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A small note to Three Rings to greatly increase player satisfaction AND revenue

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Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:54
#101
Loest's picture
Loest
Demonicsothe:

If I have 60kce and I buy a hat from you for 60kce, you'll burn that 60kce. If I buy the hat from you for 50kce, you'll burn that 50kce and I'll burn the 10kce I kept. It doesn't make any difference to OOO which of us destroys the CE. You burning all of it is the same, to them, as me burning some and you burning some. That 10k difference in sale price makes no difference at all to OOO unless I made up some portion of that difference by purchasing CE from OOO.

And I might do that, but I also might not. I might have already had 60kce, or I might have had 59 and had to purchase 1000 ce from OOO. OOO might make some money from our transaction, but they also might not--and if they do, there's no guarantee at all that they'll make 10000ce worth of profit.

Again, Chris's point was that the higher the sale value of Rose Items, the more money OOO will make. This is untrue. Rather, OOO, were there goal to maximize profits, would be better served by continuing to introduce Rose Items into the market, so that there will be a steady stream of sales at a value and rate that optimizes a number-of-sales / profit-per-sale curve--and a modicum of thought shows that this cannot be accomplished by refraining from ever introducing new Rose Items into the market.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:43
#102
Bert-Banana's picture
Bert-Banana
+1

Not only do I agree with your thread but I commend you for making such logical posts. I am an owner of multiple first gen regalia and items with value and if they get popped on Ah I wil be pretty upset because of the decrease in value. If OOO puts 1st gen on ah, people won't be as willing to pay 65kce for a black set and the prices would plummet.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:10
#103
Loest's picture
Loest
On the bright side...

We can be confident that OOO isn't going to let a tiny handful of greedy players dictate their policy on this issue.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:19
#104
Neodasus's picture
Neodasus
I work in securitiesIf you

I work in securities

  • If you don't know what a security is, then don't post in this thread throwing your theories around like you know what you're talking about
  • CE is basically a security, as are rare items.

    To put it SIMPLY, 100CE should be treated as something similar to a security bond. It's basically like a federal reserve note saying "This is worth X amount of Y". Rare cosmetic items along with UV items should be treated as financial instruments, given that they are converted into CE which is then worth more or less than what you paid for it at any given time.

    In my line of work, people purchase securities and instruments to add value to their portfolio, pretty simple right? It's basically paper that can represent many things such as debt and so-forth. Now, in SK it's different on many levels. For one thing, CE is used in such a variety of ways that there is no clear answer as to just how our economy revolves around it (crafting, trading unbound costume items, unbinding UV items, level clearance, enhanced loadouts?), so naturally you would have to ask yourself "How would this affect me?"

    Simple, put yourself into one of these categories.

    Oligarchy

  • They burn CE in every way possible, aside from level completion (Elevator Pass). Basically they trade unbound cosmetic items amongst themselves, further increasing in value so long as speculation remains positive. No matter what you are taught in school, always know that the market is ruled by rumors and fear (this thread and many others like it are controlling the market to a degree, even if you aren't aware of it). Human beings are human beings; if someone panics and tells you to sell low, as others follow him you will eventually do the same to keep from losing any more value. Just like in real life, when you trade anything related to a security you have to pay fees (see: UNBIND). More than any other group, the oligarchy spends the most on unbinding to trade UV-Weapons/Armor. More than any other group, you see the most CE to CR conversions within the oligarchy. It is obvious that this group burns the most CE per person, but take into account the volume of the group. If you are wondering whether you belong here, ask yourself "How much CE do I burn each day?". If you generate 2 or more CE for every 1CE you burn (whether the CE value lies in unbound weapons/armor, cosmetic items, and so forth) you belong here. What I mean by "generate" is that say for instance you have a rare cosmetic item (let's take the original Regalia sets as an example), and you spend 30kce or so to obtain it. It is likely that the value will rise over time, so long as speculation remains positive and the number of unbound sets diminishes as well. Chris has stated earlier, that more CE is generated by simply HAVING the item than anything else. The oligarchy will hoard CE just to afford it, and the cycle will continue to repeat itself so long as it remains in circulation (unbound). Simply trading amongst themselves generates enough CE and CR to keep the CR->CE conversion low enough so F2Ps can enjoy the game (this is the time when all the F2Ps that insult Chris actually take the time to write him letters of appreciation). Without the oligarchy to generate and burn great amounts of CE, the CR to CE conversion rate would be so high that F2Ps would almost never have the chance to slowly ease themselves into being paid accounts.
  • tl;dr - SK economy needs these players to keep Cr to CE prices low, so that F2Ps can continue playing and eventually become paid accounts. The release of cosmetic packs actually keep this conversion stable, so if anything to keep up with the economy SK will have to release these packs every so often to generate more CE and keep the F2Ps from quitting. OOO has enacted a failsafe to prevent this group from obtaining total control over CE prices, and that is the fact that cosmetic items that are bound can never be unbound (which is, by the way, the focal point of the thread).

