET what you're saying! YOU don't get it! EVERYTHING is bound by probability. whether you like it or not. Absolute certainties are a 100% probability, while anything else is something lower. People can't just disregard probability without rigging it for victory.

Computers use probability to calculate all possible outcomes. Humans live that probability.

A dice has a 1/6 chance of landing on any one of it's different faces. Unless you change the shape or weight distribution of the dice, that probability will remain the SAME. If you rolled it 6 times, you could end up having rolled 6 six times, or maybe three 5s and three 2s; it doesn't matter, the probability for each side is equal, and you can't change that without changing the factors.

Humans don't disregard probability. CAN'T, if the situation has a random variable. The only way they can 'disregard' that probability is if they've already chosen someone to win, because then it's no longer random.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 20:21
#300
Grittle's picture
Grittle
Well looks like the forum got

Well looks like the forum got fooled by another "Giveaway"
Man this Forum likes the smell of Fools gold...

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