Here's a bunch of random thoughts of mine from reading posts in this topic over the past few days.

I remember reading that in most F2P games, it ends up being that approximately 10% of the people who start an account spend money, and 10% of those people spend about 90% of the money that the company receives. I can totally see the practice of not making items super rare would make the people who invest heavily in these items want to leave, which would probably cut out some of these big spenders and make SK lose money.

But most F2P games follow the model of making some items super rare and expensive. Is that the only sustainable way to keep a f2p game alive? I'd really like some first hand data of the income that these kinds of games make... But I probably never will, along with most of the people here. So time for more speculation woo

I can't imagine spending thousands, or even hundreds of a f2p game. I think I'm close to 60 dollars or something, which factors in greatly when I think about spending more money. That said, I can see more people willing to buy a rare costume for 50 dollars than a really rare costume for hundreds of dollars.

What I find really amusing about sk is how costumes bind when you wear it. You have to choose right from the start if you're getting something to sell or getting something to wear. So I can see why the people who have items for the purpose of selling get pissed off when the value of their items drops without warning. But what is the happiness of those who play for profit compared to the happiness of those who are playing and want new shiny things? Does the net happiness of the game increase when more people feel like they have access to super cool costumes? Or do they have to pander to the 1% who gives them so much money? If they haven't started to yet, will they be forced to soon?

...

Uh... as for the actual topic and OP, I agree with the four end points of the post, with the exception of how much of an impact the first entire set of stuff you posted was. If an item was worth 60k ce, and it sold to someone else for 80k ce, then ooo makes 20k ce, through a roundabout way n whatnot, but thats true enough. But if they release a second one, and it lowers the price to 40k ce, then ooo makes 40k ce instead, doubling immediate profit. Of course, its not a very good example, since there are many more factors n crap, but the highest profit definitely isn't from lowest supply, at least in general economic terms.

But we're not in general economics. We're in a f2p game. Where people can throw thousands of dollars into a game in attempts to make even more money back out at some point. I'm not one of the big spenders by an enormous margin. Nor do I ever want first hand experience of it.

Which leads me to an important question for you, chris. Why are you still buying promotional packs? You have over 200k ce. Why do you need more?

EDIT: oh yea, I forgot to make a point. Neodasus actually bolded a point I wanted to make.

Chris wrote: "I hope you all enjoyed the read...Let me know if you find any problems with what I have said, feel free to post them here."

I do have a couple of problems, and I'm curious if they can be clarified.

1. In your first post you wrote - "Basically, the head of marketing thought..." - How do you know what the Head of Marketing thought? Or is this speculation?
2. Again in the first post, you wrote - "Three Rings actually LOST money" - Do you know this for a fact? If so, who told you?
3. In post #34, you wrote - "Three rings started as a small 7 man dev team ". - On Wikipedia, the page for Three Rings Design reads, "Three Rings Design, Inc. is an online game developer that was founded on March 30, 2001 by Daniel James and Michael Bayne." - I'm wondering where the number 7 came from, and who they might be.

I've been a strong supporter of Three Rings for the past 8 years. If you are going to throw out ideas like this, supporting arguments must be iron-clad.

CE sinks keep the CE<->USD market going, primarily to the benefit of P2P players (and OOO, since it directly fills their wallets). Crown sinks keep the CE<->CR market going, primarily to the benefit of F2P players. Player to player trading, regardless of what currency it's in, benefits OOO very little from a revenue standpoint as it does not consume CE.

In response to my criticism, Chris posted this:

"Loest, all CE ever traded has to be bought. If an item is traded for 20k more CE than it would have been that means 20k more CE had to have been bought. This is a very simple principle."

While the first part is correct (all CE ever traded has to be bought) the second part does not follow from it.

It is not the case that if an item is traded for 20k CE more than it would have been otherwise, that 20k more CE has been bought than would have been bought otherwise. There's really no reason, in fact, to think that that 20k extra CE wouldn't have still been purchased and simply used for something else, instead. Also remember that the extra 20k CE would go to another player, which may well reduce the amount of CE that player buys in the future.