    ADV P2P

  • This is where I belong in. This is the average player you will see in SK. We use elevator passes more often than not, so burning CE for level completion is considered an anomaly. We unbind only when needed, and that in itself is also an anomaly so long as we’re not selling bound UV-weapons/armor. I’d say the average advanced paid account spends at the most 20000 CE on crafting weapons and armor in a lifetime, only to reach the point where they no longer need to craft new weapons. Ragecrafting might be a possibility, but it’s not longer a viable option with the introduction of the Unique Variant merchant (I find myself converting CR to CE for this reason, but not so much that it would put me in the oligarchy). Many of the lesser items put into circulation by the oligarchy are sold to this group (ASI Medium, CTR Medium, ETC). On average I will spend at the most 3500 CE every month just because I have reached a plateau as to what I should craft, and what I need in order to keep up with other players (Keys, slots, and other things you would need each month). If this sounds anything like you, then good news: it is you. Out of the bottom three groups, this one has the highest chance of joining the oligarchy (UV rolling, purchasing an energy pack to receive a rare cosmetic item, etc.)
  • Recent Paid Accounts (Referred to as RPAs afterwards)

  • RPAs are F2Ps that have recently purchased CE. They’re on their way to become an advanced paid account. Obviously they will burn their CE through crafting more than anything else, until they reach a “crafting-plateu”. If you are buying energy with real money to get your first set of Vog, Skolver or Skelly Jelly, you belong here. To keep them on the track to becoming advanced members, they would need some incentive aside from purchasing CE simply to craft and eventually plateau (cosmetic packs!).
  • F2P

  • This is the runt of the litter and obviously the bottom-feeder of the 4. They will feeds off the scraps of the other three, basically at the will of CR to CE conversion. Most likely the frustration of keeping up with the CE market will push them into buying an elevator pass and perhaps a 9.95 energy pack to avoid being stuck in tier 2 for four months. These are the people you see making those “POKEY STICKS SHOULD BE BANNED” threads.
  • OOO has all the vital statistics to keep these groups in check. Anyone with half their brain tied behind their back would see that as a countermeasure, OOO uses the Auction House to release cosmetic items and prevent hyperinflation. As stated earlier, if you have a rare cosmetic item (as in, limited-edition and there are only so few of them actually unbound) in your inventory and you DO NOT SELL IT, so long as speculation remains positive and no more are added into circulation the value will rise.

    POINT OF THE THREAD: What Chris is saying is that by removing limited-edition items from the Auction House, just the sheer existence of the item generates enough CE to keep the conversion at a fair rate and will continue to make OOO money so long as it remains in circulation (unbound). This is a valid suggestion, especially for the F2Ps that basically survive off the fecal matter of the oligarchy.

    However, it is a catch 22.

    To keep up with the rising prices of these unbound cosmetic items, more will have to be released and eventually said limited-edition items will have to be re-introduced through the Auction House as a CROWN SINK. I am both against yet in favor of what Chris is suggesting (very difficult to say, because I believe this thread can ultimately make or break the future of SK).

    tl;dr SK economy 101, know your place, know what needs to be done

    Don’t be hating on Chris, it’s because of players like him that you’re still playing at all.

    I hope this clears things up for those who still miss the point. I tried to make it as simple as I could because SK economy basically runs on derivatives and it would be difficult to understand if you don't know what one is.

    edit: Also I'm a bit torn as to why the thread was made in the first place. I can see why it would have been brought up, as the oligarchy would essentially be losing CE every day because of such featured auctions, but that was the intention. Why make the thread for anything else other than greed? Of course without the greed of the oligarchy, you wouldn't even have a fair CR->CE conversion rate to begin with. Just think about what I said and how Chris's suggestion would affect you in the future, and whether or not you would support it.

    OOO would obviously gain from his suggestion, but it is hard to say given the fact that it might make potential paid accounts quit the game due to conversion rates (or it might be the opposite and actually force them into buying CE to keep up with players, hence why introducing SK to steam was such a great idea)

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:24
    #105
    Tengu's picture
    Tengu
    @snarkey

    They shouldn't be sold for 75kce in the first place. Granted, it's what the market will bear, but I think the majority of the posters in this thread (me definitely included) are a little insulted that Chris got all up in knots over an assumed situation about non-gameplay related profiteering.

    okay, not "a little insulted". very very insulted. AH and CE profiteers bug me, and they're the ones who shout down OOO auctions due to so-called unfairness, not to mention pulling sacred cow arguments. "It would ruin the game if OOO put in Groundbreaker and 1st gens because people won't know who the old players are".

    Lies.

    See, here's the problem in this thread, and by and large the game. Right now, the "haves" are whining about the "have-nots" having possible access to their cash cows. This is so much a microcosm of what's happening in every country in the world. When the whining doesn't work, they start threatening and pouting, and trying to throw their weight around. I don't care about the specifics of their point, or even the validity of it in a technobabble-jargon economical standpoint; all I know is that, much like in real life, the Proles are getting the end of the stick that was someplace very unpleasant.

