Spiral Knights - The drop rate of these rings is stupid

The drop rate of these rings is stupid

37 replies [Last post]

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:46

Chainguy

Seerusly, it is. I just finished getting enough mats to craft all the reskins, i just need elite orbs and the recipes then i can start crafting them.

I have:
253 Indestructible Giftwarp
518 Bottomless Stocking
528 Razor Ribbon
652 Lump Of Coal
605 Spoiled Treat

And you must be wondering, what's the main point of this topic? Well, guess what. From all that grinding, that is around 70-100 runs, and i burned over 150+ SoL. I had around, well idk, like 532 SoL. Now i am down to 373. The biggest reason of this main topic is that....

Not an single ring dropped from all these runs. Almost all my runs were to the boss, and even then, either ring didn't drop. I want a directly answer from OOO on this. not you community, and not you too through that fourth wall of yours. No, i do not believe at all i am unlucky, i say the drop rates are broken. It's like hunting the Book Of Dark Rituals all over again back in Kataclysm. This was on Elite at all times mind you.

This is just bullcrap to be honest. Although i already got a grand ring (Which i brought at AH with a 500k bid), i wanted a 2nd one to fill my trinket slots. I hate to buy the rings at the AH, but i got no choice now.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:52

Glacies

This is basically how everything was with the Black Kat fiasco, I didn't get my Book of Dark Rituals despite the fact that I went through enough Black Kats to craft all the 5*, 4*, and 3* hoods and still have Tokens leftover.

It's just sheer-luck, nothing more.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:53

Bitsbee

"I want a directly answer from OOO on this. not you community..."

Then why are you here...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:57

Chainguy

@Bitsbee

Cause i want people to feel my pain, i worked my butt off at this. In fact, i got so mad at one point, that i came close to posting a rant topic about the mender healing the boss, cause it was out healing my blitz needle at times, even with the damage increase from reviving with a SoL.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:43

Flowchart

I did this mission way too many times as well and made enough money to just buy one of the rings on AH since at least they weren't stupidly priced.

I never see random parties doing this anymore either, guess they all ran out of sparks lol.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:43

Vesperaldus

Drop rates are biased.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:02

Skepticraven

Heh.

Welcome to statistics, where if something is rare - its less stressful to buy from someone else.

Also, didnt make a rant topic about menders?

Also x2, I stopped forming random parties about a week ago because that's when I finished farming my mats (and was lucky enough to snag a free grand ring - all at about half the sparks that the OP used).

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:37

Draycos

This is why a token system is so much better than flat RNG. There's a chance, however miniscule, that you'd NEVER get a book of dark rituals or a solstice ring.

Imagine if boss-related equipment was only dropped by pure chance rather than through tokens.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:54

Chainguy

@Skepticraven

That wasn't a rant in fact, it looked like the amount the mender was healing for more then it was shown. In case you got confused, the rant i came close to posting was about the mender being able to heal the boss. I just find that so bullcrap, which is why i kill myself to get rid of my ER to use SoL to nuke the boss.

Also to note, a bug: sometimes when you revive with SoL, you don't get the damage increase. This in fact caused me to spend 5 SoL once on the boss because i didn't get the damage increase twice in a row, and getting killed before i could kill the boss fast enough.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:00

Aesn

And this, is why Im not participating in this event at all.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:43

#10

Whimsicality

Want a response from the admins? Don't cry to us.

http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Support_Portal

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:01

#11

Aplauses

Cause i want people to feel my pain
Hmph..

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:16

#12

Hexzyle

Cause i want people to feel my pain and laugh at it
Is what I read.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:36

#13

Chainguy

Another victim of corruption

Now you guys just show that this community is becoming corrupted. great, just great. Another game becoming slowly consumed by corruption of trolls, "don't care" people, and what not. I give up with these forums, I don't see the point of posting if you guys just treat people like crap.

Go on, take advantage of this you trolls, send your troll king or whatever at me. Ima go as far as to ask OOO to ban me from these corrupted forums. Happy now corrupted community?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:41

#14

Whimsicality

Nobody's forcing you to play optional content for something that was intended to be a rare drop that isn't worth the effort in the slightest.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:51

#15

Dragneel-Wiki

RNG, it's cool.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:37

#16

Corewalker

Hiss.

First of all, I would like to mention that your reaction to this fact is occurring after you already bought a ring. You have one of the end products already, hiss. You're simply going for perfection now.

Anyway, to the meat of my point.

Who do you think you are, hiss.

First of all, it is not our fault that the drop rates are ridiculously miniscule.