Again, what matters here is how much CE is purchased for the explicit purpose of buying hats from other players, compared to the amount of CE that isn't purchased by those other players because they got a lot of CE for selling their hats. I don't doubt that OOO makes some money from player-to-player hat sales, but, again, the amount that OOO makes cannot be accurately described in the manner you're trying to describe it. A sale for 100,000CE does not necessarily mean that OOO has sold 50,000 more CE than if the same sale had been made for only 50,000 CE. That's just not how it works.

Read what I wrote again, Chris. You clearly do not have a sound grasp of the economic mechanisms involved, here.

"Loest please stop trolling this thread."

Do you always Accuse anyone who doesn't Agree with you as a Troll?

In one case 50k more ce is being used, it's not being transferred, it's being burned and no longer exists in the game as currency.

WUT? this only happpens if the item is brought from vendor or featrued auctions... and that dosent happens 'cause featured and vendors work in cr mostly
if it is traded from one player to another the Ce is still on the market. unless it gets all used on crafting or boost purchases. so no, feat. auctions is a good marqueting strategy.

I've never enjoyed these kinds of "market maker" people in mmos. This is a game, why can't you enjoy it the way the devs made it, instead of trying to profit off of other people in these ridiculous ways. Money based trolls, really, making the game less enjoyable for the average user...

Maybe I should ask everyone else here something. What do you think someone like this does when they finally feel as if they've made as much profit as possible, and decide to go to another budding mmo to seek more profits? Just get up and leave? That would make the time spent amassing their riches amount to nothing. Do they give their wealth away? Hah, no, that's even worse! And they certainly can't trade with other people in game for something else in game; the items in this game no longer mean anything to them...

Has never paid a single penny into the game and has a sexy white chap :3

Seller is free to charge whatever they want on limited supply items. But in the end, it is up to the buyers who fork out whatever amount that the economy can sustain.

So even OOO listens to what Chris said and made limited items an one time deal. In the end, the deciding factor is still on the buyer side. Should a buyer spend over 10k CE on a costume or accessory? Maybe, because at that point CE pricing may have significantly depreciated. e.g. OOO has invented a new currency (Prestige maybe?) that gives access to more valuable items.

I urge people (including the economical planner in OOO) to look up what caused the 2007 Subprime mortgage and then 2008 Housing Bubble crash. It all began with people given a "promise" (the financial term is a Call option) that is (relatively) free and has (theoretically) unlimited upside profits. What is the "logical" thing to do? People keep pushing the prices higher and higher, so they can maximize their upside profits. In the end, the market crashed because the prices were getting so high that nobody is going to pay for that ridiculous price for a property.

Reflecting on what Chris said. The costumes and accessories bundled with energy packs are like houses. The seemingly "limited" nature of these items give the buyers of these energy packs the illusion that if they safe keep it over time, their values have to appreciate (due to limited supply, like oil) and furthermore, the same group of people will be free to charge whatever they want. If this sounds familiar, you are probably right (it is a very cheap Call option in disguise). One possible result is that the market for these limited circulation costume / accessory will crash (reflecting what happened in 2008). And people like Chris who invested heavily in these items will suffer the most losses.

What OOO could do to prevent these market bubbles? Limit the upside profit and charge a heavier premium on these Call option. The first objective can be accomplished by periodically re-issuing special costumes / accessories, thus shattering the illusion that these digital items are "limited". The second objective can be accomplished by imposing a stricter limit on large value trading. (This is probably already in effect, OOO may need to figure out some clever tweaks to the system to prevent loopholes.)

In summary, do not create or buy into market bubbles. They are always tempting at first. But when the bubbles burst, everybody gets hurt. OOO should look into this problem very seriously because bad economy is worse than WMD -- what you don't see can harm you.

I'll try to make my post with as little spite as possible.