    Now, the nice thing is that, unlike real life, OOO has carte blanche ability to immediately cull out the issues decisively, unlike 18th century France, or 5th century Rome, or 21st century America (possibly O.o). Nobody's gonna try and behead Chris, or by extension me because I roll in a Chapeau and Ice Queen armor. The thing is that there's just...no point to revolt.

    The things that Chris et al market in is luxury for the in-game bourgeoisie so they can look spiffy and kill people in LD very fast with their pokey sticks. Their goings-on really doesn't contribute to t1-t2-early t3 life, or to people grinding their 1st or 2nd 5*s. What is hateful about the whole process is that somehow they think it does to the point of posting threads like this, lashing out at what is in essence Gods of this realm. It's hubris in the extreme, and quite frankly, very sad.

    I'm not mad at the idea of not being able to access 1st edition Chapeaus. I'm mad at a PLAYER assuming that they have the sort of clout as to push around Devs.

    Personally? I can't be hired at OOO. I would be a cruel, Old-World god, and I would come down like a bolt of lightning on behavior like this.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:33
    #106
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    To clear up misconceptions,

    To clear up misconceptions, players like Chris does not support the f2p. $500 is indeed a tidy sum, but in no way able to keep thousands of players free and enjoying the game. Especially when there are people that have spent thousands, according to Chris. The ce that Chris has obtained outside of 500 dollars or so worth, all came from other paying players.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:43
    #107
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Another error...

    Neodasus, you write:

    "What Chris is saying is that by removing limited-edition items from the Auction House, just the sheer existence of the item generates enough CE to keep the conversion at a fair rate and will continue to make OOO money so long as it remains in circulation (unbound). This is a valid suggestion, especially for the F2Ps that basically survive off the fecal matter of the oligarchy."

    This is certainly true. So long as the hat both remains in circulation and unbound, it generates profit for OOO. But to what extent does this happen? who buys a hat from another player and fails to equip it? Even if it happens occasionally, it can't possibly be the norm.

    The hats don't stay unbound an in circulation. That's not a reasonable expectation. Rather, one should expect each hat to not circulate--to, instead, sit in the possession of a single player until it is sold and bound.

    Again, the sale of a hat has the potential to generate profit for OOO--there's no guarantee, but the potential exists. However, you should not expect a hat to float around being sold multiple times. Indeed, since the expectation should be that each hat will be sold approximately once, it remains the case that OOO would be better served by introducing new hats into the market.

    You've confused yourself and the issue by making an overly complicated (though amusing) analogy to an economic system that is not analogous.

    The matter is quite simple. I've spelled it out a couple of times, now, and my explanation remains sound. Chris's suggestion is not conducive to OOO profit. His logic and premises are flawed, as is his conclusion. Your logic and premises are also flawed, though in a different way.

    I have nothing against Chris, but he's wrong on this one. There is no reason at all to expect that a promise, by OOO, to refrain from ever introducing more Rose Regalia items (in the old colors, of course) into the game would increase OOO's profits. Indeed, there is every reason to expect that actually continuing to introduce Rose Regalia items (in the old colors) would increase OOO's profits.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:42
    #108
    Bert-Banana's picture
    Bert-Banana
    Stop the hate

    Chris is getting MAD hate through this thread, anyone who played this game when Three Rings had the promotion for the first gen regalia and that it was going to sky rocket in price when this game got more and more popular. This post was just to tell Three Rings not to release the first gen regalia and exusive items on the featured page. Instead, everyone is taking the route that Chris wants to make more money by telling Three Rings how to increase the money they are making through using their brains and thinking from an early release players standpoint. I said to my friend when the regalias came out that some people will think what they're doing and keep them and sell them when they rise in price, that's EXACTLY what happened. I'm not just talking about the regalias, this goes for the Groundbreaker too, think from Chris' position (also goes to gb owners) when you have something only obtainable through playing the beta, would you like new-comers to be wearing it?

    @Tengu I sold 1 black set for 68kce, if you want to edit my previous post, I can do that for your liking.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:46
    #109
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    ITT: trickle-down is real and

    ITT: trickle-down is real and people get mad

    how does it feel to bite the hand that feeds you

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:51
    #110
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    @Snarkey

    So if we dislike the idea, and believe that it does not work, we automatically hate the op?

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:58
    #111
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Snarkey:

    I was playing when the first Rose Regalia event happened. I have a White Rose set. I wear it routinely.

    I would like it if it remained a somewhat rare thing, but there's really no fear of that condition changing. They'd have to auction off hundreds of them (maybe thousands) before I'd actually notice any decrease in their rarity--that is, before the personal satisfaction I get from owning one would be affected at all.

    And what about newer players getting them? First off, I don't really care whether newer players get them. Secondly, newer players will be getting them anyway. Who do you think is buying them? People who did't get them in the original event, obviously. Even if I did feel like demanding that only players who were around when the event happened be allowed to own and wear the first-gen Rose Regalia items (and what sort of jerk would I be if I did) speculators like you and Chris would be actively undermining that goal by selling your stashed Rose Regalia items to newer players! Heck, I bought extra Rose Regalia items and sold them to players who didn't get them in the original event. Obviously, I don't care whether newer players get ahold of them.