Second of all, we are not obligated to sympathize with you. This mission is not mandatory for progression of any sort, and the rings stats are nowhere near overwhelming, They are easily outshone by penta trinkets, and even the free gift of autumn trinket we got holds a candle to the winter solstice ring.

You have a lot of nerve attempting to get a community to feel the pain of a knight who -chose- to make himself feel that pain for a gadget that wasn't worth it.

Now, because you have a lot of nerve, I believe it is fitting that you receive the negative responses aforementioned, hiss. You could have chosen to stop playing, you could have been satisfied with the one you got. But you did not, you were not, and we care not. Hiss.

And it's better that way. The best we could say is "sorry you chose to waste your time" or a variant.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 10:15

#17

Drischa

Corrupted community

So, the people trying to say that the game they love is good, are corrupt, and you, the one who is ranting at innocent developers because a RANDOM number generator the same used in all games eer has not caused a few pixels to appear on your screen.

In world of tanks, there is an RNG for eery shot you fire

No shot will land exactly where you aim and some may not go anywhere near or hit the wrong place

You know what the community does?

They moan to the computer, not the devs, and after a while they deal with it.

What you're doing is like shouting at a lion then complaining to the zoo when it bites your arm off.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 13:54

#18

Shamanalah

my 2 cents

Cause i want people to feel my pain, i worked my butt off at this.

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

If you think you worked a lot on RNG, you only at the tip of the iceberg...

I would love to see your face trying to loot a Zod rune on D2 back then.... with 0.0000001571905 drop rate on chaos mobs

RNG man, you can't dictate it... you can bring your lucky underwear and your tin foil hat, it will still screw you

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 14:01

#19

Thunderskull

RNG is an independant women who need no man in her life.

Random Numbers are completely random it can make one feel like the unluckiest organism or it came make you the luckiest devil on earth... 2 hours into the first kataclysm event, my first wild black kat gave me the BOOK.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:52

#20

Hexzyle

I have to "care" about every little issue people have?

Now you are just showing that this community is becoming corrupted. great, just great. Another game becoming slowly consumed by corruption of trolls, "nerf plox" people, and what not. I give up with these forums, I don't see the point of reading if you guys just treat the forums like it's your blog.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:33

#21

Draycos

Some people might take it as a fun challenge to see how insulting and offensive they can be while still within the forum rules.

Certainly what it feels like to me, at times.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 01:24

#22

Fehzor

As nice as it'd be, the item seriously isn't worth getting.

Look on the bright side- at least you're getting the reskins out of this! OOO just happened to plan their event around winterfest, when I won't be able to play the game at all... seeing family and friends takes priority over Spiral Knights, and my PC lives at my house where I currently do not.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 02:12

#23

Blue-Flood

I got the book of dark rituals on my first kat first time trying...
sorry bro.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 03:35

#24

Grugwasasailor

TRU FACTS

Blueflood only got the book of dark rituals after spontaneously hopping into MY party with a Black Kat spawn and this was pre-update before the book drops were nerfed.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 03:38

#25

Blue-Flood

My version sounds better :)

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 04:40

#26

Grantgalitz

Wonder if it's "rigged"

I wonder if playing on an older unused account will "magically" make these uncommon items drop more. I've personally confirmed it with iron lockboxes and all types of orbs (15 orbs and an iron lockbox in 2 hours, while another account got less orbs in a week and no lockboxes in 2 months (lockboxes also have been confirmed to almost never ever drop if you have extras or don't open them. Also having keys increases the drop rates. Either way, this has been empirically proven.)). I wouldn't be surprised if OOO had code on the servers to lure old players who quit back in with these heightened drop rates...

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 05:05

#27

Skepticraven

@Gratgalitz

I beg to differ, seeing as I have 6 iron lockboxes at the moment and they still keep coming at a very slow rate.
Also, I am the only one that I know of to actually show an attempt at recording enough data for Orb drop rates. I've had depths where I got 3 orbs and chains of 50+ depths where I've gotten 0 orbs. They are both luck based and I have not seen this phenomena you speak of.

Please show me the data supporting your "personal confirmation" and "empirical proof".

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 05:52

#28

Grantgalitz

@skepticraven

Talking to others, and many acknowledging for instance iron lockboxes very often immediately drop within an hour of opening one. I've played on multiple vanguard alts and opened a fair share of boxes, having them does lower their rate (obviously doesn't stop it, but retaining boxes very much lowers it). I've had a lot of friends say they've gotten orbs and sparks like crazy within the first hour of playing, then the next day they can't find any. No spreadsheets as we're playing the game, not using excel in the background.