I was an active OOO player in Puzzle Pirates in...what was that, 2006? 2005? I spent like 10 bucks, but my wife spent over 50 at least. Puzzle Pirates was FILLED with players who'd spent plenty of doubloons....and this was when it was mainly f2p with a lot of "hat" features with ships, housing design features, etc. I think they were doing pretty well, since their little design team already had started on Bang Howdy and was betaing it when I stopped playing. (It was a bilging/sails run of about 6 hours that killed it for me)

This was years ago, and it's not like the shrunk any. OOO is doing FIIIINE. Now they're part of Sega, ostensibly giving them the developing and marketing power of a first-rate gaming company.

Do non-drupal forum servers have a Narcissism filter? Or maybe like a spell check...

"This line makes you look like you 1) know better than devs who have point-blank refuted you, 2) look like you think you deserve some sort of preferential treatment because you've managed to make an MMO empire with no actual real-life worth. You may consider revising or deleting."

ah see? I can't do it. I just can't be polite.

Looking back to the aftermath of the 2007-2008 market crashes. People lose jobs and homes, companies outsource to Asia and investors move capitals away from US market.

SK is but one MMO that is on the market now. When the accessories / costumes market crashes, the top percentile spenders (such as Chris) are going to take the most hit. Some of them could choose to leave the game (someone in this thread did this once but returned). The question is, when a good number of the top spending customers leave all at once, would this impact SK operation significantly? It would take time to recover as I don't believe the "Doomsday" scenario is likely. It would cause hassles to both OOO and SK gamer base for sure. And during this recovering period, some mid tier gamers may deem to promote themselves to top tier spenders too high, and would move their capitals away from SK (as a form of indefinite hiatus).

That's why I urge both the SK gamer base as well as OOO to look at this issue seriously as a preventive measure. OOO can start re-issuing these so-called "limited" costumes and accessories on a regular basis. The SK gamer base should be more conscious about what these costumes and accessories represent -- they are just one way to differentiate your characters from others. It certainly add some values to your game play experience (the social aspect of it). But beware of market bubbles and what you are really paying for.

Agreed with Demonics. Selling something for 80k CE instead of 60k CE does not guarantee that OOO has made 20k CE from it. I don't know about the rest of your argument Chris, but with this one claim you made there is nothing to dispute. You are wrong, plain and simple. If you can't see that then at this point you are just being stubborn and very unwilling to contradict what you said earlier in this thread. Just to make this clear, I'll provide you with a list of some of the possible scenarios. There is a myriad of possibilities so it's impossible to list all of them.

1. Someone is selling a black rose chapeau for 80k CE. I have 60k. I decide to sell some of my other items until I receive at least 20k more CE and buy the chapeau. (In this case I did not purchase any more CE. All that happened was some CE transferred from other players to myself. OOO made no extra profit from this transaction assuming that the players I sold my items to didn't purchase CE to buy my items.)

2. This time I have 75k CE. However I also have 305k CR. I offer the 75k as well as the CR for the chapeau, and the player agrees.

3. I have 79.6k CE. I decide to just purchase 400 more CE with CR to reach 80k.

4. I have 60k CE. I am trying to collect a bunch of dragon wings, halos, auras, and all other kinds of accessories. I calculate the estimated price of the ones I want and realize I need more CE. I purchase 20k CE from OOO. Later on, I see someone selling a black chapeau for 80k CE. I decide to just get the chapeau since it's so valuable. (Even in this case, selling the chapeau for 80k CE instead of 60k does not immediately make OOO 20k CE. The 20k CE was already bought, and I had intended to spend it on other accessories. Sure, it may indirectly cause me to purchase more CE than I would've had to if the chapeau was only 60k CE in order to buy some of the other accessories that I wanted, but this is not what you originally stated.)

1. If u quit the game then a TON of ur guidies would quit
2. you've pushed others playing the game to spend over $10,000 in the game?
Those are both lies

Dude u up ur ego each time i see ur comments. Sod off!

Binding an item bought for 80kce takes one item out of the trading economy. The 80kce is still there, just in someone else's pocket.