    I can see an argument from this perspective for the GB sets, but then, that's a moot point--no-one got extra, saleable GB sets and GB sets have never been placed on the AH. They are, in this discussion, nothing more than a smoke-screen: entirely beside the point.

    When it comes to 1st (or 2nd) gen Rose Regalia items, your position is entirely invalid. It is nothing short of blatantly hypocritical to hold the Rose items as being something special that only those players who were around when the event happened should be allowed to wear while stockpiling Rose items from those events for future sale.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:57
    #112
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Neodasus:

    Again, I don't have anything against Chris.

    Further, promoting a course of action that would devalue some of his investments does not constitute biting the hand that feeds me.

    Your assertion that my enjoyment of this game depends on people who have stockpiled Rose Regalia items for future sale is both spurious and entirely baseless.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:08
    #113
    Bert-Banana's picture
    Bert-Banana
    @Demonic

    I am accusing the people who are writing the hate that Chris is saying this for his own being which is very untrue.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:17
    #114
    Bert-Banana's picture
    Bert-Banana
    @Loest

    Its nothing but cleverness and intelligence, anyone who stocked up on dragon wings is in the same boat.

    Shadow wings at this moment cost 22kce. The first gen regalia costed around 5kce per set when they had their debut, because it was a 50% chance to get a chapeau. Shadow wings have a 2 or 3% chance (I forget the chance) but saying the regalia increased by 30-50kce the dragon wings are going to be a rare item to get your hands on. In 6 months, I wouldn't be surprised for shadow wings to be selling for anything around 80kce. That's just my prediction.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:17
    #115
    Iron-Volvametal's picture
    Iron-Volvametal
    I have no Idea what you Guys are Talking about...

    But I Imagine it's like this.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:25
    #116
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    poor skullkid, forced to live

    poor skullkid, forced to live off of the eye crust of the oligarchy while he pretends not to notice

    @Loest

    I just figured you were the lowest common denominator here, sorry for assuming too much.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:26
    #117
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Snarkey

    I agree completely, and it doesn't bother me at all that you will make a profit on your investments.

    I made two points: first that maximizing your return-on-investment won't maximize OOO's profits and second that maintaining the rarity and prestige of these items is not a legitimate concern at the rate at which they've so-far seen auction.

    The only sound complaint one can make about the auctioning of first-gen rose items is that it reduces their value to those who invested in them.

    But, fairly obviously, that's not something that anyone but those players really cares about. Maximizing the return-on-investment from old Rose Regalia doesn't make the game better for any beyond a very small cadre of players, and that's not a good reason to ask for a policy shift on OOO's part.

    So, your last post fails to address any pertinent issue.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:27
    #118
    Iron-Volvametal's picture
    Iron-Volvametal
    ...

    Big Words don't Affect me. Sorry I'm too Young to Understand Economics & Such. It's not my Favorite Class. Now ART. That's a Class I like. :P

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:35
    #119
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    @LoestHe is actually

    @Loest

    He is actually maximizing OOO's profits by maximizing the return on his investment dude. The CE is being purchased in order to afford the item in the first place. The CE will eventually be converted into CR given that they reached a crafting-plateau, lowering the price of CE. Without merchants like that, CE would have little use to advanced players.

    edit: and yeah, I made that point too, which is why I made that post to begin with

    if you're not in the oligarchy or a f2p you really shouldn't care what players do with expensive cosmetic items

    the underlying problem here is that f2ps could possibly no longer afford energy, will not become paid accounts and so forth

    I think it's dangerous to appeal to a small group of players, because eventually the players that hold these items and CR eventually quit without putting them back into circulation. It's a dangerous thing really, and if OOO expects any longevity out of SK they need to put items on the market as a countermeasure...so F2Ps can afford to play a little more and will eventually become paid accounts

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:36
    #120
    Bert-Banana's picture
    Bert-Banana
    @Loest

    Thats what I am concerned about when being so many people joining this game later after the 1st gen promotion, they will have a very high demand and Three rings will be pulled into making money off the buyers of regalia off ah. This is un-satisfying to ME being an investor and a long time merchant knowing Three rings has their mind into pleasing the people joining this game later on in it's release.

    It also shows the experience of the player wearing the regalia, either you played this game early, or you have a lot of energy, wearing something like a black set shows supeority, which is a good rep on the veterans ^^

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:41
    #121
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    I really enjoy seeing both

    I really enjoy seeing both sides of this debate. Valid point Snarkey, but due to the nature of bound cosmetic items...after a set period of time they will have to reintroduce them, seeing as how the players that used them may have become inactive.

    edit: what this thread needs is some dev/GM attention, I hope to keep this thread alive long enough to get some...