I will say that iron lockboxes as a hard fact have their rates heavily increased when you open one, and decreased with more you fail to open. Orb numbers do vary like you said, but I'm bringing it up as it's a pattern I've noticed myself with a few others. It does make sense for OOO to do it though, so I wouldn't blame them.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 05:54

#29

Zaffy-Laffy

You know why you guys are so lucky in your drops? Because you kept stealing the luck from me and others, especially me. Never have I had a book of rituals, never have I had a mirrored lockbox, and in my whole game lifespan, had I only received 2 iron lockboxes.

I can conclude that luck is a very real life factor that bestows within everyone, and grants favor/disfavor towards one's life outcome.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 06:47

#30

Skepticraven

@Gratgalitz

Aah, so what you're saying is it is all anecdotal. I've proved theories like yours wrong before with actual data, for example 4 boss tokens have little or nothing to do with speed of killing a boss, the entire run, or damage taken. Theories are fine to have, but DO NOT say they are confirmed without very good data to support it.

I'm avoiding doing the chance rate for the wheel at the end of depths because I can already predict I would need a massive quantity of datapoints to get reasonable numbers - as I've only gotten 1 mirrored lockbox in my entire time playing.

The only data that I know of relating to this thread can be found here, where there isn't enough data yet to estimate the drop rates of the trinkets (but speculation puts them around 1%).

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 07:05

#31

Thunder-The-Bright

gods ain't gonna help you, son.

zaffy, I know that feel, I'm in that phase too. except, I've always been unlucky on my own, so it's not a problem for me.
luck is luck, you can do nothing about it. fact is, with enough luck you can find a bucket of luck lying around, while you can't do that with unluck.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 16:07

#32

Plancker

Could it be a possibility

Could it be a possibility that if you have to spark during the mission, you dont get a trinket drop?

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 00:48

#33

Fehzor

I suppose it *could* be possible, but I really doubt that it is the case. Selection bias seems the most likely culprit.

We could attempt to run tests of some sort on it as well, but it would be hard to get enough trials with such low odds.

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 01:44

#34

Grantgalitz

@Skepticraven

The amount of times this has happened places the statistical probability of what I'm saying as wrong as way below 1% (You might give doubt to the having keys in your inventory part though, seems to be reported as a smaller chance modifier). This is much easier to discern than the way 4 tokens at boss rather than 3 is decided mentioned. On the other hand, I will give some doubt to the orb drops, as OOO always plays with their drop rates and can't keep it stable. I'm not saying OOO is working in absolutes and won't drop a box if you have one, or within 30 seconds will if you do open one, what I am saying is they manipulate their probabilities to a degree as a fact on the server when you do said actions.

You betcha I'll say it's confirmed that opening iron lockboxes increases their drop rate odds, along with keeping unused ones around lowering it. I've opened them more times than I care to admit to (Along with not opening boxes for months on end). I'm not a 1 month old account claiming this, I've been on for over two years now in this game. :I

I'm not the only one to have mentioned this on the forums, there's other threads that mention this from months/years back.

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/39828#comment-250186

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 02:02

#35

Krakob

Nononono
Your ring drop rate gets multiplied by the amount of sparks used during the mission, ofc.

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 03:49

#36

Grantgalitz

I love it when threads get graveyarded to hide things.

Sun, 12/29/2013 - 07:20

#37

Skepticraven

@Grantgalitz

I read it, but I still disagree - and will continue to disagree until I see data (which you have already explained does not exist yet). People make theories all the time because they think it influences luck. How many sports players have "lucky routines"? I'm rather skeptical that just because you have a few people stating that they think this influences the rates with anecdotal evidence and no strong data to support it. Did they play LD the entire 2 months they didn't get a drop? Maybe playing LD increases chances then? How many wheel spins have they done (were they on vacation/in school for 2 months and got it during a break when they play more often)? What are the "with iron lockbox" rates and the compared "without iron lockbox" rates (I sure hope it has enough samples for each to pass a student's T-test)? The thing is they don't tell me. I get no idea of how many times they used the prize wheel for things. As a statistician, I accept the null hypothesis of "nothing interesting is going on here".

I've heard plenty of people claim that speed in a boss fight determines the chances for 4 tokens, and then proceeded to prove them wrong (with 100+ speedruns and only a small percentage 4 tokens). Lots of people would stand by saying this was confirmed (and probably still do) because a lot of people believe(d) it.

Anyways, I'll let this thread rest now. If you (directed to Grantgalitz) want to continue this discussion on things influencing drop rates, please make another thread about it and I will surely comment.

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The drop rate of these rings is stupid