Chris, it feels like you're trying to argue for higher player-to-player trading prices leading to more CE in circulation and consequently more CE purchased, but I think that effect is quite weak compared to the effect of actual CE sinks, and just growing the player population.

Also, consider that just 300 people buying nothing but an elevator pass each month is more than the $10k over 6 months figure you throw out as your "personal influence". Growing SK's player base should be OOO's first priority, not catering to a few high dollar elites.

You didn't say it, thus it was not acknowledged as part of your post. Don't push it off as stupid forumers not thinking enough.

To continue on with my argument, while including the fact that the ce will be burned:

Only the lucky or the rich will have rare items. As such, only the former will have a real use for the ce to burn. The majority of the owners will be already rich players. The addition of ce they receive from selling the rare item will only be added to their already considerable store. In time, they will be used. But not at a greater rate than ce is being destroyed at the moment.

Which is the entire point of my argument. The ce being burned remains the same. Just because one item has rose in value, does not mean ce is suddenly being spent more.

The one scenario I can see it happening, is one poor player, among the T1-beginning T2 player, sells the rare item to a rich player, such as you. Rich players have no need for more ce. The new player will use the ce to upgrade their gear and play more. Only under this scenario does the ce get burned

Slightly off topic, if removing ce makes OOO more money, why not throw all your ce away for the good of the company? And while you're at it, get those higher ranked players to do the same, using your not inconsiderate influence over them.

Edit: No, i'm not getting it. Where is this ce going, if you weren't speaking of ce being used after received post trade.

When an item is bound, it loses value because you can't trade it. This value is not in the form of ce or cr you can use. The value is potential. By paying to unbind, you put value into previously "destroyed" item. You put the value back into said item. You re-created the item. The unbind cost may not match up to what the true crafting cost is, but it is the same idea.

"When somebody buys 20k energy, three rings doesn't ACTUALLY make $50 until all of that energy is burned somehow in-game."
Incorrect, the fact that the energy exists in-game, means that it is already paid for. Until it gets burned, it may affect the likelihood of OOO's next $50, but in the present, OOO has already earned the first $50.

"when a set is bound, the CE IS removed from the game."
Also mostly false. The only way you might be able to claim this, is if at a future resale (if the set had not been bound), the purchaser decided to buy CE for $ for the express purpose of paying the seller. Dragging in future sales brings in Alknighty's point, that the limited-edition accessory market is nothing but a big market bubble, with all its implications.

Nicoya makes a good point, the value generated by appreciation of limited-edition items is insignificant next to the value generated by CE sinks and attracting new players. If re-releasing 1st generation rose sets on AH in limited quantities gets a bunch of players to bite (by changing CE to crowns), and that CE is bought up by less wealthy players who use it to play or craft (very likely), the removal of CE from the economy has the same driving effect towards CE purchases. Except that this latter case is more friendly to newer, less wealthy players, which help keep interest in SK strong.

If I may give an analogy. Consider this; you have 100 $1 bills and someone else has 1 $100 dollar bill. If you trade your 100 $1 bills for the 1 $100 bill the same amount of money is still there. Now, if you get that $100 bill and rip it up that $100 bill is gone, and therefore cut the total amount of money in half.

now think of that same scenario but the 100 $1 bills are CE, the $100 bill is something like a Black Chap, and ripping it up is like binding.

But you can't spend the chaps like you would ce. Whereas you can use the 100 to convert to almost anything you want. You can't use the chaps to craft, slowly draining the chap until the "value" of it is used up and it disappears. You have to first sell it to be able to have the currenc to use.

Binding it, removing it from the collection of tradeable items, only removes the potential ce you could have gained selling it. It had a value. Worth something to sell, yes. But you can't use this value until you do sell it.

Since Chris abandoned this thread, I'll take his spot to argue with Loest.

The extra ce being used in this transaction will go to crafting/diving/unbinding/otherwise invested to make more ce. Thus, the ce being destroyed will then require another paying player to fill up the net loss in ce in the economy.

The extra ce one would receive for selling an item for higher than original price.

As in, selling something for 60k instead of 50k, means you get the extra 10k