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:42
    #122
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Neodasus

    I'm really not convinced that maximizing return on investment for rose items maximizes OOO's profit--not when it comes at the cost of potential future income generated by the resale of Rose items that haven't yet been introduced. I read your reasoning. It does not stand up to logic. It is not necessarily the case that CE is being purchased in order to afford the item, and even if it were, there's no reason to think that that pile of CE doesn't affect the seller's own future CE purchases in a manner that essentially balances the books.

    More importantly, with no influx of new Rose items, the potential profits (to OOO) of Rose item sales is effectively limited. If they continue to introduce more Rose items, that profit potential is not limited in the same way.

    Again, in order to maximize profits from Rose items, OOO would be best served by introducing Rose items at an rate optimized for profit-per-sale and rate of sales, and simple logic dictates that this rate of introduction not be zero.

    I don't see anything in your post which refutes this conclusion.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:48
    #123
    Iron-Volvametal's picture
    Iron-Volvametal
    Hmm...

    "after a set period of time they will have to reintroduce them, seeing as how the players that used them may have become inactive."

    If you've Played AQWorlds before, once they've made something Rare, it Stays Rare. But if OOO's Generous enough to do Re-Releases, that would be Fantastic.

    ...

    Wait...

    I Hate Regalia Items! D:<

    EDIT: Also, if you've Played LittleBigPlanet, Rare BETA Stuff, like the Gas Mask & Vest are ONLY Given to those Who Participated/Found Bugs in the BETA. If they Re-Release Groundbreakers, it would be Natural to see someone Displeased.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:48
    #124
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    As a post-rose player I

    As a post-rose player I really have nothing to say about that.

    I'm referring to cosmetic items in general.

    edit: the number of players that actually own the regalia sets is incredibly small...I'm referring to future items such as the dragon wings

    This is why I said I am both for and against what Chris suggested, simply because I can't see 3-4 players trading the set over and over again just for the hell of it. They're just rich players, not a shadow society.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:50
    #125
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    From Chris's posts, he says

    From Chris's posts, he says OOO makes profit when the ce is used. Which is true, as it creates a net ce gain of negative. However, the ce used in buying cosmetics at a inflating rate won't all be used up.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:19
    #126
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Snarkey

    I don't think it's necessarily legitimate to say that ownership of a rose regalia item denotes experience. After all, a new player willing to spend 100 bucks on CE can just show up and buy one if he or she wants, no experience required.

    That said, it's probably true that, in general, Rose Regalia owners are fairly experienced, especially when it comes to the first generation pieces.

    More importantly, I can understand your dissatisfaction to an extent, but I do not share it. Again, I am in a position that is essentially very similar to yours (though I've already sold all of the rose items I stockpiled) but I just don't equate the occasional auctioned White Rose set with the preferential treatment of newer players. I want OOO to make money. I want new players to like and be excited about the game. When I see a newer player get a cool new item, it's a good thing--not a bad thing. It makes me like the game more, not less. Belonging to an exclusive club to which all new players are barred entry (except by paying some exorbitant fee to someone who's already a member) is not a prerequisite to my enjoyment.

    I guess I can see how it might be to yours, but I find myself unsympathetic to that emotional stance. I would encourage you to suck in your pride a little bit and welcome the occasional new player into the club rather than fending them off so desperately. It's really not so bad, and you'll still make a killing from your stock-piled rose hats.

    Also, Neodasus makes a good point. I know of several Rose items that have essentially been removed from the game because their owners have become inactive. The Rose items are a cool part of the game. It would truly be a shame if they were to become so rare that no-one ever really sees them.

    Edit:
    To Neodasus:

    It's true that the same principles apply to more recent and potential future cosmetic item releases.

    What I would really like to see is this: OOO should release a statement making it clear that no cosmetic items will be sacrosanct (barring Groundbreaker)--that all may be released again in the future, whether via the Featured Auction system or some other mechanic. This would prevent investors from developing unreasonable expectations for their investments and significantly limit the potential for negative backlash of this sort in the future.

    I would also like OOO to be responsible about re-introducing this type of content. I would be irritated if they just gave a white rose hat to everyone for free. It may be selfish, but I do have a line and it's somewhere between there and where we're at now. I think, though, that I trust them to handle this sort of thing in a reasonable fashion, and I think the manner in which it has been handled, to-date, is pretty reasonable.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:01
    #127
    Guyinshinyarmour
    --

    @Snarkey
    You bellyache about your investment tanking. Why not get rid of it if it's toxic? Hm? No, you'd rather try to get OOO to fix it for you. Well guess what? Some investments tank, just like in the real world, and there is no reason for OOO to bail you out or guarantee your asset. And just like the real world, if you've put all your eggs in one basket, you're an idiot. I suspect that you wouldn't lose much, since you've probably spread your money everywhere and are generally not an idiot.
    ________________________

    It doesn't help that people who invest in what are utterly useless items are fools. Those items have their value due to one tentative thing; rarity. Vanity. Far better to keep rooted in something that has actual use in or benefit to the game. Hell, I suspect that it's what all the merchants truly make their money off of; these gear trades. Off something with a rather concrete value rather than stuff that's heavily speculated at best. Else you play a dangerous game, and you shouldn't be surprised if you get burned.

    One interesting thing to keep in mind is if you bought the 1st gen rose pack and got the hat out of that, there is NO WAY that you have lost any money in your investment, since you literally got the hat for nothing (it was a bonus from buying ce from OOO at the time). It's all profit. You've only lost potential that doesn't exist anymore and that may or may not come back.

    I'm sick of people trying to bring "party hat" bull to this game. At least OOO is making some sort of effort to prevent that on some level. This thread, at its very heart, is about trying to introduce more of those items into the game. Limited edition items that have no way to enter the game, but are still tradeable. All this talk of Rose sets is merely a tangent.

    Oh, wait, I was gonna add quotes to support the previous paragraph (that is, show where he said he wanted new, tradeable, guaranteed limited edition items added to the game), but it seems Chris decided to blank his first post. How childish. He can't deal with the noise, so he takes his ball and goes home. Guess I'll just post this now and let the thread die.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:25
    #128
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Chris:

    "Thank you to the people who were able to post here without bias"

    No problem. I'm glad you have come to appreciate my contributions.

    That said, I think the discussion would have been better served if you had left your original post intact, so that people who didn't participate in the thread at the outset could see how it originated.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:58
    #129
    Orangeo's picture
    Orangeo
    I missed it. Damn. "Reread

    I missed it. Damn.

    "Reread the initial posting, and pretend that someone else wrote it."
    I personaly reread everyting in stephen colberts voice. You are now doomed to do the same.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:21
    #130
    Bert-Banana's picture
    Bert-Banana
    Guyinshinyarmour

    I am going to make my own decisions and risks with the pieces in my arsenal. I was just stating the facts and possibilities through what can happen and my opinions on what Three Rings should do to satisfy everyone in Spiral Knights. Don't need anyone telling me what I have to do with my items. Thanks for the advice though.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:54
    #131
    Nodocchi's picture
    Nodocchi
    Did anyone happen to save

    Did anyone happen to save Chris' first post? I haven't had time to read this thread but am extremely curious now as to what Chris actually posted in his first post.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:01
    #132
    Noomad's picture
    Noomad
    ...wat

    After reading the new first post, I now dislike Chris immensely.

    Anyway, I really enjoyed reading your post Neodasus (I'm shifting from mathematics to actuarial sciences, its fun seeing all these terms pop up :P), a lot of my beliefs on the f2p economics of mmos and this game in particular have been affirmed. The featured auctions are a great crown sink as well as a way to lower the prices of rare accessories and costumes.

    However, the point of this thread was about the costumes, which only trade hands a few times and doesn't end up actually burning ce like the armors do with unbinding and the like. Groundbreaker excluded (for obvious reasons), I believe OOO should re-release everything at some point over the AH. Its definitely a rare occurrence in mmos to do this, but I think creating a plateau in the value in these items will benefit the community as a whole.

    That, or pump out cool awesome costumes at a faster rate.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:23
    #133
    Retequizzle's picture
    Retequizzle
    Aw. I completely forgot

    Aw. I completely forgot about this thread's existence up until about 10 minutes ago, but now I'm saddened that no one replied to my post on the first page.

    And now I'm too lazy to read the rest of the thread without using Ctrl+F for "Rete" so I'm gonna assume mostly everyone moved on by now anyway.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 22:20
    #134
    Neodasus's picture
    Neodasus
    We're pretty much being

    We're pretty much being flooded by "limited-edition" cosmetic items, ever since the redux of regalia.

    Anyone remember Beanie-Babies? Yeah, of course you don't. We're the generation that forgot what they were, so nobody really buys them anymore. A shame too, since they were limited-edition and supposedly worth some decent coin.

    OOO sure knows what they're doing...

    @Noomad

    Good to know that someone is interested in becoming an actuary. It really is an exciting profession, I practically grew up around them. Anyways what would really set this game straight is an in-game price list within the auction house. Perhaps an "average price" highlight would help, but ultimately you are right, eventually they will have to re-release these items as these players quit.

    Just so everyone remembers: the Runescape economy was so bad before I stopped playing...they had to centralize the marketplace and put everything through a system similar to the NASDAQ, just because of inflation caused by limited-edition items and the fact that scamming really got out of hand. It literally made the shift from trading commodities to "Fighting crap with swords and maybe selling stuff on the side"

    Just putting that out there, OOO. There's a way to play the system without cheating it, and you're going to have to make that possible.

    Fri, 02/17/2012 - 22:32
    #135
    Tengu's picture
    Tengu
    Neodasus, I learned my

    Neodasus, I learned my lessons on beanie babies. That's why I'm so anti-retail.

    :::slides the door to his temperature controlled room with 748 pairs of tiny colorful eyes staring at his exit:::

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 12:25
    #136
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Chris's argument, in his own words

    Though Chris's first post has been effectively deleted, he re-posited much of his argument, with a little embellishment, elsewhere throughout the thread. For those of you who are interested, here's a compilation of his argument:

    -----------------------------------

    Before the featured auction, I saw several black sets go for 80k ce. After the featured auction, people are struggling to sell for 60k ce. What needs to be understood is that every person who buys a set for 80k ce instead of 60k ce is giving 20k ce MORE into the wallets of Three Rings.

    -----------------------------------

    ...all CE ever traded has to be bought. If an item is traded for 20k more CE than it would have been that means 20k more CE had to have been bought. This is a very simple principle.

    -----------------------------------

    It does create new CE, as the CE had to come from somebody. If I buy something for 80k ce instead of 60k ce, I had to get the extra CE from somebody, which will lead back to it being bought with real money. The concepts I presented are EXTREMELY complicated/deep economic principles and if you don't understand them you will have to just trust me rather than trying to prove them wrong when you actually just don't understand.


    There are literally thousands of factors that go into it.

    -----------------------------------

    You are correct in that when 20k ce is NOT bought because of a set being sold for 60k rather than 80k the actual value of that 20k ce is more around 18k or 16k because there is less CE in the market.

    -----------------------------------

    I don't know how I can make this concept any simpler:



    Someone buys a costume for 100k ce and then perm binds it to themselves.
    100k CE has just been burned. This CE had to be bought.



    Someone buys a costume for 50k ce and then perm binds it to themselves.
    50k ce has just been burned. This CE had to be bought.



    In one case 50k more ce is being used, it's not being transferred, it's being burned and no longer exists in the game as currency.



    I'm not talking about sets being traded to other merchants, as this rarely happens when they reach a high price plateau.

    -----------------------------------

    The point of my post was that BINDING an item you buy for 80k ce instead of 60k ce is DIRECTLY taking 20k ce out of the game which had to be bought.

    -----------------------------------

    Here is a simple market fact:



    When somebody buys 20k energy, three rings doesn't ACTUALLY make $50 until all of that energy is burned somehow in-game. This is one of the many factors in my first post I have chosen not to expand on.



    Also, regarding elevator passes, the more CE is burned on a costume item, the less CE in circulation, which means CE is more valuable which means elevator passes will be more demanded. Just another way my first post effects other parts of the economy.



    ...you need to understand that when a set is bound, the CE IS removed from the game. I'm not talking about the moving of sets from merchant to merchant, this seems to be a common misconception in this thread.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 09:03
    #137
    Alknighty
    @Loest

    When somebody buys 20k energy, three rings doesn't ACTUALLY make $50 until all of that energy is burned somehow in-game. This is one of the many factors in my first post I have chosen not to expand on.

    And I think this is a simple counter argument to the "complex" economical theory that Chris brought up. The deciding factor, is still in the buyer's hands. OOO doesn't make money until the buyers decide to use up that energy for said purpose (buy overpriced accessories / costumes from other users). If buyers do not see the values in these accessories / costumes, while guys like OP continue to jack up prices without ceiling. The result is a market bubble, much like the US Housing Bubble in 2008. Why? Because said people are effectively asking for a cheap Call option by telling OOO to not re-issue these items.

    Of course OOO should re-issue these "limited" items. They have been doing the right thing with the featured auction. I would further recommend them to consider re-issuing these items in the form of energy packs also to further keep the bubbles from building up.

    One last thing for the audience to ponder (and this has been brought up earlier in Neodasus' post on securities). When top spending players (like Chris) have accumulated a ridiculous amount of CE, do you still think they would share the same desire to purchase CE with real money? And what if said players quit the game because they feel there are nothing more to do? The CE (together with whatever rare accessories / costumes) will go down with these players. Result is as Loest said, OOO doesn't make money because the CE hasn't been burned.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 11:15
    #138
    Rubyeclipse's picture
    Rubyeclipse
    Hey Chris, With respect to

    Hey Chris,

    With respect to Eury's request, I'm not going to respond to this thread or your provocations here with any further responses, following this one. Happy to continue the discussion elsewhere.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 11:33
    #139
    Nodocchi's picture
    Nodocchi
    I feel like I am missing

    I feel like I am missing something. How is the CE people spent buying overpriced costumes from other players ever burned or consumed at all? That 80k CE someone spent to buy a costume transferred hands but until it is actually used on a CE sink provided by OOO, it hasn't really been used up. That 80k CE will stay in circulation until someone uses it in an elevator or for crafting or unbinding. Where is all this new revenue that OOO would get? The only way OOO would make money from this is if people actually bought $50 worth of energy for the express purpose of buying a 80k CE ccostume piece. I am having a hard time believing that if someone is willing to pay that much for a costume that there aren't other ways for OOO to get money from such a person. Most likely people would have bought energy regardless of whether they wanted to buy that costume. Buying that costume was just one of the many ways that a player could have spent that energy and it isn't even the best way in terms of profit for OOO.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 11:58
    #140
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    @Loest

    Forgive me for being uninformed in the way this market works, no sarcasm intended. I truly don't understand how binding or otherwise destroying a costume piece removes ce from the market.

    The first three sentences from Nodocchi is really what I am wondering.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 12:13
    #141
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Demonicsothe:

    The more you post, the less convinced I am that we actually disagree.

    I also don't understand how binding or otherwise destroying a costume piece removes CE from the market. As far as I can tell, it does not.

    Chris made that claim and I took exception to it.

    I do not think that binding a Rose Hat destroys any CE at all, much less an amount of CE equal to its sale price.

    I agree with Nodocchi entirely.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:02
    #142
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    I'm not sure who I disagree

    I'm not sure who I disagree with in this thread besides Chris. From what I've seen the supporters of his ideas gave no real claim why, besides neodasus.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:11
    #143
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Demonicsothe:

    i also disagree with Chris.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:14
    #144
    Fehzor's picture
    Fehzor
    @Demonic

    Read my response on page 2 Demonic, as I gave a reason why. It took me quite a while understand, but I do think he is correct in his claim that guaranteeing a limit to the number of these items would generate revenue for OOO, as well as player satisfaction. And yes, I do think its still at least a bit out of greed that he has posted this. But that doesn't mean its incorrect.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:24
    #145
    Jcasdfqwer's picture
    Jcasdfqwer
    "...you need to understand

    "...you need to understand that when a set is bound, the CE IS removed from the game. I'm not talking about the moving of sets from merchant to merchant, this seems to be a common misconception in this thread."

    It's funny how the word "bind" was not included in Chris' original post at all before he deleted it (most likely to prevent more people from realizing this). The entire point of this thread was not to convince people that binding costumes removes CE from the game (which is definitely not true), but to cease the featured auctions of rose chapeaus and tabards with the idea that selling something for 80k CE rather than 60k CE guarantees a 20k CE profit for OOO (also definitely not true). I don't know Chris well but I'm starting to understand why people dislike him. When you're incapable of having a logical debate, proclaim your own "advanced" knowledge in marketing and abandon the conversation altogether -rolls eyes-.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:28
    #146
    Demonicsothe's picture
    Demonicsothe
    Went back and read it, not

    Went back and read it, not sure what you were speaking of in that post. Then the post under yours caught my eye.

    Quoted from Loest:

    "While the first part is correct (all CE ever traded has to be bought) the second part does not follow from it.

    It is not the case that if an item is traded for 20k CE more than it would have been otherwise, that 20k more CE has been bought than would have been bought otherwise. There's really no reason, in fact, to think that that 20k extra CE wouldn't have still been purchased and simply used for something else, instead. Also remember that the extra 20k CE would go to another player, which may well reduce the amount of CE that player buys in the future."

    This why I don't think the plan Chris had put forward would work.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:32
    #147
    Loest's picture
    Loest
    Fehzor

    To sum up the argument you seem to be presenting in that post:

    Maximizing the value of hats pools more CE in the hands of richer players. Richer players value the CE less, and (as a result) waste the CE more, thus generating more CE sales?

    This argument is fundamentally different from the one that Chris was making, but I think it stands up better. It is true that the accumulation of CE in the hands of richer players effectively reduces the total value of CE in the market (that is, not the amount of CE but the sum of the values that each player places in their own stash) which could reasonably be expected to result in some amount of extra CE sales. I think it would be very tricky, though, to quantify those extra sales, and I think it's important to remember that the amount of CE being purchased to facilitate inter-player hat sales can only be maximized through continued hat releases. The two would have to be balanced against each other, and that's not math that I have the data or expertise to do.

    I do suspect, however, that the extra CE sales that result from aggregation of wealth in the hands of speculators would prove to be, upon analysis, essentially trivial.

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 14:22
    #148
    Mohandar's picture
    Mohandar
    relationship between CE and OOO's revenue

    I take issue with the statement that OOO does not make money until CE is burned. Every unit of CE in-game basically came into existence because someone paid OOO up front to obtain it. OOO's total revenue is, roughly speaking, total $ amount of CE ever burned (elevators, crafting, unbinding, bribes, revives) + total $ amount of CE currently existing in-game.
    I can see how extant CE might affect future purchases; are you implying that extant CE is basically the equivalent of an advance on a paycheck, and that OOO is effectively borrowing from the future until the CE is burned?

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 14:52
    #149
    Noomad's picture
    Noomad
    @Mohandar

    Both are essentially true. It all depends on how you're looking at it. Starting from the beginning, yes, you must pay OOO money to get your ce. If you look at it directly from the middle, though, you must get rid of your ce to need more ce and then give OOO your money for the new ce. Looking at things from different perspectives like this can often lead to new realizations and conclusions about economics n stuff.

    I'm sure chris is right about most of the things he said. But without providing information about his viewing perspective, how can he believe people will accept his arguments at face value?

    Sat, 02/18/2012 - 14:53
    #150
    Nicoya-Kitty's picture
    Nicoya-Kitty
    I think Chris's underlying

    I think Chris's underlying argument is "OOO should make Chris item-rich, so he can sell items to other players for vastly inflated amounts of CE, which Chris promises he will then waste on shadow keys and rage crafting".

    At least, that's the only logically consistent argument I can pull out of his incoherent ramblings.

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